Objectives: Around 30% of patients with RA have an inadequate response to MTX. We aimed to use routine clinical and biological data to build machine learning models predicting EULAR inadequate... Show moreObjectives: Around 30% of patients with RA have an inadequate response to MTX. We aimed to use routine clinical and biological data to build machine learning models predicting EULAR inadequate response to MTX and to identify simple predictive biomarkers. Methods: Models were trained on RA patients fulfilling the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria from the ESPOIR and Leiden EAC cohorts to predict the EULAR response at 9 months (+/- 6 months). Several models were compared on the training set using the AUROC. The best model was evaluated on an external validation cohort (tREACH). The model's predictions were explained using Shapley values to extract a biomarker of inadequate response. Results: We included 493 therapeutic sequences from ESPOIR, 239 from EAC and 138 from tREACH. The model selected DAS28, Lymphocytes, Creatininemia, Leucocytes, AST, ALT, swollen joint count and corticosteroid co-treatment as predictors. The model reached an AUROC of 0.72 [95% CI (0.63, 0.80)] on the external validation set, where 70% of patients were responders to MTX. Patients predicted as inadequate responders had only 38% [95% CI (20%, 58%)] chance to respond and using the algorithm to decide to initiate MTX would decrease inadequate-response rate from 30% to 23% [95% CI: (17%, 29%)]. A biomarker was identified in patients with moderate or high activity (DAS28 > 3.2): patients with a lymphocyte count superior to 2000 cells/mm(3) are significantly less likely to respond. Conclusion: Our study highlights the usefulness of machine learning in unveiling subgroups of inadequate responders to MTX to guide new therapeutic strategies. Further work is needed to validate this approach. Show less
A clinical guideline is a document with the aim of guiding decisions based on evidence regarding diagnosis, management and treatment in specific areas of healthcare. Specific to rheumatic and... Show moreA clinical guideline is a document with the aim of guiding decisions based on evidence regarding diagnosis, management and treatment in specific areas of healthcare. Specific to rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs), adherence to clinical guidelines recommendations impacts the outcomes of people with these diseases. However, currently, the implementation of recommendations is less than optimal in rheumatology.The WHO has described the implementation of evidence-based recommendations as one of the greatest challenges facing the global health community and has identified the importance of scaling up these recommendations. But closing the evidence-to-practice gap is often complex, time-consuming and difficult. In this context, the implementation science offers a framework to overcome this scenario. This article describes the principles of implementation science to facilitate and optimise the implementation of clinical recommendations in RMDs. Embedding implementation science methods and techniques into recommendation development and daily practice can help maximise the likelihood that implementation is successful in improving the quality of healthcare and healthcare services. Show less
Courvoisier, D.S.; Lauper, K.; Kedra, J.; Wit, M. de; Fautrel, B.; Frisell, T.; ... ; Finckh, A. 2022
Background: Comparing treatment effectiveness over time in observational settings is hampered by several major threats, among them confounding and attrition bias. Objectives: To develop European... Show moreBackground: Comparing treatment effectiveness over time in observational settings is hampered by several major threats, among them confounding and attrition bias. Objectives: To develop European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) points to consider (PtC) when analysing and reporting comparative effectiveness research using observational data in rheumatology. Methods: The PtC were developed using a three-step process according to the EULAR Standard Operating Procedures. Based on a systematic review of methods currently used in comparative effectiveness studies, the PtC were formulated through two in-person meetings of a multidisciplinary task force and a two-round online Delphi, using expert opinion and a simulation study. Finally, feedback from a larger audience was used to refine the PtC. Mean levels of agreement among the task force were calculated. Results: Three overarching principles and 10 PtC were formulated, addressing, in particular, potential biases relating to attrition or confounding by indication. Building on Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines, these PtC insist on the definition of the baseline for analysis and treatment effectiveness. They also focus on the reasons for stopping treatment as an important consideration when assessing effectiveness. Finally, the PtC recommend providing key information on missingness patterns. Conclusion: To improve the reliability of an increasing number of real-world comparative effectiveness studies in rheumatology, special attention is required to reduce potential biases. Adherence to clear recommendations for the analysis and reporting of observational comparative effectiveness studies will improve the trustworthiness of their results. Show less
