Rationale Aspirin is typically discontinued in cranial and spinal surgery because of the increased risk of hemorrhagic complications, but comes together with the risk of resulting in an increase of... Show moreRationale Aspirin is typically discontinued in cranial and spinal surgery because of the increased risk of hemorrhagic complications, but comes together with the risk of resulting in an increase of cardiac and neurologic thrombotic perioperative events. Objective The aim of this study is to investigate the non-inferiority of perioperative continuation of aspirin patients undergoing low complex lumbar spinal surgery, compared with the current policy of perioperative discontinuation of aspirin. Study design A randomized controlled trial with two parallel groups of 277 cases (554 in total). Study population Patients undergoing low complex lumbar spinal surgery and using aspirin. All patients are aged >18 years. Intervention Peri-operative continuation of aspirin. Study outcomes Primary study outcome: composite of the following bleeding complications: – Neurological deterioration as a result of hemorrhage in the surgical area with cauda and/or nerve root compression. – Post-surgical anemia with hemoglobin level lower than 5 mmol/l, requiring transfusion. – Subcutaneous hematoma leading to wound leakage and pain higher than NRS=7. – Major and/or minor hemorrhage in any other body system according to the defnition of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis bleeding scale.Secondary study outcomes: – Each of the individual components of the primary outcome – Absolute mean diference in operative blood loss between the study arms – Thrombo-embolic-related complications: – Myocardial infarction – Venous thromboembolism – Stroke – Arterial thromboembolism Further study outcomes Anticoagulant treatment satisfaction by the Anti-Clot Treatment Scale (ACTS) and general health by the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS Global-10) in the pre- and postoperative phase. Nature and extent of the burden and risks associated with participation, beneft, and group related‑ ness Participation in this study imposes no additional risk to patients. Currently, there is no consensus on whether or not aspirin should be discontinued before cranial or spinal surgery. Currently, aspirin is typically discontinued in cranial and spinal surgery, because of a potential increased risk of hemorrhagic complication. An argument not based on a clinical trial. However, this policy might delay surgical procedures or carry the risk of resulting in an increase in cardiac and neurologic thrombotic perioperative events. It is unclear if the possibility of an increase in hemorrhagerelated complications outweighs the risk of an increase in cardiac and neurologic thrombotic perioperative events. Furthermore, the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) will be asked for safety analysis by monitoring the study. There are no further disadvantages to participating in this study. Outcome measurements are recorded during admission and regular outpatient visits, and thus, do not require additional visits to the hospital. Show less
Purpose Evidence regarding the effect of surgery in traumatic intracerebral hematoma (t-ICH) is limited and relies on the STITCH(Trauma) trial. This study is aimed at comparing the effectiveness of... Show morePurpose Evidence regarding the effect of surgery in traumatic intracerebral hematoma (t-ICH) is limited and relies on the STITCH(Trauma) trial. This study is aimed at comparing the effectiveness of early surgery to conservative treatment in patients with a t-ICH.Methods In a prospective cohort, we included patients with a large t-ICH (< 48 h of injury). Primary outcome was the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) at 6 months, analyzed with multivariable proportional odds logistic regression. Subgroups included injury severity and isolated vs. non-isolated t-ICH.Results A total of 367 patients with a large t-ICH were included, of whom 160 received early surgery and 207 received conservative treatment. Patients receiving early surgery were younger (median age 54 vs. 58 years) and more severely injured (median Glasgow Coma Scale 7 vs. 10) compared to those treated conservatively. In the overall cohort, early surgery was not associated with better functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.1, (95% CI, 0.6-1.7)) compared to conservative treatment. Early surgery was associated with better outcome for patients with moderate TBI and isolated t-ICH (AOR 1.5 (95% CI, 1.1-2.0); P value for interaction 0.71, and AOR 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.5); P value for interaction 0.004). Conversely, in mild TBI and those with a smaller t-ICH (< 33 cc), conservative treatment was associated with better outcome (AOR 0.6 (95% CI, 0.4-0.9); P value for interaction 0.71, and AOR 0.8 (95% CI, 0.5-1.0); P value for interaction 0.32).Conclusions Early surgery in t-ICH might benefit those with moderate TBI and isolated t-ICH, comparable with results of the STITCH(Trauma) trial. Show less
