The EU has powerful enforcement mechanisms to curb democratic backsliding and support the rule of law in its member states. While (the threat of) enforcement is necessary, sanctions might be... Show moreThe EU has powerful enforcement mechanisms to curb democratic backsliding and support the rule of law in its member states. While (the threat of) enforcement is necessary, sanctions might be difficult to accept as legitimate when they hurt a citizen's country. We study the perceived legitimacy of EU enforcement actions. We develop hypotheses about the influence of national identity, party support, procedural fairness, descriptive norm prevalence, and the likely effects of the sanctions on the future of cooperation. These hypotheses are tested with a survey experiment administered to a nationally-representative sample in Poland. The focus is on the substantial financial sanctions imposed by the EU concerning judicial independence. The results show that exclusive national identity, the perceived importance of the rule of law, support for European integration and party support are strongly associated with perceived legitimacy. Providing information about the prevalence of public support for judicial independence in the country increases significantly the perceived legitimacy of enforcement actions. We find no evidence for effects of arguments about Polexit, future deterrence effects of the sanctions or their procedural (un)fairness. EU sanctions might not lead to further backlash among the domestic public, but they are unlikely to generate public pressure for reforms. Show less
Dit briefadvies maakt eerst kort de balans op van twee jaar oorlog. Vervolgens constateert de Raad dat de westerse consensus brozer wordt, dat er kantelpunten in zicht zijn en dat een langdurige... Show moreDit briefadvies maakt eerst kort de balans op van twee jaar oorlog. Vervolgens constateert de Raad dat de westerse consensus brozer wordt, dat er kantelpunten in zicht zijn en dat een langdurige patstelling dreigt. De vraag naar een adequate Nederlandse opstelling dient zich aan, ook voor de nieuw aan te treden regering. Het adviesrapport benadrukt de noodzaak van onverminderde Nederlandse en Europese steun aan Oekraïne en geeft aan dat Nederland zich proactiever moet voorbereiden op verschillende scenario’s voor de oorlog in Oekraïne en actief dient te streven naar de meest wenselijke uitkomsten, waaronder een overwinning voor Oekraïne of een sterke onderhandelingspositie voor het land.Het advies bespreekt daarna zes thema’s in meer detail: 1) de Europese veiligheidsarchitectuur; 2) de Europese defensie-industrie; 3) het perspectief op Oekraïens EU-lidmaatschap; 4) Oekraïne’s wederopbouw; 5) de gevolgen van de oorlog voor het mondiale Zuiden; en 6) weerbaarheid en draagvlak. Deze bespreking leidt tot een korte conclusie en een zestal aanbevelingen. Show less
The vulnerability of chemical and process facilities toward physical security attacks depends on the equipment resistance against such attacks and on the performance of Physical Protection Systems ... Show moreThe vulnerability of chemical and process facilities toward physical security attacks depends on the equipment resistance against such attacks and on the performance of Physical Protection Systems (PPS) in place. To enhance the protection against intentional attacks, the development of quantitative vulnerability metrics is essential, nevertheless current standard approaches only offer qualitative or semi-quantitative evaluations. The aim of the present work is to develop a quantitative methodology for the assessment of chemical and process facilities vulnerability towards external acts of interference. The proposed methodology is based both on the evaluation of equipment structural integrity in response to different types of specific impact vectors characterizing intentional attacks and on the quantitative performance assessment of related PPS. In particular, specific fragility models were developed for impact vectors associated with improvised explosive devices, firearms, and incendiary weapons. The novel fragility models were implemented in a comprehensive security vulnerability assessment (SVA) based on Bayesian Networks, in which the contribution of PPS performance was also considered. A case study was defined and analyzed to exemplify the application of the proposed approach. The results obtained allowed for the identification of the most critical security-related escalation scenarios and thus for an improved quantitative SVA. Show less
Kuipers, S; Perlstein, S.; Wolbers, J.; Jong, W. 2023
Communication has always been key to crisis management research, but even more so in recent years, from multiple disciplinary angles. In this bibliometric study and review of the literature, we aim... Show moreCommunication has always been key to crisis management research, but even more so in recent years, from multiple disciplinary angles. In this bibliometric study and review of the literature, we aim to identify different clusters of crisis communication research in the literature and whether and how much these crisis communication research clusters overlap. With different fields taking an interest in crisis communication, we ask ourselves where the interests of these fields overlap, and to what extent the different communities are aware of each other's work. Apart from offering an overview of topical clusters in crisis communication research and connections between those clusters of studies on crisis communication, we identify and explain two main approaches to crisis communication: a political or accusatory approach, and a functional or assistory approach. We conclude in our study and discussion that these approaches may need to broaden their research horizons to ensure the applicability of crisis communication strategies beyond the countries, media platforms, and audience orientations that have predominantly shaped the existing research landscape Show less
