Sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) have emerged as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to their promising performance in terms of battery cycle lifetime, safety, operating in wider... Show moreSodium-ion batteries (SIBs) have emerged as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to their promising performance in terms of battery cycle lifetime, safety, operating in wider temperature range, as well as the abundant and low-cost of sodium resources. This study evaluated the climate impacts of three SIBs, and compared to two LIBs under four scenarios with considering potential changes in battery performance and background productions between 2020 and 2050. To ensure a fair comparison, all batteries were modeled in the 21,700 form, and a battery dimensioning model was developed to calculate the required amount of components for each battery. We found that equal to lower GHG emissions result from the use of SIBs compared to LIBs under optimal performance scenarios. From 2020 to 2050, the climate impacts of SIBs decreased by 43–57 %. The relative contribution of the battery manufacturing process decreases from 18–32 % to 2–4 % due to the increasingly share of clean energy in the electricity grid, while the relative contribution of key battery component materials increases over time, especially for cathode active materials. These results emphasize the significance of decarbonizing the electric grid, and suggest that future investment in SIBs is promising from an environmental point of view. Show less
Arvidsson, R.; Svanström, M.; Sandén, B.A.; Thonemann, N.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Cucurachi, S. 2023
PurposeSome future-oriented life cycle assessment (LCA) terms, particularly prospective and ex-ante, show notable increase in use in publications over the last decade. However, scholars have... Show morePurposeSome future-oriented life cycle assessment (LCA) terms, particularly prospective and ex-ante, show notable increase in use in publications over the last decade. However, scholars have pointed out that it is currently unclear exactly what these terms mean and how they are related. This paper aims to explain defining differences between future-oriented LCA terms and provide terminology recommendations.MethodsExisting definitions of future-oriented LCA terms were reviewed and analyzed. Workshops were held where defining differences of future-oriented LCA terms were discussed.ResultsTemporal positionality and technology maturity appear to be two critical aspects of future-oriented LCA. Prospective and ex-ante LCA are similar, with the possible difference that ex-ante LCA always involves an increase in technology maturity in the future. Considering the notable similarities, it seems reasonable to converge terms to mitigate field fragmentation and avoid terminology confusion.ConclusionsTo denote LCA studies with a future temporal positionality, we recommend using the term prospective LCA, defined as “LCA that models the product system at a future point in time relative to the time at which the study is conducted”. Furthermore, since technology maturity is clearly a critical aspect for prospective LCA, we recommend prospective LCA studies to clearly define the maturity of the technologies modeled in the production system. Show less
Steubing, B.R.P.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Sacchi, R. 2023
Major technological transitions are necessary to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change and other environmental damage (IPCC 2021). However, many of the technologies needed to... Show moreMajor technological transitions are necessary to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change and other environmental damage (IPCC 2021). However, many of the technologies needed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 are still in the early stages of development (IEA 2021a). The implementation of these technologies is expected to occur once they are mature enough to enter the market. Some technologies will require significant capital and time to develop. Therefore, a good understanding of these technologies’ potential environmental impacts and guidance to minimize these impacts before such investments are made are crucial to meet environmental targets.Prospective LCA (pLCA, similar terms are ex-ante and anticipatory LCA) assesses the potential environmental impacts of products and services of future technologies and guides their development (van der Giesen et al. 2020). Assessing the environmental impacts of future technologies often requires placing the temporal scope of the analysis in the mid- to long-term future, when the global economy, society, and environment will differ from today (Moss et al. 2010; Riahi et al. 2017; van Vuuren et al. 2011). It has been widely acknowledged that it is crucial to avoid a temporal mismatch between the foreground system (i.e., the technology under study) and the background system (i.e., the economic system the technology operates in) to support sustainable technology design and policymaking (Arvidsson et al. 2018; Buyle et al. 2019; Joyce and Björklund 2021; Knobloch et al. 2020; Thonemann et al. 2020; van der Giesen et al. 2020; Vandepaer et al. 2020).Although LCA practitioners can typically obtain