Background Limited evidence existed on the comparative effectiveness of decompressive craniectomy (DC) versus craniotomy for evacuation of traumatic acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) until the... Show moreBackground Limited evidence existed on the comparative effectiveness of decompressive craniectomy (DC) versus craniotomy for evacuation of traumatic acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) until the recently published randomised clinical trial RESCUE-ASDH. In this study, that ran concurrently, we aimed to determine current practice patterns and compare outcomes of primary DC versus craniotomy.Methods We conducted an analysis of centre treatment preference within the prospective, multicentre, observational Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (known as CENTER-TBI) and NeuroTraumatology Quality Registry (known as Net-QuRe) studies, which enrolled patients throughout Europe and Israel (2014-2020). We included patients with an ASDH who underwent acute neurosurgical evacuation. Patients with severe pre-existing neurological disorders were excluded. In an instrumental variable analysis, we compared outcomes between centres according to treatment preference, measured by the case-mix adjusted proportion DC per centre. The primary outcome was functional outcome rated by the 6-months Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended, estimated with ordinal regression as a common odds ratio (OR), adjusted for prespecified confounders. Variation in centre preference was quantified with the median odds ratio (MOR). CENTER-TBI is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02210221, and the Resource Identification Portal (Research Resource Identifier SCR_015582).Findings Between December 19, 2014 and December 17, 2017, 4559 patients with traumatic brain injury were enrolled in CENTER-TBI of whom 336 (7%) underwent acute surgery for ASDH evacuation; 91 (27%) underwent DC and 245 (63%) craniotomy. The proportion primary DC within total acute surgery cases ranged from 6 to 67% with an interquartile range (IQR) of 12-26% among 46 centres; the odds of receiving a DC for prognostically similar patients in one centre versus another randomly selected centre were trebled (adjusted median odds ratio 2.7, p < 0.0001). Higher centre preference for DC over craniotomy was not associated with better functional outcome (adjusted common odds ratio (OR) per 14% [IQR increase] more DC in a centre = 0.9 [95% CI 0.7-1.1], n = 200). Primary DC was associated with more follow-on surgeries and complications [secondary cranial surgery 27% vs. 18%; shunts 11 vs. 5%]; and similar odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR per 14% IQR more primary DC 1.3 [95% CI (1.0-3.4), n = 200]).Interpretation We found substantial practice variation in the employment of DC over craniotomy for ASDH. This variation in treatment strategy did not result in different functional outcome. These findings suggest that primary DC should be restricted to salvageable patients in whom immediate replacement of the bone flap is not possible due to intraoperative brain swelling. Show less
Existing methods to characterise the evolving condition of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) do not capture the context necessary for individualising treatment.... Show moreExisting methods to characterise the evolving condition of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) do not capture the context necessary for individualising treatment. Here, we integrate all heterogenous data stored in medical records (1166 pre-ICU and ICU variables) to model the individualised contribution of clinical course to 6-month functional outcome on the Glasgow Outcome Scale -Extended (GOSE). On a prospective cohort (n = 1550, 65 centres) of TBI patients, we train recurrent neural network models to map a token-embedded time series representation of all variables (including missing values) to an ordinal GOSE prognosis every 2 h. The full range of variables explains up to 52% (95% CI: 50-54%) of the ordinal variance in functional outcome. Up to 91% (95% CI: 90-91%) of this explanation is derived from pre-ICU and admission information (i.e., static variables). Information collected in the ICU (i.e., dynamic variables) increases explanation (by up to 5% [95% CI: 4-6%]), though not enough to counter poorer overall performance in longer-stay (>5.75 days) patients. Highest-contributing variables include physician-based prognoses, CT features, and markers of neurological function. Whilst static information currently accounts for the majority of functional outcome explanation after TBI, data-driven analysis highlights investigative avenues to improve the dynamic characterisation of longer-stay patients. Moreover, our modelling strategy proves useful for converting large patient records into interpretable time series with missing data integration and minimal processing. Show less