De afgelopen jaren werd Nederland geconfronteerd met een toename van aanslagen door de georganiseerde misdaad op objecten en personen die geen onderdeel uitmaken van criminele netwerken. Tegen deze... Show moreDe afgelopen jaren werd Nederland geconfronteerd met een toename van aanslagen door de georganiseerde misdaad op objecten en personen die geen onderdeel uitmaken van criminele netwerken. Tegen deze achtergrond wordt door politici en journalisten steeds vaker de term narcoterrorisme gebruikt. In dit artikel wordt de herkomst van deze term onderzocht en gekeken in welke mate deze past bij de situatie in Nederland met betrekking tot de georganiseerde misdaad. Daarnaast worden de voor- en nadelen benoemd van het gebruik van deze term in het maatschappelijke en wetenschappelijke debat. Tot slot reflecteren we op de politieke aandacht voor dit geweld en de impact daarvan op de democratische rechtsorde. Show less
Recente onderzoeken laten ten slotte zien dat naast politici veel andere beroepsgroepen, zoals journalisten, togadragers en advocaten, de afgelopen jaren in toenemende mate met intimidatie en ... Show moreRecente onderzoeken laten ten slotte zien dat naast politici veel andere beroepsgroepen, zoals journalisten, togadragers en advocaten, de afgelopen jaren in toenemende mate met intimidatie en (doods)bedreigingen te maken krijgen. Dat leidt ertoe dat zij in sommige gevallen hun werk niet meer goed kunnen of willen uitvoeren. In de ergste gevallen zijn de bedreigingen aanleiding om in het stelsel bewaken en beveiligen te worden opgenomen. In het licht van deze ontwikkelingen is het interessant om te bestuderen in welke mate politieke partijen in de verkiezingsprogramma’s van 2023 aandacht besteden aan het stelsel bewaken en beveiligen. Het is aannemelijk dat het stelsel de politiek niet onberoerd laat, omdat het politici zelf niet onberoerd raakt.Om die reden heeft het onderzoeksproject Bewaken en Beveiligen van Universiteit Leiden een analyse gemaakt van de verschillende partijprogramma’s om te bestuderen in welke mate het stelsel, zowel direct als indirect, aandacht krijgt. Conclusie: vrijwel elke partij onderschrijft dat het vrije woord en de rechtsstaat in Nederland onder druk staat. Desondanks is het stelsel bewaken en beveiligen voor sommige partijen een topprioriteit, en voor andere partijen een non-issue. Show less
Rhôn, R.R.; Abeelen, M. van; Masoliver, C.E.; Land, S.W. van 't; Bakker, E.; Buuren, G.M. van; Hofkamp, R. 2023
In deze editie van de Verdieping wordt er onder andere aandacht besteed aan de moord op de Ecuadoraanse politicus Fernando Villavicencio. Renato Rivera Rhôn blikt terug op de moord en de kritiek op... Show moreIn deze editie van de Verdieping wordt er onder andere aandacht besteed aan de moord op de Ecuadoraanse politicus Fernando Villavicencio. Renato Rivera Rhôn blikt terug op de moord en de kritiek op de tekortkomingen in de beveiligingsmaatregelen rond de presidentskandidaat. De nieuwe circulaire bewaken en beveiligen wordt toegelicht door beleidsmedewerker Mireille van Abeelen. Caitlin Masoliver en Stijn Willem van ‘t Land beschouwen nieuwe contraterrorismewetgeving in Engeland (Martyn’s Law)en de gevolgendaarvan voor de beveiliging van evenementenlocaties in dat land. Verdere bijdragen gaan over de implicaties van (counter)dronetechnologie voor het stelsel bewaken en beveiligen, opbrengsten van de Leergang Bewaken en Beveiligen, politieke aandacht voor het stelsel in het licht van de landelijke verkiezingen van 2023, en het oplaaiende bendegeweld in Zweden.De Verdieping Bewaken en Beveiligen brengt verdieping aan op actuele gebeurtenissen en ontwikkelingen gerelateerd aan het stelsel Bewaken en Beveiligen. Deze Verdieping wordt aangeboden aan experts die werkzaam zijn bij de stelselpartners en de ketenpartners van het stelsel. Daarnaast wordt dit product aangeboden aan geïnteresseerden in een bredere kring rond het stelsel, waaronder academici, journalisten en politici. Show less
Most individuals with radical ideologies will not evolve into violent extremists, let alone terrorists. Understanding the dynamics and various pathways into a radical ideology is nonetheless... Show moreMost individuals with radical ideologies will not evolve into violent extremists, let alone terrorists. Understanding the dynamics and various pathways into a radical ideology is nonetheless important. However, empirical research on pathways into left-wing radicalization is scarce. In this chapter, we define the concept of left-wing radicalization in relation to extremism and provide an overview of existing research on left-wing radicalization. Drawing on case studies and our own empirical research, we discuss both individual motives for participation in radical left groups and macro-level factors in the political and societal context that impact the growth or demise of radical left groups. Show less
