Objectives: In the SPRINT trial, 18% of patients with a tibial shaft fracture (TSF) treated with intramedullary nailing (IMN) had one or more unplanned subsequent surgical procedures. It is... Show moreObjectives: In the SPRINT trial, 18% of patients with a tibial shaft fracture (TSF) treated with intramedullary nailing (IMN) had one or more unplanned subsequent surgical procedures. It is clinically relevant for surgeon and patient to anticipate unplanned secondary procedures, other than operations that can be readily expected such as reconstructive procedures for soft tissue defects. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) prediction model using the SPRINT data that can give individual patients and their care team an estimate of their particular probability of an unplanned second surgery. Methods: Patients from the SPRINT trial with unilateral TSFs were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and test set (20%). Five ML algorithms were trained in recognizing patterns associated with subsequent surgery in the training set based on a subset of variables identified by random forest algorithms. Performance of each ML algorithm was evaluated and compared based on (1) area under the ROC curve, (2) calibration slope and intercept, and (3) the Brier score. Results: Total data set comprised 1198 patients, of whom 214 patients (18%) underwent subsequent surgery. Seven variables were used to train ML algorithms: (1) Gustilo-Anderson classification, (2) Tscherne classification, (3) fracture location, (4) fracture gap, (5) polytrauma, (6) injury mechanism, and (7) OTA/AO classification. The best-performing ML algorithm had an area under the ROC curve, calibration slope, calibration intercept, and the Brier score of 0.766, 0.954, -0.002, and 0.120 in the training set and 0.773, 0.922, 0, and 0.119 in the test set, respectively. Conclusions: An ML algorithm was developed to predict the probability of subsequent surgery after IMN for TSFs. This ML algorithm may assist surgeons to inform patients about the probability of subsequent surgery and might help to identify patients who need a different perioperative plan or a more intensive approach. Show less
Aims HTL0009936 is a selective M-1 muscarinic receptor agonist in development for cognitive dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease. Safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics and exploratory... Show moreAims HTL0009936 is a selective M-1 muscarinic receptor agonist in development for cognitive dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease. Safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics and exploratory pharmacodynamic effects of HTL0009936 administered by continuous IV infusion at steady state were investigated in elderly subjects with below average cognitive functioning (BACF).Methods Part A was a four-treatment open label sequential study in healthy elderly investigating 10-83 mg HTL0009936 (IV) and a 24 mg HTL0009936 single oral dose. Part B was a five-treatment randomized, double-blind, placebo and physostigmine controlled cross-over study with IV HTL0009936 in elderly subjects with BACF. Pharmacodynamic assessments were performed using neurocognitive and electrophysiological tests.Results Pharmacokinetics of HTL0009936 showed dose-proportional increases in exposure with a mean half-life of 2.4 hours. HTL0009936 was well-tolerated with transient dose-related adverse events (AEs). Small increases in mean systolic blood pressure of 7.12 mmHg (95% CI [3.99-10.24]) and in diastolic of 5.32 mmHg (95% CI [3.18-7.47]) were noted at the highest dose in part B. Overall, there was suggestive, but no definitive, positive or negative pharmacodynamic effects. Statistically significant effects were observed on P300 with HTL0009936 and adaptive tracking with physostigmine.Conclusions HTL0009936 showed well-characterized pharmacokinetics and single doses were safe and generally well-tolerated in healthy elderly subjects. Due to physostigmine tolerability issues and subject burden, the study design was changed and some pharmacodynamic assessments (neurocognitive) were performed at suboptimal drug exposures. Therefore no clear conclusions can be made on pharmacodynamic effects of HTL0009936, although an effect on P300 is suggestive of central target engagement. Show less
Background: The cholinergic system and M-1 receptor remain an important target for symptomatic treatment of cognitive dysfunction. The selective M-1 receptor partial agonist HTL0018318 is under... Show moreBackground: The cholinergic system and M-1 receptor remain an important target for symptomatic treatment of cognitive dysfunction. The selective M-1 receptor partial agonist HTL0018318 is under development for the symptomatic treatment of Dementia's including Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). We investigated the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and exploratory pharmacodynamics of multiple doses of HTL0018318 in healthy younger adults and elderly subjects.Methods: This randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled study was performed, investigating oral doses of 15-35 mg/day HTL0018318 or placebo in 7 cohorts of healthy younger adult (n = 36; 3 cohorts) and elderly (n = 50; 4 cohorts) subjects. Safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetic measurements were performed. Pharmacodynamics were assessed using a battery of neurocognitive tasks and electrophysiological biomarkers of synaptic and cognitive functions.Results: HTL0018318 was generally well-tolerated in multiple doses up to 35 mg/day and were associated with mild or moderate cholinergic adverse events. There were modest increases in blood pressure and pulse rate when compared to placebo-treated subjects, with tendency for the blood pressure increase to attenuate with repeated dosing. There were no clinically significant observations or changes in blood and urine laboratory measures of safety or abnormalities in the ECGs and 24-h Holter assessments. HTL0018318 plasma exposure was dose-proportional over the range 15-35 mg. Maximum plasma concentrations were achieved after 1-2 h. The apparent terminal half-life of HTL0018318 was 16.1 h (+/- 4.61) in younger adult subjects and 14.3 h (+/- 2.78) in elderly subjects at steady state. HTL0018318 over the 10 days of treatment had significant effects on tests of short-term (working) memory (n-back) and learning (Milner maze) with moderate to large effect sizes.Conclusion: Multiple doses of HTL0018138 showed well-characterised pharmacokinetics and were safe and generally well-tolerated in the dose range studied. Pro-cognitive effects on short-term memory and learning were demonstrated across the dose range. These data provide encouraging data in support of the development of HTL0018138 for cognitive dysfunction in AD and DLB. Show less
Aims HTL0018318 is a selective M-1 receptor partial agonist currently under development for the symptomatic treatment of cognitive and behavioural symptoms in Alzheimer's disease and other... Show moreAims HTL0018318 is a selective M-1 receptor partial agonist currently under development for the symptomatic treatment of cognitive and behavioural symptoms in Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. We investigated safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and exploratory pharmacodynamics (PD) of HTL0018318 following single ascending doses.Methods This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 40 healthy younger adult and 57 healthy elderly subjects, investigated oral doses of 1-35 mg HTL0018318. Pharmacodynamic assessments were performed using a battery of neurocognitive tasks and electrophysiological measurements. Cerebrospinal fluid concentrations of HTL0018318 and food effects on pharmacokinetics of HTL0018318 were investigated in an open label and partial cross-over design in 14 healthy subjects.Results Pharmacokinetics of HTL0018318 were well-characterized showing dose proportional increases in exposure from 1-35 mg. Single doses of HTL0018318 were associated with mild dose-related adverse events of low incidence in both younger adult and elderly subjects. The most frequently reported cholinergic AEs included hyperhidrosis and increases in blood pressure up to 10.3 mmHg in younger adults (95% CI [4.2-16.3], 35-mg dose) and up to 11.9 mmHg in elderly subjects (95% CI [4.9-18.9], 15-mg dose). There were no statistically significant effects on cognitive function but the study was not powered to detect small to moderate effect sizes of clinical relevance.Conclusion HTL0018318 showed well-characterized pharmacokinetics and following single doses were generally well tolerated in the dose range studied. These provide encouraging data in support of the development for HTL0018318 for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Show less