information on the development of the foreground system from technology developers, capturing systemic changes in the background is more complicated. Therefore, prospective life cycle inventory (pLCI) databases were developed: for example, within the NEEDS project (NEEDS 2009), the THEMIS model (Gibon et al. 2015; Hertwich et al. 2015), and more recently, in the work that led to the premise framework (Cox et al. 2020; Mendoza Beltran et al. 2018; Sacchi et al. 2022). These pLCI databases were derived from a combination of the ecoinvent database (Wernet et al. 2016) and exogenous scenario data to represent future technology and supply chains in specific sectors. Scenario data sources have included energy system models, input–output models, macro-economic models, integrated assessment models (IAMs), scientific literature, and expert judgment, depending on the availability of data for different technologies, economic sectors, and world regions.Despite the importance of considering future scenarios for key economic sectors in pLCAs, and despite a recent increase in the use of pLCI databases in the academic literature (see Appendix), the use of pLCI databases remains the exception rather than the rule in future-oriented LCAs. This situation involves several issues relating to how pLCI databases are being generated, shared, and used. For example, pLCI databases remain difficult to obtain and use in standard LCA software. Furthermore, guidance for practitioners regarding content and the appropriate usage of pLCI databases is scarce. Also, the technological, sectoral, regional, and environmental coverage remains limited. Finally, a broader discussion to reach a consensus on the models and data sources pLCI databases should be based on has not yet occurred. Recent literature has discussed some of these issues. For example, Adrianto et al. (2021) highlight the need to streamline the process of including future background scenarios in pLCA. Bisinella et al. (2021) also stress the need for improved guidance when using future scenarios. Therefore, these issues need to be addressed to foster the more widespread use of pLCI databases.To support these efforts, we provide an overview of the generation, sharing, and use of pLCI databases in this paper. We then discuss the conditions for a broad application of pLCI databases with the ultimate aim of improving environmental guidance for future technologies. Finally, we prioritize the challenges to be addressed to enable the widespread use of pLCI databases within pLCA. Show less
Various measures can be employed to decarbonise cement production, including clinker substitution, alternative fuels, kiln improvements, and carbon capture and storage. In this study, we quantify... Show moreVarious measures can be employed to decarbonise cement production, including clinker substitution, alternative fuels, kiln improvements, and carbon capture and storage. In this study, we quantify the CO2-eq. emissions mitigation potentials of these measures on typical cement production in Europe until 2050 using prospective life cycle assessment, including the influence of possible futures of socioeconomic development. We combined environmental product declaration data for cement production with a modified life cycle inventory database (based on ecoinvent v.3.6) that incorporates scenarios developed using the IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) integrated assessment model (IAM). The IAM translates socio-economic factors into environmental data that follow Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (e.g., SSP2) to consistently describe possible futures of socio-economic development and environmental change beyond cement production, i.e., the ‘background effects’. The results show that in 2050, cement can be produced with significant CO2-eq. emissions reductions using clinker substitution (42%), alternative fuels (25%), or improved kiln efficiency (12%) relative to 2020. When combined, these measures could reduce CO2-eq. emissions of cement production by ∼58% (excluding carbon capture and storage) and ∼88% (including carbon capture and storage) by 2050 relative to year 2020, which could lower CO2-eq. emissions to as low as 0.09 kg per kg cement by 2050. The effect of using future decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity mix on the results is an additional ∼10% reduction in CO2 -eq. emissions by 2050. Multiple credible pathways exist for the cement sector to achieve and surpass CO2-eq. emissions reductions consistent with global climate targets. Show less
Langkau, S.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Mutel, C.; Ajie Permana, M.; Erdmann, L.; Voglhuber-Slavinsky, A.; Janssen, M. 2023
