PURPOSE The Groningen International Study on Sentinel nodes in Vulvar cancer (GROINSS-V)-II investigated whether inguinofemoral radiotherapy is a safe alternative to inguinofemoral lymphadenectomy ... Show morePURPOSE The Groningen International Study on Sentinel nodes in Vulvar cancer (GROINSS-V)-II investigated whether inguinofemoral radiotherapy is a safe alternative to inguinofemoral lymphadenectomy (IFL) in vulvar cancer patients with a metastatic sentinel node (SN).METHODS GROINSS-V-II was a prospective multicenter phase-II single-arm treatment trial, including patients with early-stage vulvar cancer (diameter < 4 cm) without signs of lymph node involvement at imaging, who had primary surgical treatment (local excision with SN biopsy). Where the SN was involved (metastasis of any size), inguinofemoral radiotherapy was given (50 Gy). The primary end point was isolated groin recurrence rate at 24 months. Stopping rules were defined for the occurrence of groin recurrences.RESULTS From December 2005 until October 2016, 1,535 eligible patients were registered. The SN showed metastasis in 322 (21.0%) patients. In June 2010, with 91 SN-positive patients included, the stopping rule was activated because the isolated groin recurrence rate in this group went above our predefined threshold. Among 10 patients with an isolated groin recurrence, nine had SN metastases > 2 mm and/or extracapsular spread. The protocol was amended so that those with SN macrometastases (> 2 mm) underwent standard of care (IFL), whereas patients with SN micrometastases (<= 2 mm) continued to receive inguinofemoral radiotherapy. Among 160 patients with SN micrometastases, 126 received inguinofemoral radiotherapy, with an ipsilateral isolated groin recurrence rate at 2 years of 1.6%. Among 162 patients with SN macrometastases, the isolated groin recurrence rate at 2 years was 22% in those who underwent radiotherapy, and 6.9% in those who underwent IFL (P = .011). Treatment-related morbidity after radiotherapy was less frequent compared with IFL.CONCLUSION Inguinofemoral radiotherapy is a safe alternative for IFL in patients with SN micrometastases, with minimal morbidity. For patients with SN macrometastasis, radiotherapy with a total dose of 50 Gy resulted in more isolated groin recurrences compared with IFL. (C) 2021 by American Society of Clinical Oncology Show less
Objectives: The utilization of liver allografts could be optimized if nonacceptance is predicted. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of an updated Discard Risk Index in... Show moreObjectives: The utilization of liver allografts could be optimized if nonacceptance is predicted. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of an updated Discard Risk Index in Eurotransplant.Materials and Methods: Potential deceased donors from January 2010 to December 2015 who had been reported to Eurotransplant were included in our analyses. Liver utilization was defined by transplant status as the primary outcome to evaluate the performance of the Eurotransplant-developed Discard Risk Index.Results: Of 11 670 potential livers, 9565 (81%) were actually transplanted. Donor sex, age, history of diabetes, drug abuse, use of vasopressors, body mass index category, serum sodium, cause of death, donor type, and levels of C-reactive protein, bilirubin, aspartate and alanine aminotransferases, international normalized ratio, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase were associated with discard and combined in the Eurotransplant-developed Discard Risk Index. Correlation between the two Discard Risk Indexes was high (r = 0.86), and both achieved high C statistics of 0.72 and 0.75 (P <.001), respectively. Despite strong calibration, discard rates of 0.8% for overall donors and 6% of donors after circulatory death could be predicted with 80% accuracy.Conclusions: The Eurotransplant-developed Discard Risk Index showed a high prognostic ability to predict liver utilization in a European setting. The model could therefore be valuable for identifying livers at high risk of not being transplanted in an early stage. These organs might profit the most from modified allocation strategies or advanced preservation techniques. Show less
Plas-Krijgsman, W.G. van der; Giardiello, D.; Putter, H.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Bastiaannet, E.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; ... ; Glas, N.A. de 2021
