The energy system is at the heart of two of the greatest challenges of the 21st century: decreasing CO2 emissions to meet the ambitions of the Paris agreement while fulfilling the growing energy... Show moreThe energy system is at the heart of two of the greatest challenges of the 21st century: decreasing CO2 emissions to meet the ambitions of the Paris agreement while fulfilling the growing energy demand associated with the economic aspirations of a growing world population. The required energy transition has to emerge from the interaction between social actors, the economy, technology and the eco-system of our planet. That is the subject of this dissertation which explores the question how individual drivers and the interactions between actors influence the path and pace of the developing energy transition.To analyse the dynamics of interactions between actors, a relatively new modeling method, agent-based modeling, has been applied, with which actors, agents, as computer entities can be simulated. By simulating realistic actor behavior, the dynamics between individual motives and emergent collective action could be analysed.This has led to new insights; simulating investors in the electricity market for example has shown that a fully liberalized electricity market, even with strong CO2, will not ensure complete decarbonisation of the electricity system.All this has led to recommendations for public and private actors and more general conclusions about the use of models in general. Show less
In this dissertation the necessity and benefits of developing integrated policy approaches to the energy systems in general, and power systems in particular were assessed. The research work covers... Show moreIn this dissertation the necessity and benefits of developing integrated policy approaches to the energy systems in general, and power systems in particular were assessed. The research work covers not only the integration of energy and environment policy objectives, but also the integration of different policy instruments along the power system. A two part methodology was developed: 1) a framework to map and qualitatively assess the most relevant interactions between the energy and environment policy instruments currently in place, and 2) a complementary methodology to quantify the effects of the most relevant interactions using an optimisation bottom-up energy system model (TIMES model). It is concluded that there are relevant interactions between current energy and environment policies instruments along the power system. These are named co-effects and can be either synergetic or antagonistic. It was found that antagonistic co-effects affect effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the policy instruments and can represent a significant cost for the overall energy system. For the case-study of Portugal used in this dissertation, antagonistic interactions between policies were estimated to representing roughly up to 2% of the 2010 Portuguese GDP Show less
Sustainability challenges raised by built environment development are two-folds: on the inflow side these include resource depletion and emission problems due to material production (pre-use); on... Show moreSustainability challenges raised by built environment development are two-folds: on the inflow side these include resource depletion and emission problems due to material production (pre-use); on the outflow side they include problems of construction and demolition waste (after-use). Understanding how the future construction inflow and demolition outflow will develop is essential for early recognition of these problems. A traditional approach is through extrapolation, which is risky because changes of trends may occur. A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis approach, based on the Law of Mass Preservation, provides a better framework for long-term projection. The challenge is to understand the dynamics of the built environment stocks. It is especially true for the emerging countries, where the combined influences of rapid economic development and urbanization have to be considered but are yet rarely investigated. This thesis develops the currently available approaches by including general socio-economic and specific urbanization-driven factors in China. Case studies on Chinese housing stock dynamics indicate: demolition activities in Chinese cities will continue to grow throughout the rest of the 21st century; a shrinking demand for residential steel may be expected over the next few decades, which may lead to a decrease in global steel consumption of up to 10%. Show less