Background and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to... Show moreBackground and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to evaluate existing and new prediction models for ESD duration.Patients and methods Records of all consecutive patients who underwent single, non-hybrid colorectal ESDs before 2020 at three Dutch centers were reviewed. The performance of an Eastern prediction model [GIE 2021;94(1):133-144] was assessed in the Dutch cohort. A prediction model for procedure duration was built using multivariable linear regression. The model's performance was validated using internal validation by bootstrap resampling, internal-external cross-validation and external validation in an independent Swedish ESD cohort.Results A total of 435 colorectal ESDs were analyzed (92% en bloc resections, mean duration 139 minutes, mean tumor size 39 mm). The performance of current unstandardized time scheduling practice was suboptimal (explained variance: R-2 =27%). We successfully validated the Eastern prediction model for colorectal ESD duration <60 minutes (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.77), but this model was limited due to dichotomization of the outcome and a relatively low frequency (14%) of ESDs completed <60 minutes in the Dutch centers. The model was more useful with a dichotomization cut-off of 120 minutes (c-statistic: 0.75; 88% and 17% of "easy" and "very difficult" ESDs completed <120 minutes, respectively). To predict ESD duration as continuous outcome, we developed and validated the six-variable cESD-TIME formula ( https://cesdtimeformula.shinyapps.io/calculator/ ; optimism-corrected R-2 =61%; R-2 =66% after recalibration of the slope).Conclusions We provided two useful tools for predicting colorectal ESD duration at Western centers. Further improvements and validations are encouraged with potential local adaptation to optimize time planning. Show less
Importance Outcome prediction after endovascular treatment (EVT) for ischemic stroke is important to patients, family members, and physicians.Objective To develop and validate a model based on... Show moreImportance Outcome prediction after endovascular treatment (EVT) for ischemic stroke is important to patients, family members, and physicians.Objective To develop and validate a model based on preprocedural and postprocedural characteristics to predict functional outcome for individual patients after EVT.Design, Setting, and Participants A prediction model was developed using individual patient data from 7 randomized clinical trials, performed between December 2010 and December 2014. The model was developed within the Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials (HERMES) collaboration and external validation in data from the Dutch Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands (MR CLEAN) Registry of patients treated in clinical practice between March 2014 and November 2017. Participants included patients from multiple centers throughout different countries in Europe, North America, East Asia, and Oceania (derivation cohort), and multiple centers in the Netherlands (validation cohort). Included were adult patients with a history of ischemic stroke from an intracranial large vessel occlusion in the anterior circulation who underwent EVT within 12 hours of symptom onset or last seen well. Data were last analyzed in July 2022.Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s) A total of 19 variables were assessed by multivariable ordinal regression to predict functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score) 90 days after EVT. Variables were routinely available 1 day after EVT. Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to optimize model fit vs model complexity. Probabilities for functional independence (mRS 0-2) and survival (mRS 0-5) were derived from the ordinal model. Model performance was expressed with discrimination (C statistic) and calibration.Results A total of 781 patients (median [IQR] age, 67 [57-76] years; 414 men [53%]) constituted the derivation cohort, and 3260 patients (median [IQR] age, 72 [61-80] years; 1684 men [52%]) composed the validation cohort. Nine variables were included in the model: age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, prestroke mRS score, history of diabetes, occlusion location, collateral score, reperfusion grade, NIHSS score at 24 hours, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage 24 hours after EVT. External validation in the MR CLEAN Registry showed excellent discriminative ability for functional independence (C statistic, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.90-0.92) and survival (0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90). The proportion of functional independence in the MR CLEAN Registry was systematically higher than predicted by the model (41% vs 34%), whereas observed and predicted survival were similar (72% vs 75%). The model was updated and implemented for clinical use.Conclusion and relevance The prognostic tool MR PREDICTS@24H can be applied 1 day after EVT to accurately predict functional outcome for individual patients at 90 days and to provide reliable outcome expectations and personalize follow-up and rehabilitation plans. It will need further validation and updating for contemporary patients. Show less