PurposeIn prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA), inventory models represent a future state of a production system and therefore contain assumptions about future developments. Scientific quality... Show morePurposeIn prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA), inventory models represent a future state of a production system and therefore contain assumptions about future developments. Scientific quality should be ensured by using foresight methods for handling these future assumptions during inventory modelling. We present a stepwise approach for integrating future scenario development into inventory modelling for pLCA studies.MethodsA transdisciplinary research method was used to develop the SIMPL approach for scenario-based inventory modelling for pLCA. Our interdisciplinary team of LCA and future scenario experts developed a first draft of the approach. Afterwards, 112 LCA practitioners tested the approach on prospective case studies in group work projects in three courses on pLCA. Lessons learned from application difficulties, misunderstandings and feedback were used to adapt the approach after each course. After the third course, reflection, discussion and in-depth application to case studies were used to solve the remaining problems of the approach. Ongoing courses and this article are intended to bring the approach into a broader application.Results and discussionThe SIMPL approach comprises adaptations and additions to the LCA goal and scope phase necessary for prospective inventory modelling, particularly the prospective definition of scope items in reference to a time horizon. Moreover, three iterative steps for combined inventory modelling and scenario development are incorporated into the inventory phase. Step A covers the identification of relevant inventory parameters and key factors, as well as their interrelations. In step B, future assumptions are made, by either adopting them from existing scenarios or deriving them from the available information, in particular by integrating expert and stakeholder knowledge. Step C addresses the combination of assumptions into consistent scenarios using cross-consistency assessment and distinctness-based selection. Several iterations of steps A–C deliver the final inventory models.ConclusionThe presented approach enables pLCA practitioners to systematically integrate future scenario development into inventory modelling. It helps organize possible future developments of a technology, product or service system, also with regard to future developments in the social, economic and technical environment of the technology. Its application helps to overcome implicit bias and ensures that the resulting assessments are consistent, transparently documented and useful for drawing practically relevant conclusions. The approach is also readily applicable by LCA practitioners and covers all steps of prospective inventory modelling. Show less
Large-scale offshore wind energy developments represent a major player in the energy transition but are likely to have (negative or positive) impacts on marine biodiversity. Wind turbine... Show moreLarge-scale offshore wind energy developments represent a major player in the energy transition but are likely to have (negative or positive) impacts on marine biodiversity. Wind turbine foundations and sour protection often replace soft sediment with hard substrates, creating artificial reefs for sessile dwellers. Offshore wind farm (OWF) furthermore leads to a decrease in (and even a cessation of) bottom trawling, as this activity is prohibited in many OWFs. The long-term cumulative impacts of these changes on marine biodiversity remain largely unknown. This study integrates such impacts into characterization factors for life cycle assessment based on the North Sea and illustrates its application. Our results suggest that there are no net adverse impacts during OWF operation on benthic communities inhabiting the original sand bottom within OWFs. Artificial reefs could lead to a doubling of species richness and a two-order-of-magnitude increase of species abundance. Seabed occupation will also incur in minor biodiversity losses in the soft sediment. Our results were not conclusive concerning the trawling avoidance benefits. The developed characterization factors quantifying biodiversity-related impacts from OWF operation provide a stepping stone toward a better representation of biodiversity in life cycle assessment. Show less
The life cycle assessment framework was adapted to the territorial level (the “territorial LCA”) to assess the environmental impacts and services of land-use planning scenarios. Given the various... Show moreThe life cycle assessment framework was adapted to the territorial level (the “territorial LCA”) to assess the environmental impacts and services of land-use planning scenarios. Given the various geographical conditions of the territory, the potential alternatives of land-use scenarios could be enormous. To prevent the iterative process of proposing and comparing alternative scenarios, this work aims to move one step further to automatically generate optimal planning scenarios by linking the novel territorial LCA with multi-objective optimization (MOO). A fuzzy optimization approach is adopted to deal with the trade-offs among objectives and to generate optimized scenarios, minimizing the environmental damages and maximizing the satisfaction level of the desired land-use functions subjected to constraints such as area availability and demand. Geographical Information System (GIS) is employed to manipulate geographic datasets for spatial assessment. An illustrative case study tests the novel integrated method (the territorial LCA, MOO, and GIS) on its ability to propose optimal land-use planning for bioenergy production in a region in Belgium. The study results reveal the competition of land uses for different