The QT interval is an electrocardiographic measure representing the sum of ventricular depolarization and repolarization, estimated by QRS duration and JT interval, respectively. QT interval... Show moreThe QT interval is an electrocardiographic measure representing the sum of ventricular depolarization and repolarization, estimated by QRS duration and JT interval, respectively. QT interval abnormalities are associated with potentially fatal ventricular arrhythmia. Using genome-wide multi-ancestry analyses (>250,000 individuals) we identify 177, 156 and 121 independent loci for QT, JT and QRS, respectively, including a male-specific X-chromosome locus. Using gene-based rare-variant methods, we identify associations with Mendelian disease genes. Enrichments are observed in established pathways for QT and JT, and previously unreported genes indicated in insulin-receptor signalling and cardiac energy metabolism. In contrast for QRS, connective tissue components and processes for cell growth and extracellular matrix interactions are significantly enriched. We demonstrate polygenic risk score associations with atrial fibrillation, conduction disease and sudden cardiac death. Prioritization of druggable genes highlight potential therapeutic targets for arrhythmia. Together, these results substantially advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of ventricular depolarization and repolarization. Show less
Background: Elevated cardiac troponin levels in blood are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases and mortality. Cardiac troponin levels are heritable, but their genetic... Show moreBackground: Elevated cardiac troponin levels in blood are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases and mortality. Cardiac troponin levels are heritable, but their genetic architecture remains elusive. Methods: We conducted a transethnic genome-wide association analysis on high-sensitivity cTnT (cardiac troponin T; hs-cTnT) and high-sensitivity cTnI (cardiac troponin I; hs-cTnI) levels in 24 617 and 14 336 participants free of coronary heart disease and heart failure from 6 population-based cohorts, followed by a series of bioinformatic analyses to decipher the genetic architecture of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI. Results: We identified 4 genome-wide significant loci for hs-cTnT including a novel locus rs3737882 in PPFIA4 and 3 previously reported loci at NCOA2, TRAM1, and BCL2. One known locus at VCL was replicated for hs-cTnI. One copy of C allele for rs3737882 was associated with a 6% increase in hs-cTnT levels (minor allele frequency, 0.18; P=2.80x10(-9)). We observed pleiotropic loci located at BAG3 and ANO5. The proportions of variances explained by single-nucleotide polymorphisms were 10.15% and 7.74% for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI, respectively. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms were colocalized with BCL2 expression in heart tissues and hs-cTnT and with ANO5 expression in artery, heart tissues, and whole blood and both troponins. Mendelian randomization analyses showed that genetically increased hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels were associated with higher odds of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.25-1.54] for hs-cTnT and 1.21 [95% CI, 1.06-1.37] for hs-cTnI). Conclusions: We identified a novel genetic locus associated with hs-cTnT in a multiethnic population and found that genetically regulated troponin levels were associated with atrial fibrillation. Show less
Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure.Methods and results The consortium... Show moreAims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure.Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome-wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow-up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty-nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34-90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of >1.10 for common variants (allele frequency > 0.05) and >1.20 for low-frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01-0.05) at P < 5 x 10(-8) under an additive genetic model.Conclusions HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction. Show less
Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals... Show moreAims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. Show less
Wang, H.M.; Noordam, R.; Cade, B.E.; Schwander, K.; Winkler, T.W.; Lee, J.; ... ; Heemst, D. van 2021
Long and short sleep duration are associated with elevated blood pressure (BP), possibly through effects on molecular pathways that influence neuroendocrine and vascular systems. To gain new... Show moreLong and short sleep duration are associated with elevated blood pressure (BP), possibly through effects on molecular pathways that influence neuroendocrine and vascular systems. To gain new insights into the genetic basis of sleep-related BP variation, we performed genome-wide gene by short or long sleep duration interaction analyses on four BP traits (systolic BP, diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure) across five ancestry groups in two stages using 2 degree of freedom (df) joint test followed by 1df test of interaction effects. Primary multi-ancestry analysis in 62,969 individuals in stage 1 identified three novel gene by sleep interactions that were replicated in an additional 59,296 individuals in stage 2 (stage 1 + 2 P-joint < 5 x 10(-8)), including rs7955964 (FIGNL2/ANKRD33) that increases BP among long sleepers, and rs73493041 (SNORA26/C9orf170) and rs10406644 (KCTD15/LSM14A) that increase BP among short sleepers (P-int < 5 x 10(-8)). Secondary ancestry-specific analysis identified another novel gene by long sleep interaction at rs111887471 (TRPC3/KIAA1109) in individuals of African ancestry (P-int = 2 x 10(-6)). Combined stage 1 and 2 analyses additionally identified significant gene by long sleep interactions at 10 loci including MKLN1 and RGL3/ELAVL3 previously associated with BP, and significant gene by short sleep interactions at 10 loci including C2orf43 previously associated with BP (P-int < 10(-3)). 2df test also identified novel loci for BP after modeling sleep that has known functions in sleep-wake regulation, nervous and cardiometabolic systems. This study indicates that sleep and primary mechanisms regulating BP may interact to elevate BP level, suggesting novel insights into sleep-related BP regulation. Show less