Candel, B.G.J.; Nissen, S.K.; Nickel, C.H.; Raven, W.; Thijssen, W.; Gaakeer, M.I.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2023
Objectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in... Show moreObjectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18–65, 66–80, > 80 yr).Design: International multicenter cohort study.Setting: Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark.Patients: All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC).Measurements and Main Results: Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% (n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% (n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89–0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82–0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85–0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80–0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5–15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories.Conclusions: The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years. Show less
Langenhuijsen, L.F.S.; Janse, R.J.; Venema, E.; Kent, D.M.; Diepen, M. van; Dekker, F.W.; ... ; Jong, Y. de 2023
Objectives: To (1) explore trends of risk of bias (ROB) in prediction research over time following key methodological publications, using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST)... Show moreObjectives: To (1) explore trends of risk of bias (ROB) in prediction research over time following key methodological publications, using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and (2) assess the inter-rater agreement of the PROBAST.Study Design and Setting: PubMed and Web of Science were searched for reviews with extractable PROBAST scores on domain and signaling question (SQ) level. ROB trends were visually correlated with yearly citations of key publications. Inter-rater agreement was asResults: One hundred and thirty nine systematic reviews were included, of which 85 reviews (containing 2,477 single studies) on domain level and 54 reviews (containing 2,458 single studies) on SQ level. High ROB was prevalent, especially in the Analysis domain, and overall trends of ROB remained relatively stable over time. The inter-rater agreement was low, both on domain (Kappa 0.04-0.26) and SQ level (Kappa -0.14 to 0.49). Conclusion: Prediction model studies are at high ROB and time trends in ROB as assessed with the PROBAST remain relatively stable. These results might be explained by key publications having no influence on ROB or recency of key publications. Moreover, the trend may suffer from the low inter-rater agreement and ceiling effect of the PROBAST. The inter-rater agreement could potentially be improved by altering the PROBAST or providing training on how to apply the PROBAST.& COPY; 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Show less
Kaplan, Z.L.R.; Vlegel, M. van der; Dijck, J.T.J.M. van; Pisica, D.; Leeuwen, N. van; Lingsma, H.F.; ... ; CENTER TBI Participants Invest 2023
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global public health problem and a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability. The increasing incidence combined with the heterogeneity and complexity... Show moreTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global public health problem and a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability. The increasing incidence combined with the heterogeneity and complexity of TBI will inevitably place a substantial burden on health systems. These findings emphasize the importance of obtaining accurate and timely insights into healthcare consumption and costs on a multi-national scale. This study aimed to describe intramural healthcare consumption and costs across the full spectrum of TBI in Europe. The Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) core study is a prospective observational study conducted in 18 countries across Europe and in Israel. The baseline Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was used to differentiate patients by brain injury severity in mild (GCS 13-15), moderate (GCS 9-12), or severe (GCS & LE;8) TBI. We analyzed seven main cost categories: pre-hospital care, hospital admission, surgical interventions, imaging, laboratory, blood products, and rehabilitation. Costs were estimated based on Dutch reference prices and converted to country-specific unit prices using gross domestic product (GDP)-purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustment. Mixed linear regression was used to identify between-country differences in length of stay (LOS), as a parameter of healthcare consumption. Mixed generalized linear models with gamma distribution and log link function quantified associations of patient characteristics with higher total costs. We included 4349 patients, of whom 2854 (66%) had mild, 371 (9%) had moderate, and 962 (22%) had severe TBI. Hospitalization accounted for the largest part of the intramural consumption and costs (60%). In the total study population, the mean LOS was 5.1 days at the intensive