energy products, the trade-offs among impact categories, and potential impacts on other territories if implementing optimal land planning for the territory under study. The optimization outcomes can help decision-making on the optimal locations for different crop types (i.e., miscanthus, willow, and maize in the case study) and utilizations (i.e., electricity, heat, biogas, and bioethanol in this study) complying with the objectives and constraints. This integrated tool holds the potential to assist policymakers when deciding on how to use the territory facing the global context of increasing demands for multiple uses of bio-based products, such as for food, feed, fuel, fiber, and chemicals. Limitations of the current method and its potential for real-world applications are discussed, such as expanding the scope to include life cycle sustainability assessment and taking farmers’ behavior and crop rotation into account. Show less
The energy transition will require a rapid deployment of renewable energy (RE) and electric vehicles (EVs) where other transit modes are unavailable. EV batteries could complement RE generation by... Show moreThe energy transition will require a rapid deployment of renewable energy (RE) and electric vehicles (EVs) where other transit modes are unavailable. EV batteries could complement RE generation by providing short-term grid services. However, estimating the market opportunity requires an understanding of many socio-technical parameters and constraints. We quantify the global EV battery capacity available for grid storage using an integrated model incorporating future EV battery deployment, battery degradation, and market participation. We include both in-use and end-of-vehicle-life use phases and find a technical capacity of 32–62 terawatt-hours by 2050. Low participation rates of 12%–43% are needed to provide short-term grid storage demand globally. Participation rates fall below 10% if half of EV batteries at end-of-vehicle-life are used as stationary storage. Short-term grid storage demand could be met as early as 2030 across most regions. Our estimates are generally conservative and offer a lower bound of future opportunities. Show less
Saavedra del Oso, M.; Mauricio-Iglesias, M.; Hospido, A.; Steubing, B.R.P. 2023
Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) production from waste streams using mixed microbial cultures (MMC) can unlock the potential of PHA to substitute oil-based plastics. However, these processes are still... Show morePolyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) production from waste streams using mixed microbial cultures (MMC) can unlock the potential of PHA to substitute oil-based plastics. However, these processes are still at low technology readiness level (4–6). Demonstrating a better environmental performance would boost their deployment at industrial scale. Hence, including environmental guidance during their development, when there are still opportunities for major alterations, is essential. To the best of our knowledge, this work elucidates for the first time how waste-to-PHA biorefineries could develop in the future by combining prospective LCA with scenario methodology and where the attention of stakeholders should be focused. Four future scenarios were derived considering both surrounding (e.g., scale, environmental or bioeconomy policies) and technological parameters (e.g., acidification yield, PHA content in biomass or recovery yield). Those scenarios derived under ambitious environmental and bioeconomy policies shop up to 50% lower environmental impacts than those under business- as-usual policies. These differences are caused by the different background processes’ environmental burdens (e. g., electricity mix with low renewable energies share) and the higher consumption of chemicals and utilities. However, the environmental impacts caused by lower yields can be partially mitigated by valorizing the intermediate waste streams into biogas. Sensitivity analysis results pointed out recovery yield and PHA content as the parameters that influence most the environmental performance, being responsible for up to 60% of variance in environmental performance. These parameters determine the chemicals and utilities consumption in PHA downstream processing, which is confirmed as the main environmental hotspot. This work goes beyond previous LCA studies on PHA production and quantifies the influence of different parameters on the environmental performance. Show less
Metals have an important role in the global economy. With the energy transition, the demand for many metals is expected to sharply increase in the future. Although many studies apply prospective... Show moreMetals have an important role in the global economy. With the energy transition, the demand for many metals is expected to sharply increase in the future. Although many studies apply prospective LCA to assess future environmental impacts of metal supply, the methods have not yet converged to a common approach. This study aims to provide an overview of these studies and their approaches, following 2 research questions: 1. Which metals have been addressed by previous prospective LCA studies and what are their expected future supply impacts according to the identified studies? 