Sammut, F.; Suda, D.; Caruana, M.A.; Bogolyubova, O. 2023
This study was conducted to determine the predictors of COVID-19 vaccination attitudes across multiple waves in seven countries geographically spread across the European continent, using data from... Show moreThis study was conducted to determine the predictors of COVID-19 vaccination attitudes across multiple waves in seven countries geographically spread across the European continent, using data from a COVID-19 survey provided by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology COVID-19. Facebook users from across the globe participated in this survey which collected information on their knowledge of COVID-19, attitudes towards risk and available information, and their willingness or lack thereof to take the vaccine. In this secondary data analysis study, neural networks were used with special attention given to the importance of the predictors of COVID-19 vaccination attitudes. Perception of social norms regarding COVID-19 vaccination was found to be the most important predictor of vaccine acceptance. Country of residence and wave of data collection were among the important predictors, with different patterns for each country emerging across different waves. Other strong predictors included attitudes towards masks and mask wearing; attitudes towards the influenza vaccine; distrust in government health authorities and scientists; and level of knowledge of existing treatments for COVID-19. The results of this study can inform effective public health prevention and intervention efforts against infectious diseases. Show less
Hofkamp, R.; Marijnissen, D.; Roy van Zuijdewijn, J.H. de; Schlicher, L.P.J.; Land, S.W. van 't; Spithoven, R.; ... ; Bakker, E. 2023
De ‘Verdieping Bewaken en Beveiligen’ brengt verdieping aan op actuele gebeurtenissen en ontwikkelingen gerelateerd aan het stelsel Bewaken en Beveiligen. Deze Verdieping wordt aangeboden aan... Show moreDe ‘Verdieping Bewaken en Beveiligen’ brengt verdieping aan op actuele gebeurtenissen en ontwikkelingen gerelateerd aan het stelsel Bewaken en Beveiligen. Deze Verdieping wordt aangeboden aan experts die werkzaam zijn bij de stelselpartners en de ketenpartners van het stelsel. Daarnaast wordt dit product aangeboden aan geïnteresseerden in een bredere kring rond het stelsel, waaronder academici, journalisten en politici. Show less
How much should someone contribute to trying to prevent unnecessary deaths and severe hardships? MacAskill, Mogensen, and Ord propose tithing for most of the rich (as measured by income), whichhas... Show moreHow much should someone contribute to trying to prevent unnecessary deaths and severe hardships? MacAskill, Mogensen, and Ord propose tithing for most of the rich (as measured by income), whichhas been influential in the effective altruism community. My aim in this article is to contribute, through amending their proposal, to their important project of searching for a weak or very weak principle ofsacrifice that would still revise upward how much money goes to the most effective organizations. I do so by presenting four objections to their argument based on demandingness, fairness, net wealth, and historical and contemporary injustices. Then, I show that a principle of progressive can overcome these objections and better fits the reasons MacAskill, Mogensen, and Ord give in favour of their principle than their proposed operationalization of tithing. Show less
Díaz Fernández, A.M.; Solari Merlo, M.; Real, C. del 2023
Diferentes instrumentos como el ‘Plan Andalucía Smart 2020’ o la Estrategia Local de Ciudad Inteligente de Andalucía contemplan a la seguridad y las emergencias como áreas sobre las cuáles... Show moreDiferentes instrumentos como el ‘Plan Andalucía Smart 2020’ o la Estrategia Local de Ciudad Inteligente de Andalucía contemplan a la seguridad y las emergencias como áreas sobre las cuáles desarrollar proyectos e iniciativas de Smart city para Andalucía. Un análisis de las 36 ciudades y municipios andaluces que cuentan con este tipo de iniciativas arroja diferentes conclusiones. En primer lugar, el número de iniciativas en estos ámbitos es aún muy reducida. En segundo lugar, las soluciones tecnológicas adoptadas se centran en la capa de sensores, sobre todo a través de sistemas de cámaras CCTV, no existiendo ninguna solución basada en medición biométrica de los ciudadanos. Por su parte, la capa de actuación está aún poco desarrollada, centrándose en respuestas luminosas o en paneles informativos. Como conclusión podemos establecer la necesidad de desarrollar una aproximación más comprehensiva a estas soluciones y que se produzca una mayor utilización de lo obtenido a través de la capa de sensores en la capa de actuación. Show less
Volgens de AIVD denken ruim honderdduizend burgers dat Nederland wordt bestuurd door een kwaadwillende elite en dat democratische instituties zijn verworden tot een decor waarachter de echte macht... Show moreVolgens de AIVD denken ruim honderdduizend burgers dat Nederland wordt bestuurd door een kwaadwillende elite en dat democratische instituties zijn verworden tot een decor waarachter de echte macht schuilgaat. Is de democratische rechtsorde in gevaar? Show less