care unit (ICU) and 6.3 days at the ward. For mild, moderate, and severe TBI, mean LOS was, respectively, 1.8, 8.9, and 13.5 days at the ICU and 4.5, 10.1, and 10.3 days at the ward. Other large contributors to the total costs were rehabilitation (19%) and intracranial surgeries (8%). Total costs increased with higher age and greater trauma severity (mild; euro3,800 [IQR euro1,400-14,000], moderate; euro37,800 [IQR euro14,900-euro74,200], severe; euro60,400 [IQR euro24,400-euro112,700]). The adjusted analysis showed that female patients had lower costs than male patients (odds ratio (OR) 0.80 [CI 0.75-1.85]). Increasing TBI severity was associated with higher costs, OR 1.46 (confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.63) and OR 1.67 [CI 1.52-1.84] for moderate and severe patients, respectively. A worse pre-morbid overall health state, increasing age and more severe systemic trauma, expressed in the Injury Severity Score (ISS), were also significantly associated with higher costs. Intramural costs of TBI are significant and are profoundly driven by hospitalization. Costs increased with trauma severity and age, and male patients incurred higher costs. Reducing LOS could be targeted with advanced care planning, in order to provide cost-effective care. Show less
Mikolic, A.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Polinder, S.; Wilson, L.; Zeldovich, M.; Steinbuechel, N. von; ... ; CENTER-TBI Participants 2023
After mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms... Show moreAfter mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). We aimed to develop prognostic models for the GOSE and PPCS at 6 months after mTBI and to assess the prognostic value of different categories of predictors (clinical variables; questionnaires; computed tomography [CT]; blood biomarkers). From the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, we included participants aged 16 or older with Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 13-15. We used ordinal logistic regression to model the relationship between predictors and the GOSE, and linear regression to model the relationship between predictors and the Rivermead Post-concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) total score. First, we studied a pre-specified Core model. Next, we extended the Core model with other clinical and sociodemographic variables available at presentation (Clinical model). The Clinical model was then extended with variables assessed before discharge from hospital: early post-concussion symptoms, CT variables, biomarkers, or all three categories (extended models). In a subset of patients mostly discharged home from the emergency department, the Clinical model was extended with 2-3-week post-concussion and mental health symptoms. Predictors were selected based on Akaike's Information Criterion. Performance of ordinal models was expressed as a concordance index (C) and performance of linear models as proportion of variance explained (R2). Bootstrap validation was used to correct for optimism. We included 2376 mTBI patients with 6-month GOSE and 1605 patients with 6-month RPQ. The Core and Clinical models for GOSE showed moderate discrimination (C = 0.68 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.70 and C = 0.70[0.69 to 0.71], respectively) and injury severity was the strongest predictor. The extended models had better discriminative ability (C = 0.71[0.69 to 0.72] with early symptoms; 0.71[0.70 to 0.72] with CT variables or with blood biomarkers; 0.72[0.71 to 0.73] with all three categories). The performance of models for RPQ was modest (R2 = 4% Core; R2 = 9% Clinical), and extensions with early symptoms increased the R2 to 12%. The 2-3-week models had better performance for both outcomes in the subset of participants with these symptoms measured (C = 0.74 [0.71 to 0.78] vs. C = 0.63[0.61 to 0.67] for GOSE; R2 = 37% vs. 6% for RPQ). In conclusion, the models based on variables available before discharge have moderate performance for the prediction of GOSE and poor performance for the prediction of PPCS. Symptoms assessed at 2-3 weeks are required for better predictive ability of both outcomes. The performance of the proposed models should be examined in independent cohorts. Show less
Hond, A.A.H. de; Shah, V.B.; Kant, I.M.J.; Calster, B. van; Steyerberg, E.W.; Hernandez-Boussard, T. 2023
The generalizability of predictive algorithms is of key relevance to application in clinical practice. We provide an overview of three types of generalizability, based on existing literature:... Show moreThe generalizability of predictive algorithms is of key relevance to application in clinical practice. We provide an overview of three types of generalizability, based on existing literature: temporal, geographical, and domain generalizability. These generalizability types are linked to their associated goals, methodology, and stakeholders. Show less
Kaal, A.G.; Hoek, L. op de; Hochheimer, D.T.; Brouwers, C.; Wiersinga, W.J.; Snijders, D.; ... ; Nieuwkoop, C. van 2023