2. What are the studied parameters of the metal supply chains, the applied scenario modelling approaches, and data sources used? We performed a systematic literature review to identify studies which assess future environmental impacts due to the supply of metals. This includes publications about absolute impacts of global metal demand, but also relative impacts assessed by comparative LCAs of emerging technologies. For these studies, we analysed both the results and the methods to integrate prospective elements in the LCA models focussing on the choice of parameters, background scenarios, data sources and modelling approaches. The literature review yielded 40 papers. We found that the majority of publications investigate bulk metals like Cu, Fe and Al. Most studies investigate relative impacts (i.e. per kg metal produced). Fewer studies also address absolute impacts of the total future demand; however, these mostly agree that absolute environmental impacts associated with global metal demand are likely to increase. Moreover, the results show that the majority of studies assess CO2 emissions, while other impacts are less often investigated. Furthermore, we found that the parameters considered most frequently are future ore grades, recycling shares, and energy efficiency. Background scenarios were primarily energy scenarios, which were most often electricity scenarios from the integrated assessment model IMAGE. Background scenarios modelling other developments are less common. Overall, the review reveals a wide variety of parameter choices, scenario modelling approaches and data sources. This study stresses the necessity to reduce environmental impacts of metal supply. Moreover, it highlights the need for guidelines for prospective LCA as well as for the documentation of modelling choices, LCI and scenario data to facilitate transparency and sharing of LCA scenarios in the community. Show less
Xu, C.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Hu, M.; Harpprecht, C.I.; Meide, M.T. van der; Tukker, A. 2022
Offshore wind energy (OWE) is a cornerstone of future clean energy development. Yet, research into global OWE material demand has generally been limited to few materials and/or low technological... Show moreOffshore wind energy (OWE) is a cornerstone of future clean energy development. Yet, research into global OWE material demand has generally been limited to few materials and/or low technological resolution. In this study, we assess the primary raw material demand and secondary material supply of global OWE. It includes a wide assortment of materials, including bulk materials, rare earth elements, key metals, and other materials for manufacturing offshore wind turbines and foundations. Our OWE development scenarios consider important drivers such as growing wind turbine size, introducing new technologies, moving further to deep waters, and wind turbine lifetime extension. We show that the exploitation of OWE will require large quantities of raw materials from 2020 to 2040: 129-235 million tonnes (Mt) of steel, 8.2-14.6 Mt of iron, 3.8-25.9 Mt of concrete, 0.5-1.0 Mt of copper and 0.3-0.5 Mt of aluminium. Substantial amounts of rare earth elements will be required towards 2040, with up to 16, 13, 31 and 20 fold expansions in the current Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy), Praseodymium (Pr) and Terbium (Tb) demand, respectively. Closed-loop recycling of end-of-life wind turbines could supply a maximum 3% and 12% of total material demand for OWE from 2020 to 2030, and 2030 to 2040, respectively. Moreover, a potential lifetime extension of wind turbines from 20 to 25 years would help to reduce material requirements by 7-10%. This study provides a basis for better understanding future OWE material requirements and, therefore, for optimizing future OWE developments in the ongoing energy transition. Show less
Continuous reduction in the levelized cost of energy is driving the rapid development of offshore wind energy (OWE). It is thus important to evaluate, from an environmental perspective, the... Show moreContinuous reduction in the levelized cost of energy is driving the rapid development of offshore wind energy (OWE). It is thus important to evaluate, from an environmental perspective, the implications of expanding OWE capacity on a global scale. Nevertheless, this assessment must take into account various scenarios for the growth of different OWE technologies in the near future. To evaluate the environmental impacts of future OWE development, this paper conducts a prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) including parameterized supply chains with high technology resolution. Results show that OWE-related environmental impacts, including climate change, marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, and metal depletion, are reduced by similar to 20% per MWh from 2020 to 2040 due to various developments including size expansion, lifetime extension, and technology innovation. At the global scale, 2.6-3.6 Gt CO2 equiv of greenhouse gas emissions are emitted cumulatively due to OWE deployment from 2020 to 2040. The manufacturing of primary raw materials, such as steel and fibers, is the dominant contributor to impacts. Overall, 6-9% of the cumulative OWE-related environmental impacts could be reduced by end-of-life (EoL) recycling and the substitution of raw materials. Show less