Sargurupremraj, M.; Suzuki, H.; Jian, X.Q.; Sarnowski, C.; Evans, T.E.; Bis, J.C.; ... ; Int Headache Genomics Consortium I 2020
White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are the most common brain-imaging feature of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), hypertension being the main known risk factor. Here, we identify 27 genome-wide... Show moreWhite matter hyperintensities (WMH) are the most common brain-imaging feature of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), hypertension being the main known risk factor. Here, we identify 27 genome-wide loci for WMH-volume in a cohort of 50,970 older individuals, accounting for modification/confounding by hypertension. Aggregated WMH risk variants were associated with altered white matter integrity (p=2.5x10-7) in brain images from 1,738 young healthy adults, providing insight into the lifetime impact of SVD genetic risk. Mendelian randomization suggested causal association of increasing WMH-volume with stroke, Alzheimer-type dementia, and of increasing blood pressure (BP) with larger WMH-volume, notably also in persons without clinical hypertension. Transcriptome-wide colocalization analyses showed association of WMH-volume with expression of 39 genes, of which four encode known drug targets. Finally, we provide insight into BP-independent biological pathways underlying SVD and suggest potential for genetic stratification of high-risk individuals and for genetically-informed prioritization of drug targets for prevention trials. White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are a common brain-imaging feature of cerebral small vessel disease. Here, the authors carry out a GWAS and followup analyses for WMH-volume, implicating several variants with potential for risk stratification and drug targeting. Show less
Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we... Show moreGenetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency <= 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets. Show less
Background:The P-wave duration (PWD) is an electrocardiographic measurement that represents cardiac conduction in the atria. Shortened or prolonged PWD is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF).... Show moreBackground:The P-wave duration (PWD) is an electrocardiographic measurement that represents cardiac conduction in the atria. Shortened or prolonged PWD is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). We used exome-chip data to examine the associations between common and rare variants with PWD.Methods:Fifteen studies comprising 64 440 individuals (56 943 European, 5681 African, 1186 Hispanic, 630 Asian) and approximate to 230 000 variants were used to examine associations with maximum PWD across the 12-lead ECG. Meta-analyses summarized association results for common variants; gene-based burden and sequence kernel association tests examined low-frequency variant-PWD associations. Additionally, we examined the associations between PWD loci and AF using previous AF genome-wide association studies.Results:We identified 21 common and low-frequency genetic loci (14 novel) associated with maximum PWD, including several AF loci (TTN, CAND2, SCN10A, PITX2, CAV1, SYNPO2L, SOX5, TBX5, MYH6, RPL3L). The top variants at known sarcomere genes (TTN, MYH6) were associated with longer PWD and increased AF risk. However, top variants at other loci (eg, PITX2 and SCN10A) were associated with longer PWD but lower AF risk.Conclusions:Our results highlight multiple novel genetic loci associated with PWD, and underscore the shared mechanisms of atrial conduction and AF. Prolonged PWD may be an endophenotype for several different genetic mechanisms of AF. Show less
The electrocardiographic PR interval reflects atrioventricular conduction, and is associated with conduction abnormalities, pacemaker implantation, atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiovascular... Show moreThe electrocardiographic PR interval reflects atrioventricular conduction, and is associated with conduction abnormalities, pacemaker implantation, atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiovascular mortality. Here we report a multi-ancestry (N=293,051) genome-wide association meta-analysis for the PR interval, discovering 202 loci of which 141 have not previously been reported. Variants at identified loci increase the percentage of heritability explained, from 33.5% to 62.6%. We observe enrichment for cardiac muscle developmental/contractile and cytoskeletal genes, highlighting key regulation processes for atrioventricular conduction. Additionally, 8 loci not previously reported harbor genes underlying inherited arrhythmic syndromes and/or cardiomyopathies suggesting a role for these genes in cardiovascular pathology in the general population. We show that polygenic predisposition to PR interval duration is an endophenotype for cardiovascular disease, including distal conduction disease, AF, and atrioventricular pre-excitation. These findings advance our understanding of the polygenic basis of cardiac conduction, and the genetic relationship between PR interval duration and cardiovascular disease. On the electrocardiogram, the PR interval reflects conduction from the atria to ventricles and also serves as risk indicator of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Here, the authors perform genome-wide meta-analyses for PR interval in multiple ancestries and identify 141 previously unreported genetic loci. Show less
