BackgroundMortality prediction is critical on long-term kidney replacement therapy (KRT), both for individual treatment decisions and resource planning. Many mortality prediction models already... Show moreBackgroundMortality prediction is critical on long-term kidney replacement therapy (KRT), both for individual treatment decisions and resource planning. Many mortality prediction models already exist, but as a major shortcoming most of them have only been validated internally. This leaves reliability and usefulness of these models in other KRT populations, especially foreign, unknown. Previously two models were constructed for one- and two-year mortality prediction of Finnish patients starting long-term dialysis. These models are here internationally validated in KRT populations of the Dutch NECOSAD Study and the UK Renal Registry (UKRR). MethodsWe validated the models externally on 2051 NECOSAD patients and on two UKRR patient cohorts (5328 and 45493 patients). We performed multiple imputation for missing data, used c-statistic (AUC) to assess discrimination, and evaluated calibration by plotting average estimated probability of death against observed risk of death. ResultsBoth prediction models performed well in the NECOSAD population (AUC 0.79 for the one-year model and 0.78 for the two-year model). In the UKRR populations, performance was slightly weaker (AUCs: 0.73 and 0.74). These are to be compared to the earlier external validation in a Finnish cohort (AUCs: 0.77 and 0.74). In all tested populations, our models performed better for PD than HD patients. Level of death risk (i.e., calibration) was well estimated by the one-year model in all cohorts but was somewhat overestimated by the two-year model. ConclusionsOur prediction models showed good performance not only in the Finnish but in foreign KRT populations as well. Compared to the other existing models, the current models have equal or better performance and fewer variables, thus increasing models' usability. The models are easily accessible on the web. These results encourage implementing the models into clinical decision-making widely among European KRT populations. Show less
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Patients with the hereditary disease Alport syndrome commonly require renal replacement therapy (RRT) in the second or third decade of life. This study compared age at... Show moreBACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Patients with the hereditary disease Alport syndrome commonly require renal replacement therapy (RRT) in the second or third decade of life. This study compared age at onset of RRT, renal allograft, and patient survival in men with Alport syndrome receiving various forms of RRT (peritoneal dialysis, hemodialysis, or transplantation) with those of men with other renal diseases. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS Patients with Alport syndrome receiving RRT identified from 14 registries in Europe were matched to patients with other renal diseases. A linear spline model was used to detect changes in the age at start of RRT over time. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to examine patient and graft survival. RESULTS Age at start of RRT among patients with Alport syndrome remained stable during the 1990s but increased by 6 years between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. Survival of patients with Alport syndrome requiring dialysis or transplantation did not change between 1990 and 2009. However, patients with Alport syndrome had better renal graft and patient survival than matched controls. Numbers of living-donor transplantations were lower in patients with Alport syndrome than in matched controls. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that kidney failure in patients with Alport syndrome is now being delayed compared with previous decades. These patients appear to have superior patient survival while undergoing dialysis and superior patient and graft survival after deceased-donor kidney transplantation compared with patients receiving RRT because of other causes of kidney failure. Show less
Carrero, J.J.; Jager, D.J. de; Verduijn, M.; Ravani, P.; Meester, J. de; Heaf, J.G.; ... ; Jager, K.J. 2011
The most frequently used model to describe the exponential increase in mortality rate over age is the Gompertz equation. Logarithmically transformed, the equation conforms to a straight line, of... Show moreThe most frequently used model to describe the exponential increase in mortality rate over age is the Gompertz equation. Logarithmically transformed, the equation conforms to a straight line, of which the slope has been interpreted as the rate of senescence. Earlier, we proposed the derivative function of the Gompertz equation as a superior descriptor of senescence rate. Here, we tested both measures of the rate of senescence in a population of patients with end-stage renal disease. It is clinical dogma that patients on dialysis experience accelerated senescence, whereas those with a functional kidney transplant have mortality rates comparable to the general population. Therefore, we calculated the age-specific mortality rates for European patients on dialysis (n = 274 221; follow-up = 594 767 person-years), for European patients with a functioning kidney transplant (n = 61 286; follow-up = 345 024 person-years), and for the general European population. We found higher mortality rates, but a smaller slope of logarithmic mortality curve for patients on dialysis compared with both patients with a functioning kidney transplant and the general population (P < 0.001). A classical interpretation of the Gompertz model would imply that the rate of senescence in patients on dialysis is lower than in patients with a functioning transplant and lower than in the general population. In contrast, the derivative function of the Gompertz equation yielded the highest senescence rates for patients on dialysis, whereas the rate was similar in patients with a functioning transplant and the general population. We conclude that the rate of senescence is better described by the derivative function of the Gompertz equation. Show less
Background. Information on demographics and survival of patients starting renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) due to multiple myeloma (MM) or light-chain deposit... Show moreBackground. Information on demographics and survival of patients starting renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) due to multiple myeloma (MM) or light-chain deposit disease (LCDD) is scarce. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence, characteristics, causes of death and survival rates of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD in the ERA-EDTA Registry. Methods. Thirteen national registries providing data on patients who started RRT from 1986-2005 to the ERA-EDTA Registry participated. Incidence per million population (pmp) of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD and other causes (non-MM) was observed overtime. Patient survival on RRT was examined, unadjusted and adjusted for age and gender. Results. Of the 159 637 patients on RRT, 2453 (1.54%) had MM or LCDD. The incidence of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD, adjusted for age and gender, increased from 0.70 pmp in 1986-1990 to 2.52 pmp in 2001-2005. MM and LCDD patients compared to non-MM patients were older and a higher percentage was on haemodialysis at day 91 after the start of RRT. The most common causes of death in MM and LCDD patients were malignancy (36.1%), cardiovascular causes (17.2%) and infection (14.7%). MM and LCDD patients had a 2.77 (95% CI, 2.65-2.90) higher risk of death compared to non-MM patients. The unadjusted median survival on RRT was 0.91 years in MM and LCDD patients and 4.46 years in nonMM patients. During follow-up, 35 patients were transplanted and their mean survival was 9.6 years. Conclusion. The incidence of RRT for ESR.D due to MM or LCDD has increased over the past 20 years in Europe. The median patient survival on RRT for MM and LCDD patients Show less