Background The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 score assess disease severity in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We compared the clinical performance of both... Show moreBackground The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 score assess disease severity in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We compared the clinical performance of both prognostic scores according to clinical outcomes and admission rates.Methods A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted using claims data from adult CAP patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) in 2018 and 2019. Dutch hospitals were divided into three categories: “CURB-65 hospitals” (n=25), “PSI hospitals” (n=19) and hospitals using both (“no-consensus hospitals”, n=15). Main outcomes were hospital admission rates, intensive care unit admissions, length of hospital stay, delayed admissions, readmissions and all-cause 30-day mortality. Multilevel logistic and Poisson regression analysis were used to adjust for potential confounders.Findings Of 50 984 included CAP patients, 21 157 were treated in CURB-65 hospitals, 17 279 in PSI hospitals and 12 548 in no-consensus hospitals. The 30-day mortality was significantly lower in CURB-65 hospitals versus PSI hospitals (8.6% and 9.7%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83–0.96, p=0.003). Other clinical outcomes were similar between CURB-65 hospitals and PSI hospitals. No-consensus hospitals had higher admission rates compared to the CURB-65 and PSI hospitals combined (78.4% and 81.5%, aOR 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62–0.99).Interpretation In this study, using the CURB-65 in CAP patients at the ED is associated with similar and possibly even better clinical outcomes compared to using the PSI. After confirmation in prospective studies, the CURB-65 may be recommended over the use of the PSI since it is associated with lower 30-day mortality and is more user-friendly. Show less
OBJECTIVE In the surgical treatment of isthmic spondylolisthesis, it is debatable whether instrumented fusion is mandatory in addition to decompression. The objective of this prospective cohort... Show moreOBJECTIVE In the surgical treatment of isthmic spondylolisthesis, it is debatable whether instrumented fusion is mandatory in addition to decompression. The objective of this prospective cohort study was to assess the long-term effect of decompression alone compared with decompression and instrumented fusion in patients who underwent the intervention of their own preference. The results were compared with those in patients who underwent randomly assigned treatment.METHODS The authors performed a prospective observational multicenter cohort study, including 91 patients with isthmic spondylolisthesis assigned to undergo either decompression alone (n = 44) or decompression and fusion (n = 47). The main outcomes were the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RDQ) scores and the patient's perceived recovery at the 2-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes were visual analog scale (VAS) leg pain and back pain scores and the reoperation rate. A meta-analysis was performed for data from this cohort study (n = 91) and from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) previously reported by the authors (n = 84). Subgroup analyses were performed on these combined data for age, sex, weight, smoking, and Meyerding grade.RESULTS At the 12-week follow-up, improvements of RDQ scores were comparable for the two procedures (decompression alone [D group] 4.4, 95% CI 2.3-6.5; decompression and fusion [DF group] 5.8, 95% CI -4.3 to 1.4; p = 0.31). Likewise, VAS leg pain scores (D group 35.0, 95% CI 24.5-45.6; DF group 47.5, 95% CI 37.4-57.5; p = 0.09) and VAS back pain scores (D group 23.5, 95% CI 13.3-33.7; DF group 34.0, 95% CI 24.1-43.8; p = 0.15) were comparable. At the 2-year follow-up, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of scores for RDQ (difference -3.1, 95% CI -6.4 to 0.3, p = 0.07), VAS leg pain (difference -7.4, 95% CI -22.1 to 7.2, p = 0.31), and VAS back pain (difference -11.4, 95% CI -25.7 to 2.9, p = 0.12). In contrast, patient-perceived recovery from leg pain was significantly higher in the DF group (79% vs 51%, p = 0.02). Subgroup analyses did not demonstrate a superior outcome for decompression alone compared with decompression and fusion. Nine patients (20.5%) underwent reoperation in total, all in the D group. The meta-analysis including both the cohort and RCT populations yielded an estimated pooled mean difference in RDQ of -3.7 (95% CI -5.94 to -1.55, p = 0.0008) in favor of decompression and fusion at the 2-year follow- up.CONCLUSIONS In patients with isthmic spondylolisthesis, at the 2-year follow-up, patients who underwent decompression and fusion showed superior functional outcome and perceived recovery compared with those who underwent decompression alone. No subgroups benefited from decompression alone. Therefore, decompression and fusion is recommended over decompression alone as a primary surgical treatment option in isthmic spondylolisthesis. Show less