Rajaeifar, A.M.; Raugei, M.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Hartwell, A.; Anderson, A.P.; Heidrich, O. 2022
Life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmentally extended input output analysis (EEIOA) are two widely used approaches to assess the environmental impacts of products and services with the aim of... Show moreLife cycle assessment (LCA) and environmentally extended input output analysis (EEIOA) are two widely used approaches to assess the environmental impacts of products and services with the aim of providing decision support. Here, we compare carbon footprint (CF) results for products and services in the ecoinvent 3.4 cut-off and the hybrid version of EXIOBASE. While we find that there is good agreement for certain sectors, more than half of the matched products differ by more than a factor 2. Best fits are observed in the energy, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, although deviations are substantial for renewable energy. Poorer fits are observed for waste treatment and mining sectors. Both databases have a limited differentiation in the service sector. Differences can, to some degree, be explained by methodological differences, such as system boundaries and approaches used to resolve multi-functionality, and data differences. The common finding that, due to incomplete economic coverage (truncation error), LCA-based CFs should be lower than EEIOA-based CFs, could not be confirmed. The comparison of CFs from LCA and EEIOA databases can provide additional insights into the uncertainties of CF results, which is important knowledge when guiding decision makers. An approach that uses the coefficient of variation to identify strategic database improvement potentials is also presented and highlights several product groups that could deserve additional attention in both databases. Further strategic database improvements are crucial to reduce uncertainties and increase the robustness of decision support that the industrial ecology community can provide for the economic transformations ahead of us. Show less
Dong, D.; Tukker, A.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Oers, L.F.C.M. van; Rechberger, H.; Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; ... ; Voet, E. van der 2022
To conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper.... Show moreTo conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper. Although several studies have assessed the copper demand and recycling, there is a lack of understanding on how different waste management options would potentially reduce primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in China in the context of energy transition. This study addresses this gap in view of a transition to low-carbon energy system and the optimization of copper waste management combining MFA and LCA approaches. Six types of waste streams (C&DW, ELV, WEEE, IEW, MSW, ICW) are investigated in relation to various "Zero waste" strategies including reduction, reuse (repair, remanufacturing or refurbishment), recycling and transition from informal to formal waste management. Under present Chinese policies, reuse and recycling of copper containing products will lead to a somewhat lower dependency on primary copper in 2100 (11187Gg), as well as lower total GHG emissions (64869 Gg CO2-eq.) and cumulative energy demand (1.18x10 boolean AND 12 MJ). Maximizing such "Zero waste" options may lead to a further reduction, resulting in 65% potential reduction of primary copper demand, around 55% potential reduction of total GHG emissions and total cumulative energy demand in 2100. Several policy actions are proposed to provide insights into future waste management in China as well as some of the challenges involved. Show less
Cobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle)... Show moreCobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle) batteries. This study investigated the environmental impacts of the production of cobalt and how these could change in the future. We modeled possible future developments in the cobalt supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary market shares, and (v4) energy transition. These variables are driven by two metal-demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios from the shared socioeconomic pathways, a "business as usual" (BAU) and a "sustainable development" (SD) scenario. We estimated future environmental impacts of cobalt supply by 2050 under these two scenarios using prospective life cycle assessment. We found that the environmental impacts of cobalt production could likely increase and are strongly dependent on the recycling market share and the overall energy transition. The results showed that under the BAU scenario, climate change impacts per unit of cobalt production could increase by 9% by 2050 compared to 2010, while they decreased by 28% under the SD scenario. This comes at a trade-off to other impacts like human toxicity, which could strongly increase in the SD scenario (112% increase) compared to the BAU scenario (71% increase). Furthermore, we found that the energy transition could offset most of the increase of climate change impacts induced by a near doubling in cobalt demand in 2050 between the two scenarios. Show less