Background Current prediction tools for breast cancer outcomes are not tailored to the older patient, in whom competing risk strongly influences treatment effects. We aimed to develop and validate... Show moreBackground Current prediction tools for breast cancer outcomes are not tailored to the older patient, in whom competing risk strongly influences treatment effects. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction tool for 5-year recurrence, overall mortality, and other-cause mortality for older patients (aged >= 65 years) with early invasive breast cancer and to estimate individualised expected benefits of adjuvant systemic treatment.Methods We selected surgically treated patients with early invasive breast cancer (stage I-III) aged 65 years or older from the population-based FOCUS cohort in the Netherlands. We developed prediction models for 5-year recurrence, overall mortality, and other-cause mortality using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models. External validation was performed in a Dutch Cancer registry cohort. Performance was evaluated with discrimination accuracy and calibration plots.Findings We included 2744 female patients in the development cohort and 13631 female patients in the validation cohort. Median age was 74.8 years (range 65-98) in the development cohort and 76.0 years (70-101) in the validation cohort. 5-year follow-up was complete for more than 99% of all patients. We observed 343 and 1462 recurrences, and 831 and 3594 deaths, of which 586 and 2565 were without recurrence, in the development and validation cohort, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve at 5 years in the external dataset was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.76) for overall mortality, 0.76 (0.76-0.77) for recurrence, and 0.75 (0.74-0.75) for other-cause mortality.Interpretation The PORTRET tool can accurately predict 5-year recurrence, overall mortality, and other-cause mortality in older patients with breast cancer. The tool can support shared decision making, especially since it provides individualised estimated benefits of adjuvant treatment. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Baart, S.J.; Palen, R.L.F. van der; Putter, H.; Tsonaka, R.; Blom, N.A.; Rizopoulos, D.; Geloven, N. van 2021
BACKGROUND: Most patients with congenital heart disease survive into adulthood; however, residual abnormalities remain and management of the patients is life-long and personalized. Patients with... Show moreBACKGROUND: Most patients with congenital heart disease survive into adulthood; however, residual abnormalities remain and management of the patients is life-long and personalized. Patients with surgical repair of transposition of the great arteries, for example, face the risk to develop neoaortic valve regurgitation. Cardiologists update the prognosis of the patient intuitively with updated information of the cardiovascular status of the patient, for instance from echocardiographic imaging.METHODS: Usually a time-dependent version of the Cox model is used to analyze repeated measurements with a time-to-event outcome. New statistical methods have been developed with multiple advantages, of which the most prominent one being the joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event outcome. In this tutorial, the joint modeling framework is introduced and applied to patients with transposition of the great arteries after surgery with a long-term follow-up, where repeated echocardiographic values of the neoaortic root are evaluated against the risk of neoaortic valve regurgitation.RESULTS: The data are analyzed with the time-dependent Cox model as benchmark method, and the results are compared with a joint model, leading to different conclusions. The flexibility of the joint model is shown by adding the growth rate of the neoaortic root to the model and adding repeated values of body surface area to obtain a multimarker model. Lastly, it is demonstrated how the joint model can be used to obtain personalized dynamic predictions of the event.CONCLUSIONS: The joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event data is an attractive method to analyze data in follow-up studies with repeated measurements. Benefits of the method include using the estimated natural trajectory of the longitudinal outcome, great flexibility through multiple extensions, and dynamic individualized predictions. Show less
Hers, T.M.; Schaik, J. van; Keekstra, N.; Putter, H.; Hamming, J.F.; Vorst, J.R. van der 2021