Objectives To evaluate the analysis and reporting of comparative effectiveness research with observational data in rheumatology, informing European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology points... Show moreObjectives To evaluate the analysis and reporting of comparative effectiveness research with observational data in rheumatology, informing European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology points to consider. Methods We performed a systematic literature review searching Ovid MEDLINE for original articles comparing drug effectiveness in longitudinal observational studies, published in key rheumatology journals between 2008 and 2019. The extracted information focused on reporting and types of analyses. We evaluated if year of publication impacted results. Results From 9969 abstracts reviewed, 211 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Ten per cent of studies did not adjust for confounding factors. Some studies did not explain how they chose covariates for adjustment (9%), used bivariate screening (21%) and/or stepwise selection procedures (18%). Only 33% studies reported the number of patients lost to follow-up and 25% acknowledged attrition (drop-out or treatment cessation). To account for attrition, studies used non-responder imputation, followed by last observation carried forward (LOCF) and complete case (CC) analyses. Most studies did not report the number of missing data on covariates (83%), and when addressed, 49% used CC and 11% LOCF. Date of publication did not influence the results. Conclusion Most studies did not acknowledge missing data and attrition, and a tenth did not adjust for any confounding factors. When attempting to account for them, several studies used methods which potentially increase bias (LOCF, CC analysis, bivariate screening horizontal ellipsis ). This study shows that there is no improvement over the last decade, highlighting the need for recommendations for the assessment and reporting of comparative drug effectiveness in observational data in rheumatology. Show less
Nikiphorou, E.; Boonen, A.; Fautrel, B.; Richette, P.; Landewe, R.; Heijde, D. van der; Ramiro, S. 2021
Objectives: To investigate the impact of clinical and socioeconomic factors on work disability (WD) in early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods: Patients from the DESIR cohort with a clinical... Show moreObjectives: To investigate the impact of clinical and socioeconomic factors on work disability (WD) in early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods: Patients from the DESIR cohort with a clinical diagnosis of axSpA were studied over 5 years. Time to WD and potential baseline and time-varying predictors were explored, with a focus on socioeconomic (including ethnicity, education, job-type, marital/parental status) and clinical (including disease activity, function, mobility) factors. Univariable analyses, collinearity and interaction tests guided subsequent multivariable time-varying Cox survival analyses. Results: From 704 patients eligible for this study, the estimated incidence of WD among those identified as at risk (n = 663, 94%), and across the five years of DESIR, was 0.05 (95% CI 0.03, 0.06) per 1000 person-days. Significant differences in baseline socioeconomic factors, including lower educational status and clinical measures, including worse disease activity, were seen in patients developing WD over follow-up, compared with those who never did. In the main multivariable model, educational status was no longer predictive of WD, whereas the AS disease activity score (ASDAS) and the BASFI were significantly and independently associated with a higher hazard of WD [HR (95%CI) 1.79 (1.27, 2.54) and 1.42 (1.22, 1.65), respectively]. Conclusion: WD was an infrequent event in this early axSpA cohort. Nevertheless, clinical factors were among the strongest predictors of WD, over socioeconomic factors, with worse disease activity and function independently associated with a higher hazard of WD. Disease severity remains a strong predictor of adverse work outcome even in early disease, despite substantial advances in therapeutic strategies in axSpA. Show less
Background Clinical studies with work participation (WP) as an outcome domain pose particular methodological challenges that hamper interpretation, comparison between studies and meta-analyses... Show moreBackground Clinical studies with work participation (WP) as an outcome domain pose particular methodological challenges that hamper interpretation, comparison between studies and meta-analyses.Objectives To develop Points to Consider (PtC) for design, analysis and reporting of studies of patients with inflammatory arthritis that include WP as a primary or secondary outcome domain.Methods The EULAR Standardised Operating Procedures were followed. A multidisciplinary taskforce with 22 experts including patients with rheumatic diseases, from 10 EULAR countries and Canada, identified methodologic areas of concern. Two systematic literature reviews (SLR) appraised the methodology across these areas. In parallel, two surveys among professional societies and experts outside the taskforce sought for additional methodological areas or existing conducting/reporting recommendations. The taskforce formulated the PtC after presentation of the SLRs and survey results, and discussion. Consensus was obtained through informal voting, with levels of agreement obtained anonymously.Results Two overarching principles and nine PtC were formulated. The taskforce recommends to align the work-related study objective to the design, duration, and outcome domains/measurement instruments of the study (PtC: 1-3); to identify contextual factors upfront and account for them in analyses (PtC: 4); to account for interdependence of different work outcome domains and for changes in work status over time (PtC: 5-7); to present results as means as well as proportions of patients reaching predefined meaningful categories (PtC: 8) and to explicitly report volumes of productivity loss when costs are an outcome (PtC:9).Conclusion Adherence to these EULAR PtC will improve the methodological quality of studies evaluating WP. Show less
