BackgroundIn patients clinically suspected of having pulmonary embolism (PE), physicians often rely on intuitive estimation (“gestalt”) of PE presence. Although shown to be predictive, gestalt is... Show moreBackgroundIn patients clinically suspected of having pulmonary embolism (PE), physicians often rely on intuitive estimation (“gestalt”) of PE presence. Although shown to be predictive, gestalt is criticized for its assumed variation across physicians and lack of standardization.ObjectivesTo assess the diagnostic accuracy of gestalt in the diagnosis of PE and gain insight into its possible variation.MethodsWe performed an individual patient data meta-analysis including patients suspected of having PE. The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy of gestalt for the diagnosis of PE, quantified as risk ratio (RR) between gestalt and PE based on 2-stage random-effect log-binomial meta-analysis regression as well as gestalts’ sensitivity and specificity. The variability of these measures was explored across different health care settings, publication period, PE prevalence, patient subgroups (sex, heart failure, chronic lung disease, and items of the Wells score other than gestalt), and age.ResultsWe analyzed 20 770 patients suspected of having PE from 16 original studies. The prevalence of PE in patients with and without a positive gestalt was 28.8% vs 9.1%, respectively. The overall RR was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.35-3.87), and the overall sensitivity and specificity were 74% (95% CI, 68%-79%) and 61% (95% CI, 53%-68%), respectively. Although variation was observed across individual studies (I2, 90.63%), the diagnostic accuracy was consistent across all subgroups and health care settings.ConclusionA positive gestalt was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of PE in suspected patients. Although variation was observed across studies, the RR of gestalt was similar across prespecified subgroups and health care settings, exemplifying its diagnostic value for all patients suspected of having PE. Show less
AimsRisk stratification is used for decisions regarding need for imaging in patients with clinically suspected acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim was to develop a clinical prediction model that... Show moreAimsRisk stratification is used for decisions regarding need for imaging in patients with clinically suspected acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim was to develop a clinical prediction model that provides an individualized, accurate probability estimate for the presence of acute PE in patients with suspected disease based on readily available clinical items and D-dimer concentrations.Methods and resultsAn individual patient data meta-analysis was performed based on sixteen cross-sectional or prospective studies with data from 28 305 adult patients with clinically suspected PE from various clinical settings, including primary care, emergency care, hospitalized and nursing home patients. A multilevel logistic regression model was built and validated including ten a priori defined objective candidate predictors to predict objectively confirmed PE at baseline or venous thromboembolism (VTE) during follow-up of 30 to 90 days. Multiple imputation was used for missing data. Backward elimination was performed with a P-value <0.10. Discrimination (c-statistic with 95% confidence intervals [CI] and prediction intervals [PI]) and calibration (outcome:expected [O:E] ratio and calibration plot) were evaluated based on internal-external cross-validation. The accuracy of the model was subsequently compared with algorithms based on the Wells score and D-dimer testing. The final model included age (in years), sex, previous VTE, recent surgery or immobilization, haemoptysis, cancer, clinical signs of deep vein thrombosis, inpatient status, D-dimer (in µg/L), and an interaction term between age and D-dimer. The pooled c-statistic was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.85–0.89; 95% PI, 0.77–0.93) and overall calibration was very good (pooled O:E ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87–1.14; 95% PI, 0.55–1.79). The model slightly overestimated VTE probability in the lower range of estimated probabilities. Discrimination of the current model in the validation data sets was better than that of the Wells score combined with a D-dimer threshold based on age (c-statistic 0.73; 95% CI, 0.70–0.75) or structured clinical pretest probability (c-statistic 0.79; 95% CI, 0.76–0.81).ConclusionThe present model provides an absolute, individualized probability of PE presence in a broad population of patients with suspected PE, with very good discrimination and calibration. Its clinical utility needs to be evaluated in a prospective management or impact study. Show less
The risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation for a combined oral contraceptive (COC)-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic... Show moreThe risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation for a combined oral contraceptive (COC)-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the incidence of recurrent VTE among women with COC-associated VTE, unprovoked VTE and to compare the incidence of recurrent VTE between the two groups. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase Classic +Embase and Medline ALL to July 2020 and citations from included studies were searched. Randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and meta-analyses of these study types were selected. The analysis was conducted by random-effects model. Nineteen studies were identified including 1537 women [5828 person-years (PY)] with COC-associated VTE and 1974 women (7798 PY) with unprovoked VTE. Studies were at low risk of bias. The incidence rate of VTE recurrence was 1.22/100 PY [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.62, I-2 = 6%] in women with COC-associated VTE, 3.89/100 PY (95% CI 2.93-5.17, I-2 = 74%) in women with unprovoked VTE and the unadjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.34 (95% CI 0.26-0.46, I-2 = 3%). The recurrence risk in women after COC-associated VTE is low and lower than after an unprovoked VTE. Show less