Objectives: The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the predictive performance of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) risk calculator for aortic aneurysm repair for the patient... Show moreObjectives: The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the predictive performance of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) risk calculator for aortic aneurysm repair for the patient population of a Dutch tertiary referral hospital. Methods: This retrospective study included all patients who underwent elective endovascular or open aortic aneurysm repair at our institution between the years 2013 and 2019. Preoperative patient demographics and postoperative complication data were collected, and individual risk assessments were generated using five different current procedural terminology (CPT) codes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, Brier scores, and Index of Prediction Accuracy (IPA) values were generated to evaluate the predictive performance of the ACS risk calculator in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results: Two hundred thirty-four patients who underwent elective endovascular or open aortic aneurysm repair were identified. Only five out of thirteen risk predictions were found to be sufficiently discriminative. Furthermore, the ACS risk calculator showed a structurally insufficient calibration. Most Brier scores were close to 0; however, comparison to a null model though IPA-scores showed the predictions generated by the ACS risk calculator to be inaccurate. Overall, the ACS risk calculator showed a consistent underestimation of the risk of complications. Conclusions: The ACS risk calculator proved to be inaccurate within the framework of endovascular and open aortic aneurysm repair in our medical center. To minimize the effects of patient selection and cultural differences, multicenter collaboration is necessary to assess the performance of the ACS risk calculator in aortic surgery. Show less
The best current biomarker strategies for predicting response to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy fail to account for interpatient variability in response rates. The histologic tumor... Show moreThe best current biomarker strategies for predicting response to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy fail to account for interpatient variability in response rates. The histologic tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) quantifies intratumoral stromal content and was recently found to be predictive of response to neoadjuvant therapy in multiple cancer types. In the current work, we predicted the likelihood of ICI therapy responsivity of 335 therapy-naive colon adenocarcinoma tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas, using bioinformatics approaches. The TSR was scored on diagnostic tissue slides, and tumor-infiltrating immune cells (TIICs) were inferred from transcriptomic data. Tumors with high stromal content demonstrated increased T regulatory cell infiltration (p = 0.014) but failed to predict ICI therapy response. Consequently, we devised a hybrid tumor microenvironment classification of four stromal categories, based on histological stromal content and transcriptomic-deconvoluted immune cell infiltration, which was associated with previously established transcriptomic and genomic biomarkers for ICI therapy response. By integrating these biomarkers, stroma-low/immune-high tumors were predicted to be most responsive to ICI therapy. The framework described here provides evidence for expansion of current histological TIIC quantification to include the TSR as a novel, easy-to-use biomarker for the prediction of ICI therapy response. Show less
Aim To evaluate the prognostic value of tumor markers in a European cohort of patients with resectable gastric cancer. Methods We performed a post hoc analysis of the CRITICS trial, in which 788... Show moreAim To evaluate the prognostic value of tumor markers in a European cohort of patients with resectable gastric cancer. Methods We performed a post hoc analysis of the CRITICS trial, in which 788 patients received perioperative therapy. Association between survival and pretreatment CEA, CA 19-9, alkaline phosphatase, neutrophils, hemoglobin and lactate dehydrogenase were explored in uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Likelihoods to receive potentially curative surgery were investigated for patients without elevated tumor markers versus one of the tumor markers elevated versus both tumor markers elevated. The association between tumor markers and the presence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) was explored in 50 patients with available ctDNA data. Results In multivariable analysis, in which we corrected for allocated treatment and other baseline characteristics, elevated pretreatment CEA (HR 1.43; 95% CI 1.11-1.85, p < 0.001) and CA 19-9 (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.42-2.25, p < 0.001) were associated with worse OS. Likelihoods to receive potentially curative surgery were 86%, 77% and 60% for patients without elevated tumor marker versus either elevated CEA or CA 19-9 versus both elevated, respectively (p < 0.001). Although both preoperative presence of ctDNA and tumor markers were prognostic for survival, no association was found between these two parameters. Conclusion CEA and CA 19-9 were independent prognostic factors for survival in a large cohort of European patients with resectable gastric cancer. No relationship was found between tumor markers and ctDNA. These factors could potentially guide treatment choices and should be included in future trials to determine their definitive position. Show less