Objective: Despite its prevalence, there are few worldwide hand osteoarthritis (HOA) cohorts. The main objective of DIGItal COhort Design (DIGICOD) cohort is to investigate prognostic clinical,... Show moreObjective: Despite its prevalence, there are few worldwide hand osteoarthritis (HOA) cohorts. The main objective of DIGItal COhort Design (DIGICOD) cohort is to investigate prognostic clinical, biological, genetic and imaging factors of clinical worsening after 6 years follow-up.Methods: DIGICOD is a hospital-based prospective cohort including patients > 35 years-old with symptomatic HOA fulfilling: (i) ACR criteria for HOA with > 2 symptomatic joints among proximal/distal interphalangeal joints or 1st interphalangeal joint with Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) > 2; or (ii) symptomatic thumb base OA with KL > 2. Main exclusion criteria were inflammatory arthritis and crystal arthropathies. Annual clinical evaluations were scheduled with imaging (X-rays of the hands and of other OA symptomatic joints) and biological sampling every 3 years. Hand radiographs are scored using KL and anatomical Verbruggen-Veys scores. Follow-up visits are ongoing. Cohort methodology and baseline characteristics are presented.Results: Between April 2013 and June 2017, from the 436 HOA included patients, 426 have been analysed of whom 357 (84%) are women. Mean age +/- standard deviation was 66.7 +/- 7.3 years and mean disease duration was 12.6 +/- 9.6 years. Metabolic syndrome affected 151 (36.5%) patients. Mean Visual Analog Scale (VAS) hand pain (0-100 mm) was 44.4 +/- 26.7 mm at activity. Mean FIHOA (0-100) was 19.9 + 18.6. Elevated serum CRP level (>= 5 mg/L) involved 10% patients. Mean KL score (0-128) was 46.7 +/- 18 and the mean number ofjoint with KL >= 2 was 15.1 +/- 6.3. Erosive HOA (defined as >= 1 Erosive or Remodeling phase joint according to Verbruggen-Veys score) involved 195/426 (45.8%) patients and the median number (interquartile range) of erosive joints in erosive patients was 3.0 (1.0-5.0).Conclusion: DIGICOD is a unique prospective HOA cohort with a long-term 6 years standardized assessment and has included severe radiologically HOA patients with a high prevalence of erosive disease. 2021 Societe francaise de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. Show less
Objectives To investigate the occurrence of sick leave (SL) and the impact of clinical and socioeconomic factors on SL in early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods Patients with a clinical... Show moreObjectives To investigate the occurrence of sick leave (SL) and the impact of clinical and socioeconomic factors on SL in early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods Patients with a clinical diagnosis of axSpA from the DEvenir des Spondyloarthrites Indifferenciees Recentes (DESIR) cohort with work-related data and up to 5-year follow-up were studied. Incidence, time to first SL and potential role of baseline and time-varying clinical and socioeconomic factors (age, gender, ethnicity, education, job type, marital and parental status) were analysed. Univariable analyses, followed by collinearity and interaction tests, guided subsequent multivariable time-varying Cox survival model building. Results In total, 704 axSpA patients were included (mean (SD) age 33.8 (8.6); 46% men). At baseline, 80% of patients were employed; of these, 5.7% reported being on SL. The incidence of SL among those at risk during the study period (n=620, 88%) was 0.05 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.06) per 1000 days of follow-up. Mean (SD) time to first SL was 806 (595) days (range: 175-2021 days). In multivariable models, male gender (HR 0.41 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.86)) and higher education (HR 0.48 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.95)) were associated with lower hazard of SL, while higher disease activity (HR 1.49 (95% CI 1.04 to 2.13)), older age, smoking and use of tumour necrosis factor inhibitors were associated with higher hazard of SL. Conclusions In this early axSpA cohort of young, working-age individuals, male gender and higher education were independently associated with a lower hazard of SL, whereas older age and higher disease activity were associated with higher hazard of SL. The findings suggest a role of socioeconomic factors in adverse work outcomes, alongside active disease. Show less
Vanier, A.; Smolen, J.S.; Allaart, C.F.; Vollenhoven, R. van; Verschueren, P.; Vastesaeger, N.; ... ; Fautrel, B. 2020
Objective. In early RA, some patients exhibit rapid radiographic progression (RRP) after one year, associated with poor functional prognosis. Matrices predicting this risk have been proposed,... Show moreObjective. In early RA, some patients exhibit rapid radiographic progression (RRP) after one year, associated with poor functional prognosis. Matrices predicting this risk have been proposed, lacking precision or inadequately calibrated. We developed a matrix to predict RRP with high precision and adequate calibration.Methods. Post-hoc analysis by pooling individual data from cohorts (ESPOIR and Leuven cohorts) and clinical trials (ASPIRE, BeSt and SWEFOT trials). Adult DMARD-naive patients with active early RA for which the first therapeutic strategy after inclusion was to prescribe methotrexate or leflunomide were included. A logistic regression model to predict RRP was built. The best model was selected by 10-fold stratified cross-validation by maximizing the Area Under the Curve. Calibration and discriminatory power of the model were checked. The probabilities of RRP for each combination of levels of baseline characteristics were estimated.Results. 1306 patients were pooled. 20.6% exhibited RRP. Four predictors were retained: rheumatoid factor positivity, presence of at least one RA erosion on X-rays, CRP>30mg/l, number of swollen joints. The matrix estimates RRP probability for 36 combinations of level of baseline characteristics with a greatly enhanced precision compared with previously published matrices (95% CI: from +/- 0.02 minimum to +/- 0.08 maximum) and model calibration is excellent (P = 0.79).Conclusion. A matrix proposing RRP probability with high precision and excellent calibration in early RA was built. Although the matrix has moderate sensitivity and specificity, it is easily usable and may help physicians and patients to make treatment decisions in daily clinical practice. Show less