This article presents the findings of exploratory research into the origins of OSINT for which it discusses three case studies from, respectively, the United States, Germany and the Netherlands.... Show moreThis article presents the findings of exploratory research into the origins of OSINT for which it discusses three case studies from, respectively, the United States, Germany and the Netherlands. Many authors writing on open source intelligence assume that the first OSINT practices emerged at the eve of the Second World War with the establishment of the BBC Monitoring Services and the Foreign Broadcast Monitoring Service. Building on existing studies, which are supplemented with original archive research, this article demonstrates that OSINT has a much longer and richer history. Methodical efforts to collect and exploit information from publicly available sources to fulfil intelligence requirements are documented as early as halfway the 19th century in the United States and early 20th century in Europe. Show less
Marroni, G.; Casini, L.; Kuipers, S.; Dentone, D.; Mossa Verre, M.; Overdijk, W.; ... ; Landucci, G. 2023
Industrial sites processing and storing hazardous chemicals can be attractive targets of malicious acts of interference. The consequences successful intentional attacks to chemical facilities can... Show moreIndustrial sites processing and storing hazardous chemicals can be attractive targets of malicious acts of interference. The consequences successful intentional attacks to chemical facilities can be severe and could escalate generating domino effects, potentially affecting people and the environment. Moreover, intentional attacks have a dynamic escalation that is not well depicted by conventional analyses, which are instead static. This works focuses on the development of a comprehensive tool for Integrated Safety-Security risk assessment and related domino effects based on a three-dimensional (3D) real-time approach. Firstly, the plant is inspected using a drone to generate the graphic interface of the tool, which is the 3D reconstruction of the plant. Real-time data are associated with each mapped element, e.g., pressure/temperature conditions. The tool allows for the evaluation of probabilities and 3D consequences of accidents given real time and/or user input data. Potential domino effects of integrated safety-security scenarios will also be included in the tool, allowing for the mapping of plant vulnerability, risk and supporting the evaluation of weaknesses and need of additional countermeasures. In order to provide a sample application, a simplified version of the tool was used on a case study Show less
Over the last decade, several middle powers have sought to strengthen their state capacity by digitalizing the provision of key governance services. Through public digital infrastructure, they have... Show moreOver the last decade, several middle powers have sought to strengthen their state capacity by digitalizing the provision of key governance services. Through public digital infrastructure, they have attempted to address problems of scale by fostering greater precision in domains such as healthcare, access to credit, and social security. These digital services – ‘middleware’ – have traditionally been built with the help of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs): lines of code governing how data is fetched from public databases and shared or stored by public and private entities alike. Advancements in AI present a further opportunity for these states to leapfrog bottlenecks associated with human resources development by building “intelligent” bots and service providers. AI-enabled middleware too is built atop APIs relying on machine learning models to detect patterns and provide predictive responses. High degrees of standardization and centralization in the provision and upkeep of intelligent algorithms carry risks and vulnerabilities, also of a strategic nature. Malicious actors could compromise the API, and corrupt training data, thereby manipulating the AI-enabled service at the front end, to worrying consequences. This chapter surveys proposals by India, Singapore, and Brazil to build AI-enabled governance services, and details strategic risks associated with their deployment. While intelligent programs may allow middle powers to sidestep logistical and resource-based constraints, they also open new theatres of cyber conflict, inviting adversaries to disrupt or disable key engines of their economic growth. Show less
This article provides a reflection on the jihadist threat, the policies and actors that deal with this threat and the impact of jihadism and counterterrorism in Western Europe in the past twenty... Show moreThis article provides a reflection on the jihadist threat, the policies and actors that deal with this threat and the impact of jihadism and counterterrorism in Western Europe in the past twenty years. It describes how the threat, counterterrorism policies and their impact have developed over time and demonstrates how threat perceptions in society and the political arena have not always been aligned with the actual threat. There have been periods of disbalance between the threat and responses to it, leading to both overreactions and inflated threat descriptions and fear levels, as well as periods with limited attention that might have contributed to unpleasant surprises at a later stage. Against this backdrop, the article criticises the incident-driven approach to counterterrorism and warns against both overreactions as well as ‘jihadism fatigue’. Show less