Background Long-term use of statins is associated with a small reduced risk of colorectal cancer but their mechanism of action is not well understood. While they are generally believed to act on... Show moreBackground Long-term use of statins is associated with a small reduced risk of colorectal cancer but their mechanism of action is not well understood. While they are generally believed to act on KRAS, we have previously proposed that they act via influencing the BMP pathway. The objective of this study was to look for associations between statin use and the risk of developing colorectal cancer of a particular molecular subtype. Methods By linking two registries unique to the Netherlands, 69,272 statin users and 94,753 controls were identified and, if they developed colorectal cancer, their specimens traced. Colorectal cancers were molecularly subtyped according to the expression of SMAD4 and the mutation status of KRAS and BRAF. Results Statin use was associated with a reduction in the risk of developing colorectal cancer regardless of molecular subtype (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.66-0.89) and a larger reduction in the risk of developing SMAD4-positive colorectal cancer (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.42-0.82). There was no relationship between statin use and the risk of developing colorectal cancer with a mutation in KRAS and/or BRAF. Conclusions Statin use is associated with a reduced risk of developing colorectal cancer with intact SMAD4 expression. Show less
Cancer diagnosis and treatment may influence reproductive planning and impact fertility in patients of reproductive age. Although guidelines have been established in the past decade, education,... Show moreCancer diagnosis and treatment may influence reproductive planning and impact fertility in patients of reproductive age. Although guidelines have been established in the past decade, education, practice, and attitudes of medical oncologists regarding fertility preservation remain undecided. A nationwide survey was performed among members of the Dutch Society for Medical Oncology. Demographics, practice, knowledge, and barriers were measured regarding information provision of fertility preservation towards cancer patients of childbearing age. From 392 members, 120 oncologists completed the questionnaire (30.6%). Majority of oncologists was convinced it is their responsibility to discuss impact of cancer treatment to fertility (93.2%), yet 68.3% discussed the subject often or always (n = 82). Oncologists employed in district general hospitals were less likely to discuss fertility (p = 0.033). On average, 44.6% of reproductive men and 28.9% of reproductive women is referred to fertility specialists. Half of the respondents declared to possess sufficient knowledge regarding fertility preservation (n = 57, 47.5%). Poor prognosis (53%), unlikely survival (43.1%), and high chances on fertility recovery (28.7%) were identified as barriers to discussing fertility preservation. Among oncologists, impact of cancer treatment on fertility is a well-accepted responsibility to counsel. Despite, self-reported knowledge regarding fertility preservation is strongly varying. In practice, fertility is discussed to some extent, influenced by several barriers and depending on prognosis and type of hospital. Patients benefit from knowledge improvement among oncology care providers concerning fertility effects of cancer treatment. Education during medical school, residency, and among practicing oncologists may raise awareness, together with enhancement of referral possibilities. Show less