Background: How diagnostic strategies for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) perform in relevant patient subgroups defined by sex, age, cancer, and previous venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown.... Show moreBackground: How diagnostic strategies for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) perform in relevant patient subgroups defined by sex, age, cancer, and previous venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. Purpose: To evaluate the safety and efficiency of the Wells and revised Geneva scores combined with fixed and adapted D-dimer thresholds, as well as the YEARS algorithm, for ruling out acute PE in these subgroups. Data Sources: MEDLINE from 1 January 1995 until 1 January 2021. Study Selection: 16 studies assessing at least 1 diagnostic strategy. Data Extraction: Individual-patient data from 20553 patients. Data Synthesis: Safety was defined as the diagnostic failure rate (the predicted 3-month VTE incidence after exclusion of PE without imaging at baseline). Efficiency was defined as the proportion of individuals classified by the strategy as "PE con -sidered excluded" without imaging tests. Across all strategies, efficiency was highest in patients younger than 40 years (47% to 68%) and lowest in patients aged 80 years or older (6.0% to 23%) or patients with cancer (9.6% to 26%). However, efficiency improved considerably in these subgroups when pretest probabil-ity-dependent D-dimer thresholds were applied. Predicted failure rates were highest for strategies with adapted D-dimer thresh-olds, with failure rates varying between 2% and 4% in the pre-defined patient subgroups. Limitations: Between-study differences in scoring predictor items and D-dimer assays, as well as the presence of differential verifica-tion bias, in particular for classifying fatal events and subsegmental PE cases, all of which may have led to an overestimation of the predicted failure rates of adapted D-dimer thresholds. Conclusion: Overall, all strategies showed acceptable safety, with pretest probability-dependent D-dimer thresholds having not only the highest efficiency but also the highest predicted failure rate. From an efficiency perspective, this individual-patient data meta-analysis supports application of adapted D-dimer thresholds. Primary Funding Source: Dutch Research Council. (PROSPERO: CRD42018089366) Show less
Background: The incidence of pulmonary embolism has been increasing, but its case-fatality rate is decreasing, sug-gesting a lesser severity of illness. The clinical importance of patients with... Show moreBackground: The incidence of pulmonary embolism has been increasing, but its case-fatality rate is decreasing, sug-gesting a lesser severity of illness. The clinical importance of patients with pulmonary embolism isolated to the subseg-mental vessels is unknown.Objective: To determine the rate of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism managed without anticoagulation.Design: Multicenter prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials. gov: NCT01455818)Setting: Eighteen sites between February 2011 and February 2021.Patients: Patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism.Intervention: At diagnosis, patients underwent bilateral lower-extremity venous ultrasonography, which was repeated 1 week later if results were negative. Patients without deep venous thrombosis did not receive anticoagulant therapy.Measurements: The primary outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism during the 90-day follow-up period.Results: Recruitment was stopped prematurely because the predefined stopping rule was met after 292 of a projected 300 patients were enrolled. Of the 266 patients included in the pri-mary analysis, the primary outcome occurred in 8 patients, for a cumulative incidence of 3.1% (95% CI, 1.6% to 6.1%) over the 90-day follow-up. The incidence of recurrent venous throm-boembolism was 2.1% (CI, 0.8% to 5.5%) and 5.7% (CI, 2.2% to 14.4%) over the 90-day follow-up in patients with single and multiple isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism, respec-tively. No patients had a fatal recurrent pulmonary embolism.Limitation: The study was restricted to patients with low-risk subsegmental pulmonary embolism.Conclusion: Overall, patients with subsegmental pulmonary em-bolism who did not have proximal deep venous thrombosis had a higher-than-expected rate of recurrent venous thromboembolism. Show less
Dronkers, C.E.A.; Hulle, T. van der; Gal, G. le; Kyrle, P.A.; Huisman, M.V.; Cannegieter, S.C.; Klok, F.A. 2021
