Objectives: In the SPRINT trial, 18% of patients with a tibial shaft fracture (TSF) treated with intramedullary nailing (IMN) had one or more unplanned subsequent surgical procedures. It is... Show moreObjectives: In the SPRINT trial, 18% of patients with a tibial shaft fracture (TSF) treated with intramedullary nailing (IMN) had one or more unplanned subsequent surgical procedures. It is clinically relevant for surgeon and patient to anticipate unplanned secondary procedures, other than operations that can be readily expected such as reconstructive procedures for soft tissue defects. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) prediction model using the SPRINT data that can give individual patients and their care team an estimate of their particular probability of an unplanned second surgery. Methods: Patients from the SPRINT trial with unilateral TSFs were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and test set (20%). Five ML algorithms were trained in recognizing patterns associated with subsequent surgery in the training set based on a subset of variables identified by random forest algorithms. Performance of each ML algorithm was evaluated and compared based on (1) area under the ROC curve, (2) calibration slope and intercept, and (3) the Brier score. Results: Total data set comprised 1198 patients, of whom 214 patients (18%) underwent subsequent surgery. Seven variables were used to train ML algorithms: (1) Gustilo-Anderson classification, (2) Tscherne classification, (3) fracture location, (4) fracture gap, (5) polytrauma, (6) injury mechanism, and (7) OTA/AO classification. The best-performing ML algorithm had an area under the ROC curve, calibration slope, calibration intercept, and the Brier score of 0.766, 0.954, -0.002, and 0.120 in the training set and 0.773, 0.922, 0, and 0.119 in the test set, respectively. Conclusions: An ML algorithm was developed to predict the probability of subsequent surgery after IMN for TSFs. This ML algorithm may assist surgeons to inform patients about the probability of subsequent surgery and might help to identify patients who need a different perioperative plan or a more intensive approach. Show less
BACKGROUND: Disrupting the costimulatory CD40-CD40L dyad reduces atherosclerosis, but can result in immune suppression. The authors recently identified small molecule inhibitors that block the... Show moreBACKGROUND: Disrupting the costimulatory CD40-CD40L dyad reduces atherosclerosis, but can result in immune suppression. The authors recently identified small molecule inhibitors that block the interaction between CD40 and tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor (TRAF) 6 (TRAF-STOPs), while leaving CD40-TRAF2/3/5 interactions intact, thereby preserving CD40-mediated immunity.OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the potential of TRAF-STOP treatment in atherosclerosis.METHODS: The effects of TRAF-STOPs on atherosclerosis were investigated in apolipoprotein E deficient (Apoe-/-) mice. Recombinant high-density lipoprotein (rHDL) nanoparticles were used to target TRAF-STOPs to macrophages.RESULTS: TRAF-STOP treatment of young Apoe-/- mice reduced atherosclerosis by reducing CD40 and integrin expression in classical monocytes, thereby hampering monocyte recruitment. When Apoe-/- mice with established atherosclerosis were treated with TRAF-STOPs, plaque progression was halted, and plaques contained an increase in collagen, developed small necrotic cores, and contained only a few immune cells. TRAF-STOP treatment did not impair "classical" immune pathways of CD40, including T-cell proliferation and costimulation, Ig isotype switching, or germinal center formation, but reduced CD40 and β2-integrin expression in inflammatory monocytes. In vitro testing and transcriptional profiling showed that TRAF-STOPs are effective in reducing macrophage migration and activation, which could be attributed to reduced phosphorylation of signaling intermediates of the canonical NF-κB pathway. To target TRAF-STOPs specifically to macrophages, TRAF-STOP 6877002 was incorporated into rHDL nanoparticles. Six weeks of rHDL-6877002 treatment attenuated the initiation of atherosclerosis in Apoe-/- mice.CONCLUSIONS: TRAF-STOPs can overcome the current limitations of long-term CD40 inhibition in atherosclerosis and have the potential to become a future therapeutic for atherosclerosis.Published by Elsevier Inc.KEYWORDS: atherosclerosis; drug development; immunology; inflammation; nanotechnology Show less
Dalcetrapib increases high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels through effects on cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP). As part of the dalcetrapib dal-HEART clinical trial programme... Show moreDalcetrapib increases high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels through effects on cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP). As part of the dalcetrapib dal-HEART clinical trial programme, the efficacy and safety of dalcetrapib is assessed in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in the dal-VESSEL study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00655538), the design and methods of which are presented here. Men and women with CHD or CHD risk equivalent, with HDL-C levels < 50 mg/dL were recruited for a 36-week, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial. After a pre-randomisation phase of up to 8 weeks, patients received dalcetrapib 600 mg/day or placebo in addition to their existing treatments. Brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) measured by B-mode ultrasound represents endothelial function and is a validated marker for early atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease risk. The primary efficacy outcome is change from baseline in brachial FMD after 12 weeks. The primary safety endpoint is 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) assessed at week 4. Secondary endpoints include brachial FMD at 36 weeks, ABPM at 12 and 36 weeks, lipid profile, CETP mass and activity, and markers of inflammation, oxidation, and cardiovascular risk. Clinical endpoints are assessed as a composite endpoint for the dal-HEART Program. In 19 European clinical centres, 476 subjects met inclusion criteria and have entered the study. In conclusion, the dal-VESSEL study is the largest multicentre trial with brachial FMD ever performed. The study assesses efficacy and safety of dalcetrapib on endothelial function, blood pressure, lipids, and clinical outcomes in CHD patients with below average HDL-C and will therefore provide vital information regarding its potential role in the preventative treatment of CHD risk. Show less