Multi-state models are increasingly being used to model complex epidemiological and clinical outcomes over time. It is common to assume that the models are Markov, but the assumption can often be... Show moreMulti-state models are increasingly being used to model complex epidemiological and clinical outcomes over time. It is common to assume that the models are Markov, but the assumption can often be unrealistic. The Markov assumption is seldomly checked and violations can lead to biased estimation of many parameters of interest. This is a well known problem for the standard Aalen-Johansen estimator of transition probabilities and several alternative estimators, not relying on the Markov assumption, have been suggested. A particularly simple approach known as landmarking have resulted in the Landmark-Aalen-Johansen estimator. Since landmarking is a stratification method a disadvantage of landmarking is data reduction, leading to a loss of power. This is problematic for "less traveled" transitions, and undesirable when such transitions indeed exhibit Markov behaviour. Introducing the concept of partially non-Markov multi-state models, we suggest a hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities. We also show how non-Markov transitions can be identified using a testing procedure. The proposed estimator is a compromise between regular Aalen-Johansen and landmark estimation, using transition specific landmarking, and can drastically improve statistical power. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent, but that the traditional variance estimator can underestimate the variance of both the hybrid and landmark estimator. Bootstrapping is therefore recommended. The methods are compared in a simulation study and in a real data application using registry data to model individual transitions for a birth cohort of 184 951 Norwegian men between states of sick leave, disability, education, work and unemployment. Show less
Voorham, J.; Vaganee, D.; Voorham-van der Zalm, P.; Nijeholt, G.L.A.; Putter, H.; Wachter, S. de 2021
Objectives To evaluate if electrodiagnostic tools can advance the understanding in the effect of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) on pelvic floor activity, more specifically if SNM induces changes in... Show moreObjectives To evaluate if electrodiagnostic tools can advance the understanding in the effect of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) on pelvic floor activity, more specifically if SNM induces changes in pelvic floor muscle (PFM) contraction. Materials and Methods Single tertiary center, prospective study (October 2017-May 2018) including patients with overactive bladder syndrome undergoing SNM. Electromyography of the PFM was recorded using the Multiple Array Probe Leiden. The procedure consisted of consecutive stimulations of the lead electrodes with increasing intensity (1-3, 5, 7, 10 V). Recordings were made after electrode placement (T0) and three weeks of SNM (T1). Patients with >50% improvement were defined as responders, others as nonresponders. For the analyses, the highest electrical PFM response (EPFMR), defined as the peak-to-peak amplitude of the muscle response, was identified for each intensity. The sensitivity (intensity where the first EPFMR was registered and the normalized EPFMR as percentage of maximum EPFMR) and the evolution (EMFPR changes over time) were analyzed using linear mixed models. Results Fourteen patients were analyzed (nine responders, five nonresponders). For nonresponders, the PFM was significantly less sensitive to stimulation after three weeks (T0: 1.7 V, T1: 2.6 V). The normalized EPFMR was (significantly) lower after three weeks for the ipsilateral side of the PFM for the clinically relevant voltages (1 V: 36%-23%; p = 0.024, 2 V: 56%-29%; p = 0.00001; 3 V: 63%-37%; p = 0.0002). For the nonresponders, the mean EPFMR was significantly lower at 8/12 locations at T1 (T0: 109 mu V, T1: 58 mu V; mean p = 0.013, range <0.0001-0.0867). For responders, the sensitivity and evolution did not change significantly. Conclusions This is the first study to describe in detail the neurophysiological characteristics of the PFM, and the changes over time upon sacral spinal root stimulation, in responders and nonresponders to SNM. More research is needed to investigate the full potential of EPFMR as a response indicator. Show less
The tumour-stroma ratio (TSR) and tumour budding (TB) are two high-risk factors with potential to be implemented in the next TNM classification. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the... Show moreThe tumour-stroma ratio (TSR) and tumour budding (TB) are two high-risk factors with potential to be implemented in the next TNM classification. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the practical application of the two biomarkers based on reproducibility, independency and prognostic value. Patients diagnosed with stage II or III colon cancer who underwent surgery between 2005 and 2016 were included. Both TSR and TB were scored on haematoxylin and eosin-stained tissue sections. The TSR, based on the relative amount of stroma, was scored in increments of 10%. TB was scored following the consensus guidelines; a bud was defined as <= 4 tumour cells. For analysis, three categories were used. Cohen's kappa was used for reproducibility. The prognostic value was determined with survival analysis. In total, 246 patients were included. The TSR distribution was N = 137 (56%) stroma-low and N = 109 (44%) stroma-high. The TB distribution was TB-low N = 194 (79%), TB-intermediate N = 35 (14%) and TB-high N = 17 (7%). The reproducibility of the TSR was good (interobserver agreement kappa = 0.83 and intraobserver agreement kappa = 0.82), whereas the inter- and intraobserver agreement for scoring TB was moderate (kappa 0.47 and 0.45, respectively). The survival analysis showed an independent prognostic value for disease-free survival for TSR (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.01-2.44; p = 0.048) and for TB-high (HR 2.01; 95% CI 1.02-3.96; p = 0.043). Based on current results, we suggest the TSR is a more reliable parameter in daily practice due to better reproducibility and independent prognostic value for disease-free survival. Show less
Groen, J.V.; Manen, L. van; Roessel, S. van; Dam, J.L. van; Bonsing, B.A.; Doukas, M.; ... ; Mieog, J.S.D. 2021
Objectives The portal vein (PV)-superior mesenteric vein (SMV) margin is the most affected margin in pancreatic cancer. This study investigates the association between venous resection, tumor... Show moreObjectives The portal vein (PV)-superior mesenteric vein (SMV) margin is the most affected margin in pancreatic cancer. This study investigates the association between venous resection, tumor invasion in the resected PV-SMV, recurrence patterns, and overall survival (OS). Methods This multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer (2010-2017). In addition, a systematic literature search was performed. Results In total, 531 patients were included, of which 149 (28%) underwent venous resection of whom 53% had tumor invasion in the resected PV-SMV. Patients with venous resection had a significant higher rate of R1 margins (69% vs 37%) and had more often multiple R1 margins (43% vs 16%). Patient with venous resection had a significant shorter time to locoregional recurrence and a shorter OS (15 vs 19 months). At multivariable analyses, venous resection and tumor invasion in the resected PV-SMV were not predictive for time to recurrence and OS. The literature overview showed that pathological assessment of the resected PV-SMV is not adequately standardized. Conclusions Only half of patients with venous resection had pathology confirmed tumor invasion in the resected PV-SMV, and both are not independently associated with time to recurrence and OS. The pathological assessment of the resected PV-SMV needs to be standardized. Show less
Liver function is measured regularly in liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Currently, these previous disease development data are not used for survival prediction. By constructing and... Show moreLiver function is measured regularly in liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Currently, these previous disease development data are not used for survival prediction. By constructing and validating joint models (JMs), we aimed to predict the outcome based on all available data, using both disease severity and its rate of change over time. Adult LT candidates listed in Eurotransplant between 2007 and 2018 (n = 16 283) and UNOS between 2016 and 2019 (n = 30 533) were included. Patients with acute liver failure, exception points, or priority status were excluded. Longitudinal MELD(-Na) data were modeled using spline-based mixed effects. Waiting list survival was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models. The JMs combined the longitudinal and survival analysis. JM 90-day mortality prediction performance was compared to MELD(-Na) in the validation cohorts. MELD(-Na) score and its rate of change over time significantly influenced patient survival. The JMs significantly outperformed the MELD(-Na) score at baseline and during follow-up. At baseline, MELD-JM AUC and MELD AUC were 0.94 (0.92-0.95) and 0.87 (0.85-0.89), respectively. MELDNa-JM AUC was 0.91 (0.89-0.93) and MELD-Na AUC was 0.84 (0.81-0.87). The JMs were significantly (p < .001) more accurate than MELD(-Na). After 90 days, we ranked patients for LT based on their MELD-Na and MELDNa-JM survival rates, showing that MELDNa-JM-prioritized patients had three times higher waiting list mortality. Show less