Fuentes, L. de las; Sung, Y.J.; Noordam, R.; Winkler, T.; Feitosa, M.F.; Schwander, K.; ... ; Lifelines Cohort Study 2020
Educational attainment is widely used as a surrogate for socioeconomic status (SES). Low SES is a risk factor for hypertension and high blood pressure (BP). To identify novel BP loci, we performed... Show moreEducational attainment is widely used as a surrogate for socioeconomic status (SES). Low SES is a risk factor for hypertension and high blood pressure (BP). To identify novel BP loci, we performed multi-ancestry meta-analyses accounting for gene-educational attainment interactions using two variables, "Some College" (yes/no) and "Graduated College" (yes/no). Interactions were evaluated using both a 1 degree of freedom (DF) interaction term and a 2DF joint test of genetic and interaction effects. Analyses were performed for systolic BP, diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure. We pursued genome-wide interrogation in Stage 1 studies (N = 117 438) and follow-up on promising variants in Stage 2 studies (N = 293 787) in five ancestry groups. Through combined meta-analyses of Stages 1 and 2, we identified 84 known and 18 novel BP loci at genome-wide significance level (P < 5 x 10(-8)). Two novel loci were identified based on the 1DF test of interaction with educational attainment, while the remaining 16 loci were identified through the 2DF joint test of genetic and interaction effects. Ten novel loci were identified in individuals of African ancestry. Several novel loci show strong biological plausibility since they involve physiologic systems implicated in BP regulation. They include genes involved in the central nervous system-adrenal signaling axis (ZDHHC17, CADPS, PIK3C2G), vascular structure and function (GNB3, CDON), and renal function (HAS2 and HAS2-AS1, SLIT3). Collectively, these findings suggest a role of educational attainment or SES in further dissection of the genetic architecture of BP. Show less
Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association... Show moreHeart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies. Show less
In many species, the offspring of related parents suffer reduced reproductive success, a phenomenon known as inbreeding depression. In humans, the importance of this effect has remained unclear,... Show moreIn many species, the offspring of related parents suffer reduced reproductive success, a phenomenon known as inbreeding depression. In humans, the importance of this effect has remained unclear, partly because reproduction between close relatives is both rare and frequently associated with confounding social factors. Here, using genomic inbreeding coefficients (F-ROH) for >1.4 million individuals, we show that F-ROH is significantly associated (p < 0.0005) with apparently deleterious changes in 32 out of 100 traits analysed. These changes are associated with runs of homozygosity (ROH), but not with common variant homozygosity, suggesting that genetic variants associated with inbreeding depression are predominantly rare. The effect on fertility is striking: F-ROH equivalent to the offspring of first cousins is associated with a 55% decrease [95% CI 44-66%] in the odds of having children. Finally, the effects of F-ROH are confirmed within full-sibling pairs, where the variation in F-ROH is independent of all environmental confounding. Show less
Background: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9.Methods: Published... Show moreBackground: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9.Methods: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration.Results: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable.Conclusions: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate. Show less
Angelantonio, E. di; Kaptoge, S.; Pennells, L.; Bacquer, D. de; Cooney, M.T.; Kavousi, M.; ... ; Kim 2019
Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk... Show moreBackground To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Sung, Y.J.; Fuentes, L. de las; Winkler, T.W.; Chasman, D.I.; Bentley, A.R.; Kraja, A.T.; ... ; Lifelines Cohort Study 2019
Elevated blood pressure (BP), a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, is influenced by both genetic and lifestyle factors. Cigarette smoking is one such lifestyle factor. Across five... Show moreElevated blood pressure (BP), a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, is influenced by both genetic and lifestyle factors. Cigarette smoking is one such lifestyle factor. Across five ancestries, we performed a genome-wide gene-smoking interaction study of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP) in 129 913 individuals in stage 1 and follow-up analysis in 480 178 additional individuals in stage 2. We report here 136 loci significantly associated with MAP and/or PP. Of these, 61 were previously published through main-effect analysis of BP traits, 37 were recently reported by us for systolic BP and/or diastolic BP through gene-smoking interaction analysis and 38 were newly identified (P < 5 x 10(-8), false discovery rate < 0.05). We also identified nine new signals near known loci. Of the 136 loci, 8 showed significant interaction with smoking status. They include CSMD1 previously reported for insulin resistance and BP in the spontaneously hypertensive rats. Many of the 38 new loci show biologic plausibility for a role in BP regulation. SLC26A7 encodes a chloride/bicarbonate exchanger expressed in the renal outer medullary collecting duct. AVPR1A is widely expressed, including in vascular smooth muscle cells, kidney, myocardium and brain. FHAD1 is a long non-coding RNA overexpressed in heart failure. TMEM51 was associated with contractile function in cardiomyocytes. CASP9 plays a central role in cardiomyocyte apoptosis. Identified only in African ancestry were 30 novel loci. Our findings highlight the value of multi-ancestry investigations, particularly in studies of interaction with lifestyle factors, where genomic and lifestyle differences may contribute to novel findings. Show less
