Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived... Show moreRisk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with -1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously. Show less
BACKGROUND: Genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 is a recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effect on disease progression and subsequent events is unclear, raising... Show moreBACKGROUND: Genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 is a recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effect on disease progression and subsequent events is unclear, raising questions about its value for stratification of residual risk.METHODS: A variant at chromosome 9p21 (rs1333049) was tested for association with subsequent events during follow-up in 103 357 Europeans with established CHD at baseline from the GENIUS-CHD (Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease) Consortium (73.1% male, mean age 62.9 years). The primary outcome, subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction), occurred in 13 040 of the 93 115 participants with available outcome data. Effect estimates were compared with case/control risk obtained from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics) including 47 222 CHD cases and 122 264 controls free of CHD.RESULTS: Meta-analyses revealed no significant association between chromosome 9p21 and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline (GENIUSCHD odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.99-1.05). This contrasted with a strong association in CARDIoGRAMPlusC4D odds ratio 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22; P for interaction < 0.001 compared with the GENIUS-CHD estimate. Similarly, no clear associations were identified for additional subsequent outcomes, including all-cause death, although we found a modest positive association between chromosome 9p21 and subsequent revascularization (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09).CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to studies comparing individuals with CHD to disease-free controls, we found no clear association between genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 and risk of subsequent acute CHD events when all individuals had CHD at baseline. However, the association with subsequent revascularization may support the postulated mechanism of chromosome 9p21 for promoting atheroma development. Show less
BACKGROUND: The Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of... Show moreBACKGROUND: The Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of subsequent CHD events, in individuals with established CHD.METHODS: The consortium currently includes 57 studies from 18 countries, recruiting 185 614 participants with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. All studies collected biological samples and followed-up study participants prospectively for subsequent events.RESULTS: Enrollment into the individual studies took place between 1985 to present day with a duration of follow-up ranging from 9 months to 15 years. Within each study, participants with CHD are predominantly of self-reported European descent (38%-100%), mostly male (44%-91%) with mean ages at recruitment ranging from 40 to 75 years. Initial feasibility analyses, using a federated analysis approach, yielded expected associations between age (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) per 5-year increase, male sex (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.21) and smoking (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51) with risk of subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction and differing associations with other individual and composite cardiovascular endpoints.CONCLUSIONS: GENIUS-CHD is a global collaboration seeking to elucidate genetic and nongenetic determinants of subsequent event risk in individuals with established CHD, to improve residual risk prediction and identify novel drug targets for secondary prevention. Initial analyses demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of a federated analysis approach. The consortium now plans to initiate and test novel hypotheses as well as supporting replication and validation analyses for other investigators. Show less
Dalcetrapib increases high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels through effects on cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP). As part of the dalcetrapib dal-HEART clinical trial programme... Show moreDalcetrapib increases high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels through effects on cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP). As part of the dalcetrapib dal-HEART clinical trial programme, the efficacy and safety of dalcetrapib is assessed in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in the dal-VESSEL study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00655538), the design and methods of which are presented here. Men and women with CHD or CHD risk equivalent, with HDL-C levels < 50 mg/dL were recruited for a 36-week, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial. After a pre-randomisation phase of up to 8 weeks, patients received dalcetrapib 600 mg/day or placebo in addition to their existing treatments. Brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) measured by B-mode ultrasound represents endothelial function and is a validated marker for early atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease risk. The primary efficacy outcome is change from baseline in brachial FMD after 12 weeks. The primary safety endpoint is 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) assessed at week 4. Secondary endpoints include brachial FMD at 36 weeks, ABPM at 12 and 36 weeks, lipid profile, CETP mass and activity, and markers of inflammation, oxidation, and cardiovascular risk. Clinical endpoints are assessed as a composite endpoint for the dal-HEART Program. In 19 European clinical centres, 476 subjects met inclusion criteria and have entered the study. In conclusion, the dal-VESSEL study is the largest multicentre trial with brachial FMD ever performed. The study assesses efficacy and safety of dalcetrapib on endothelial function, blood pressure, lipids, and clinical outcomes in CHD patients with below average HDL-C and will therefore provide vital information regarding its potential role in the preventative treatment of CHD risk. Show less