The main challenge of immunosuppressive therapy after solid organ transplantation is to create a new immunological balance that prevents organ rejection and does not promote opportunistic infection... Show moreThe main challenge of immunosuppressive therapy after solid organ transplantation is to create a new immunological balance that prevents organ rejection and does not promote opportunistic infection. Torque teno virus (TTV), a ubiquitous and non-pathogenic single-stranded DNA virus, has been proposed as a marker of functional immunity in immunocompromised patients. Here we investigate whether TTV loads predict the risk of common viral infection and allograft rejection in kidney transplantation recipients.In a retrospective cohort of 389 kidney transplantation recipients, individual TTV loads in were measured by qPCR in consecutive plasma samples during one year follow-up. The endpoints were allograft rejection, BK polyomavirus (BKPyV) viremia and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia. Repeated TTV measurements and rejection and infection survival data were analysed in a joint model.During follow-up, TTV DNA detection in the transplant recipients increased from 85 to 100%. The median viral load increased to 107 genome copies/ml within three months after transplantation. Rejection, BKPyV viremia and CMV viremia occurred in 23%, 27% and 17% of the patients, respectively. With every 10-fold TTV load-increase, the risk of rejection decreased considerably (HR: 0.74, CI 95%: 0.71-0.76), while the risk of BKPyV and CMV viremia remained the same (HR: 1.03, CI 95%: 1.03-1.04 and HR: 1.01, CI 95%: 1.01-1.01).In conclusion, TTV load kinetics predict allograft rejection in kidney transplantation recipients, but not the BKPyV and CMV infection. The potential use of TTV load levels as a guide for optimal immunosuppressive drug dosage to prevent allograft rejection deserves further validation. Show less
Biewenga, M.; Verhelst, X.P.D.M.J.; Baven-Pronk, M.A.M.C.; Putter, H.; Berg, A.P. van den; Nieuwkerk, K.C.M.J. van; ... ; Dutch Autoimmune Hepatitis Study G 2021
Background No prognostic score is currently available for long-term survival in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate such a prognostic... Show moreBackground No prognostic score is currently available for long-term survival in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate such a prognostic score for AIH patients at diagnosis. Methods The prognostic score was developed using uni- & multivariate Cox regression in a 4-center Dutch cohort and validated in an independent 6-center Belgian cohort. Results In the derivation cohort of 396 patients 19 liver transplantations (LTs) and 51 deaths occurred (median follow-up 118 months; interquartile range 60-202 months). In multivariate analysis age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.045; p < 0.001), non-caucasian ethnicity (HR 1.897; p = 0.045), cirrhosis (HR 3.266; p < 0.001) and alanine aminotransferase level (HR 0.725; p = 0.003) were significant independent predictors for mortality or LT (C-statistic 0.827; 95% CI 0.790-0.864). In the validation cohort of 408 patients death or LT occurred in 78 patients during a median follow-up of 74 months (interquartile range: 25-142 months). Predicted 5-year event rate did not differ from observed event rate (high risk group 21.5% vs. 15.7% (95% CI: 6.3%-24.2%); moderate risk group 5.8% versus 4.3% (95% CI: 0.0%-9.1%); low risk group 1.9% versus 5.4% (95% CI: 0.0%-11.4%); C-statistic 0.744 [95% CI 0.644-0.844]). Conclusions A Dutch-Belgian prognostic score for long-term transplant-free survival in AIH patients at diagnosis was developed and validated. Show less
Hagenaars, S.C.; Groot, S. de; Cohen, D.; Dekker, T.J.A.; Charehbili, A.; Kranenbarg, E.M.K.; ... ; Dutch Breast Can 2021
The tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) has proven to be a strong prognostic factor in breast cancer, demonstrating better survival for patients with stroma-low tumors. Since the role of the TSR as a... Show moreThe tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) has proven to be a strong prognostic factor in breast cancer, demonstrating better survival for patients with stroma-low tumors. Since the role of the TSR as a predictive marker for neoadjuvant chemotherapy outcome is yet unknown, this association was evaluated for HER2-negative breast cancer in the prospective DIRECT and NEOZOTAC trials. The TSR was assessed on 375 hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections of pre-treatment biopsies. Associations between the TSR and chemotherapy response according to the Miller-Payne (MP) grading system, and between the TSR and pathological response were examined using Pearson's chi-square, Cochran-Armitage test for trend and regression analyses. A stroma-low tumor prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy was significantly associated with a higher MP score (P = .005). This relationship remained significant in the estrogen receptor (ER)-negative subgroup (P = .047). The univariable odds ratio (OR) of a stroma-low tumor on pathological complete response (pCR) was 2.46 (95% CI 1.34-4.51, P = .004), which attenuated to 1.90 (95% CI 0.85-4.25, P = .119) after adjustment for relevant prognostic factors. Subgroup analyses revealed an OR of 5.91 in univariable analyses for ER-negativity (95% CI 1.19-29.48, P = .030) and 1.48 for ER-positivity (95% CI 0.73-3.01, P = .281). In conclusion, a low amount of stroma on pre-treatment biopsies is associated with a higher MP score and pCR rate. Therefore, the TSR is a promising biomarker in predicting neoadjuvant treatment outcome. Incorporating this parameter in routine pathological diagnostics could be worthwhile to prevent overtreatment and undertreatment. Show less
