Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could... Show morePolygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, "select and shrink for summary statistics" (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28-1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08-1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21-1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29-1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35-1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs. Show less
BACKGROUND Endometrial cancers (ECs) with somatic mutations in DNA polymerase epsilon (POLE) are characterized by unfavorable pathological features, which prompt adjuvant treatment. Paradoxically,... Show moreBACKGROUND Endometrial cancers (ECs) with somatic mutations in DNA polymerase epsilon (POLE) are characterized by unfavorable pathological features, which prompt adjuvant treatment. Paradoxically, women with POLE-mutated EC have outstanding clinical outcomes, and this raises concerns of overtreatment. The authors investigated whether favorable outcomes were independent of treatment. METHODS A PubMed search for POLE and endometrial was restricted to articles published between March 1, 2012, and March 1, 2018, that provided individual patient data (IPD), adjuvant treatment, and survival. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) reporting guidelines for IPD, the authors used univariate and multivariate one-stage meta-analyses with mixed effects Cox models (random effects for study cohorts) to infer the associations of treatment, traditional prognostic factors, and outcome, which was defined as the time from first diagnosis to any adverse event (progression/recurrence or death from EC). RESULTS Three hundred fifty-nine women with POLE-mutated EC were identified; 294 (82%) had pathogenic mutations. Worse outcomes were demonstrated in patients with nonpathogenic POLE mutations (hazard ratio, 3.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-7.58; log-rank P < .01). Except for stage (P < .01), traditional prognosticators were not associated with progression/recurrence or death from disease. Adverse events were rare (11 progressions/recurrences and 3 disease-specific deaths). Salvage rates in patients who experienced recurrence were high and sustained, with 8 of 11 alive without evidence of disease (range, 5.5-14.2 years). Adjuvant treatment was not associated with outcome. CONCLUSIONS Clinical outcomes for ECs with pathogenic POLE mutations are not associated with most traditional risk parameters, and patients do not appear to benefit from adjuvant therapy. The observed low rates of recurrence/progression and the high and sustained salvage rates raise the possibility of safely de-escalating treatment for these patients. LAY SUMMARY Ten percent of all endometrial cancers have mutations in the DNA repair gene DNA polymerase epsilon (POLE). Women who have endometrial cancers with true POLE mutations experience almost no recurrences or deaths from their cancer even when their tumors appear to have very unfavorable characteristics. Additional therapy (radiation and chemotherapy) does not appear to improve outcomes for women with POLE-mutated endometrial cancer, and this supports the move to less therapy and less associated toxicity. Diligent classification of endometrial cancers by molecular features provides valuable information to inform prognosis and to direct treatment/no treatment. Show less
BACKGROUND Endometrial cancers (ECs) with somatic mutations in DNA polymerase epsilon (POLE) are characterized by unfavorable pathological features, which prompt adjuvant treatment. Paradoxically,... Show moreBACKGROUND Endometrial cancers (ECs) with somatic mutations in DNA polymerase epsilon (POLE) are characterized by unfavorable pathological features, which prompt adjuvant treatment. Paradoxically, women with POLE-mutated EC have outstanding clinical outcomes, and this raises concerns of overtreatment. The authors investigated whether favorable outcomes were independent of treatment.METHODS A PubMed search for POLE and endometrial was restricted to articles published between March 1, 2012, and March 1, 2018, that provided individual patient data (IPD), adjuvant treatment, and survival. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) reporting guidelines for IPD, the authors used univariate and multivariate one-stage meta-analyses with mixed effects Cox models (random effects for study cohorts) to infer the associations of treatment, traditional prognostic factors, and outcome, which was defined as the time from first diagnosis to any adverse event (progression/recurrence or death from EC).RESULTS Three hundred fifty-nine women with POLE-mutated EC were identified; 294 (82%) had pathogenic mutations. Worse outcomes were demonstrated in patients with nonpathogenic POLE mutations (hazard ratio, 3.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-7.58; log-rank P < .01). Except for stage (P < .01), traditional prognosticators were not associated with progression/recurrence or death from disease. Adverse events were rare (11 progressions/recurrences and 3 disease-specific deaths). Salvage rates in patients who experienced recurrence were high and sustained, with 8 of 11 alive without evidence of disease (range, 5.5-14.2 years). Adjuvant treatment was not associated with outcome.CONCLUSIONS Clinical outcomes for ECs with pathogenic POLE mutations are not associated with most traditional risk parameters, and patients do not appear to benefit from adjuvant therapy. The observed low rates of recurrence/progression and the high and sustained salvage rates raise the possibility of safely de-escalating treatment for these patients.LAY SUMMARYTen percent of all endometrial cancers have mutations in the DNA repair gene DNA polymerase epsilon (POLE).Women who have endometrial cancers with true POLE mutations experience almost no recurrences or deaths from their cancer even when their tumors appear to have very unfavorable characteristics.Additional therapy (radiation and chemotherapy) does not appear to improve outcomes for women with POLE-mutated endometrial cancer, and this supports the move to less therapy and less associated toxicity.Diligent classification of endometrial cancers by molecular features provides valuable information to inform prognosis and to direct treatment/no treatment. Show less