Noordam, R.; Young, W.J.; Salman, R.; Kanters, J.K.; Berg, M.E. van den; Heemst, D. van; ... ; Warren, H.R. 2019
BackgroundFibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and... Show moreBackgroundFibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infraction (MI) using Mendelian randomization (MR) used single variant approaches, and did not take advantage of recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or multi-variant, pleiotropy robust MR methodologies.Methods and findingsWe evaluated evidence for a causal effect of fibrinogen on both CHD and MI using MR. We used both an allele score approach and pleiotropy robust MR models. The allele score was composed of 38 fibrinogen-associated variants from recent GWAS. Initial analyses using the allele score used a meta-analysis of 11 European-ancestry prospective cohorts, free of CHD and MI at baseline, to examine incidence CHD and MI. We also applied 2 sample MR methods with data from a prevalent CHD and MI GWAS. Results are given in terms of the hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR), depending on the study design, and associated 95% confidence interval (CI).In single variant analyses no causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD or MI was observed. In multi-variant analyses using incidence CHD cases and the allele score approach, the estimated causal effect (HR) of a 1 g/L higher fibrinogen concentration was 1.62 (CI = 1.12, 2.36) when using incident cases and the allele score approach. In 2 sample MR analyses that accounted for pleiotropy, the causal estimate (OR) was reduced to 1.18 (CI = 0.98, 1.42) and 1.09 (CI = 0.89, 1.33) in the 2 most precise (smallest CI) models, out of 4 models evaluated. In the 2 sample MR analyses for MI, there was only very weak evidence of a causal effect in only 1 out of 4 models.ConclusionsA small causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD is observed using multi-variant MR approaches which account for pleiotropy, but not single variant MR approaches. Taken together, results indicate that even with large sample sizes and multi-variant approaches MR analyses still cannot exclude the null when estimating the causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD, but that any potential causal effect is likely to be much smaller than observed in epidemiological studies. Show less
IMPORTANCE Increased free thyroxine (FT4) and decreased thyrotropin are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies, but direct involvement is unclear... Show moreIMPORTANCE Increased free thyroxine (FT4) and decreased thyrotropin are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies, but direct involvement is unclear.OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential direct involvement of thyroid traits on AF.DESIGN, SETTING. AND PARTICIPANTS Study-level mendelian randomization (MR) included 11 studies, and summary-level MR included 55 114 AF cases and 482 295 referents, all of European ancestry.EXPOSURES Genomewide significant variants were used as instruments for standardized FT4 and thyrotropin levels within the reference range, standardized triiodothyronine (FT3):FT4 ratio, hypothyroidism, standardized thyroid peroxidase antibody levels, and hyperthyroidism. Mendelian randomization used genetic risk scores in study-level analysis or individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 2-sample MR for the summary-level data.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalent and incident AF.RESULTS The study-level analysis included 7679 individuals with AF and 49 233 referents (mean age [standard error], 62 [3] years; 15 859 men [29.7%]). In study-level random-effects meta-analysis, the pooled hazard ratio of FT4 levels (nanograms per deciliter) for incident AF was 1.55 (95% CI, 1.09-2.20; P = .02; I-2= 76%) and the pooled odds ratio (OR) for prevalent AF was 2.80 (95% CI, 1.41-5.54; P = .003; I-2 = 64%) in multivariable-adjusted analyses. The FT4 genetic risk score was associated with an increase in FT(4 )by 0.082 SD (standard error, 0.007; P < .001) but not with incident AF (risk ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.62-1.14; P = .27) or prevalent AF (OR, 132; 95% CI, 0.64-2.73; P = .46). Similarly, in summary-level inverse-variance weighted random-effects MR, gene-based FT4 within the reference range was not associated with AF (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.89-1.14; P = .88). However, gene-based increased FT3:FT(4 )ratio, increased thyrotropin within the reference range, and hypothyroidism were associated with AF with inverse-variance weighted random-effects OR of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.08-1.63; P = .006), 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.92; P < .001), and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99; P = .009), respectively, and robust to tests of horizontal pleiotropy. However, the subset of hypothyroidism single-nucleotide polymorphisms involved in autoimmunity and thyroid peroxidase antibodies levels were not associated with AF. Gene-based hyperthyroidism was associated with AF with MR-Egger OR of 1.31(95% CI, 1.05-1.63; P = .02) with evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P = .045).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Genetically increased FT3:FT(4 )ratio and hyperthyroidism, but not FT4 within the reference range, were associated with increased AF, and increased thyrotropin within the reference range and hypothyroidism were associated with decreased AF, supporting a pathway involving the pituitary-thyroid-cardiac axis. Show less