Clinical research in venous thromboembolism (VTE) is hindered by variability in the collection and reporting of data and outcomes. A consistent data language facilitates efficiencies, leads to... Show moreClinical research in venous thromboembolism (VTE) is hindered by variability in the collection and reporting of data and outcomes. A consistent data language facilitates efficiencies, leads to higher quality data, and permits between-study comparisons and evidence synthesis. The International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) launched an international task force of more than 50 researchers to develop common data elements for clinical research in venous thromboembolism.The project was organized in seven working groups, each focusing on a topic area: General Core Data Elements; Anticoagulation and Other Therapies; Chronic VTE and Functional Outcomes; Diagnosis of VTE; Malignancy; Perioperative; and Predictors of VTE. The groups met via teleconference to collaboratively identify key data elements and develop definitions and data standards that were structured in a project-specific taxonomy. A Steering Committee met by teleconference and in-person to determine the overall scope of the project and resolve questions arising from the working groups. ISTH held an open public comment period to enable broader stakeholder involvement and feedback. The common data elements were then refined by the working groups to create a set of 512 unique data elements that are publicly available at .The ISTH VTE Common Data Elements are intended to be a living project with ongoing curation, future expansion, and adaptation to meet the needs of the thrombosis and hemostasis research community. Show less
Exter, P.L. den; Kroft, L.J.M.; Gonsalves, C.; Gal, G. le; Schaefer-Prokop, C.M.; Carrier, M.; ... ; Klok, F.A. 2020
Background: Improved imaging techniques have increased the incidence of subsegmental pulmonary embolism (ssPE). Indirect evidence is suggesting that ssPE may represent a more benign presentation of... Show moreBackground: Improved imaging techniques have increased the incidence of subsegmental pulmonary embolism (ssPE). Indirect evidence is suggesting that ssPE may represent a more benign presentation of venous thromboembolism not necessarily requiring anticoagulant treatment. However, correctly diagnosing ssPE is challenging with reported low interobserver agreement, partly due to the lack of widely accepted diagnostic criteria.Objectives: We sought to derive uniform diagnostic criteria for ssPE, guided by expert consensus.Methods: Based on an extensive literature review and expert opinion of a Delphi steering committee, two surveys including statements regarding diagnostic criteria and management options for ssPE were established. These surveys were conducted electronically among two panels, respectively: expert thoracic radiologists and clinical venous thromboembolism specialists. The Delphi method was used to achieve consensus after multiple survey rounds. Consensus was defined as a level of agreement >70%.Results: Twenty-nine of 40 invited radiologists (73%) and 40 of 51 clinicians (78%) participated. Following two survey rounds by the expert radiologists, consensus was achieved on 15 of 16 statements, including on the established diagnostic criteria for ssPE (96% agreement): a contrast defect in a subsegmental artery, that is, the first arterial branch division of any segmental artery independent of artery diameter, visible in at least two subsequent axial slices, using a computed tomography scanner with a desired maximum collimator width of <= 1 mm. These criteria were approved by 83% of the clinical venous thromboembolism (VTE) specialists. The clinical expert panel favored anticoagulant treatment in case of prior VTE, antiphospholipid syndrome, pregnancy, cancer, and proximal deep vein thrombosis.Conclusion: The results of this analysis provide standard radiological criteria for ssPE that may be applicable in both clinical trials and practice. Show less
BackgroundThromboprophylaxis for patients with non-surgical isolated lower-limb trauma requiring immobilization is a matter of debate. Our aim was to develop and validate a clinical risk... Show moreBackgroundThromboprophylaxis for patients with non-surgical isolated lower-limb trauma requiring immobilization is a matter of debate. Our aim was to develop and validate a clinical risk-stratification model based on Trauma, Immobilization and Patients' characteristics (the TIP score).MethodsThe TIP score criteria and the cut-off were selected by a consensus of international experts (n = 27) using the Delphi method. Retrospective validation was performed in a population-based case-control study (MEGA study). The potential score's impact in anticoagulant treatment was assessed in a prospective single-center observational cohort study.FindingsAfter four successive rounds, 30 items constituting the TIP score were selected: thirteen items for trauma, three for immobilization and 14 for patient characteristics were selected, each rated on a scale of 1 to 3. In the validation database, the TIP score had an AUC of 0. 77 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.85). Using the cut-off proposed by the experts (>= 5) and assuming a prevalence of 1. 8%, the TIP scores had a sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive values of 89. 9%, 30. 7% and 99. 4% respectively. In the prospective cohort, 84. 2% (165/196) of all the patients concerned who presented at the emergency department had a low VTE risk not requiring thromboprophylaxis according to their TIP scores. The 3-month rate of symptomatic VTE was 1/196 [95% CI 0.1-2.8] this patient was in the sub-group TIP score >= 5.ConclusionFor patients with non-surgical lower-limb trauma and orthopedic immobilization, the TIP score allows an individual VTE risk-assessment and shows promising results in guiding thromboprophylaxis. Show less