When analysing and presenting results of randomised clinical trials, trialists rarely report if or how underlying statistical assumptions were validated. To avoid data-driven biased trial results,... Show moreWhen analysing and presenting results of randomised clinical trials, trialists rarely report if or how underlying statistical assumptions were validated. To avoid data-driven biased trial results, it should be common practice to prospectively describe the assessments of underlying assumptions. In existing literature, there is no consensus on how trialists should assess and report underlying assumptions for the analyses of randomised clinical trials. With this study, we developed suggestions on how to test and validate underlying assumptions behind logistic regression, linear regression, and Cox regression when analysing results of randomised clinical trials.Two investigators compiled an initial draftbased on a review of the literature. Experienced statisticians and trialists from eight different research centres and trial units then participated in a anonymised consensus process, where we reached agreement on the suggestions presented in this paper.This paper provides detailed suggestions on 1) which underlying statistical assumptions behind logistic regression, multiple linear regression and Cox regression each should be assessed; 2) how these underlying assumptions may be assessed; and 3) what to do if these assumptions are violated.We believe that the validity of randomised clinical trial results will increase if our recommendations for assessing and dealing with violations of the underlying statistical assumptions are followed. Show less
Sijp, M.P.L. van der; Eijk, M. van; Niggebrugge, A.H.P.; Putter, H.; Blauw, G.J.; Achterberg, W.P. 2021
Objectives: This study investigates the transitions of community-dwelling patients with a proximal femoral fracture towards recovery of independence using multistate modeling. The prognostic value... Show moreObjectives: This study investigates the transitions of community-dwelling patients with a proximal femoral fracture towards recovery of independence using multistate modeling. The prognostic value of factors affecting the short-term rate of recovery of independence in activities of daily living was assessed for the resilient portion of the population. Design: An inception cohort was recruited between 2016 and 2019. Setting and Participants: Only community-dwelling older patients admitted with a proximal femoral fracture were included. Measures: Follow-up was performed at 6 weeks and 3 months, when the patients' living situation and level of independence were recorded. Multistate modeling was used to study the transition rates of the population through prespecified states of the recovery process. Using this model, prognostic factors for the recovery of independence were identified for resilient patients (defined as those patients who managed to return home at any point in the follow-up after discharge). Results: A total of 558 patients were included, and 218 (40.9%) recovered to prefracture levels of independence. Of the resilient patients, 20.7% were discharged home directly, and 79.3% via a rehabilitation home. In this patient group, a more favorable American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, better prefracture mobility, and the absence of a prefracture fear of falling were statistically significantly associated with a successful recovery. A low level of prefracture independence was inversely associated, meaning that patients with a low level of prefracture independence had a higher chance of successful recovery. Conclusions and Implications: This study identified 4 factors with an independent prognostic value for the recovery of independence in resilient patients after a proximal femoral fracture. These factors could be used to construct clinical profiles that contribute to the assessment of the patient's post-acute care needs and recovery capacity. In addition, multistate modeling has been shown to be an effective and versatile tool in the study of recovery prognostics. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of AMDA - The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Show less