Pastena, M. de; Bodegraven, E.A. van; Mungroop, T.H.; Vissers, F.L.; Jones, L.R.; Marchegiani, G.; ... ; Bassi, C. 2023
Objective: To develop 2 distinct preoperative and intraoperative risk scores to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP) to improve preventive and mitigation... Show moreObjective: To develop 2 distinct preoperative and intraoperative risk scores to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP) to improve preventive and mitigation strategies, respectively.Background: POPF remains the most common complication after DP. Despite several known risk factors, an adequate risk model has not been developed yet.Methods: Two prediction risk scores were designed using data of patients undergoing DP in 2 Italian centers (2014-2016) utilizing multivariable logistic regression. The preoperative score (calculated before surgery) aims to facilitate preventive strategies and the intraoperative score (calculated at the end of surgery) aims to facilitate mitigation strategies. Internal validation was achieved using bootstrapping. These data were pooled with data from 5 centers from the United States and the Netherlands (2007-2016) to assess discrimination and calibration in an internal-external validation procedure.Results: Overall, 1336 patients after DP were included, of whom 291 (22%) developed POPF. The preoperative distal fistula risk score (preoperative D-FRS) included 2 variables: pancreatic neck thickness [odds ratio: 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.17 per mm increase] and pancreatic duct diameter (OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.32-1.65 per mm increase). The model performed well with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70-0.76) upon internal-external validation. Three risk groups were identified: low risk (<10%), intermediate risk (10%-25%), and high risk (>25%) for POPF with 238 (18%), 684 (51%), and 414 (31%) patients, respectively. The intraoperative risk score (intraoperative D-FRS) added body mass index, pancreatic texture, and operative time as variables with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.85).Conclusions: The preoperative and the intraoperative D-FRS are the first validated risk scores for POPF after DP and are readily available at: . The 3 distinct risk groups allow for personalized treatment and benchmarking. Show less
Prognostic prediction of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in patients is crucial in clinical decision and health care policy making. This study aimed to develop and validate prediction models for in... Show morePrognostic prediction of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in patients is crucial in clinical decision and health care policy making. This study aimed to develop and validate prediction models for in-hospital mortality after severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI). We developed and validated logistic regression (LR), LASSO regression, and machine learning (ML) algorithms including support vector machines (SVM) and XGBoost models. Fifty-four candidate predictors were included. Model performance was expressed in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (intercept and slope). For model development, 2804 patients with sTBI in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI (CENTER-TBI) China Registry study were included. External validation was performed in 1113 patients with sTBI in the CENTER-TBI European Registry study. XGBoost achieved high discrimination in mortality prediction, and it outperformed logistic and LASSO regression. The XGBoost model established in this study also outperformed prediction models currently available, including the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) core and International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (CRASH) basic models. When including 54 variables, XGBoost and SVM reached C-statistics of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81-0.92) and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.90) at internal validation, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.87-0.88) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.85-0.87) at external validation, respectively. A simplified version of XGBoost and SVM using 26 variables selected by recursive feature elimination (RFE) reached C-statistics of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.82-0.92) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.80-0.91) at internal validation, and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.87-0.88) and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.86-0.87) at external validation, respectively. However, when the number of variables included decreased, the difference between ML and LR diminished. All the prediction models can be accessed via a web-based calculator. Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, age, pupillary light reflex, Injury Severity Score (ISS) for brain region, and the presence of acute subdural hematoma were the five strongest predictors for mortality prediction. The study showed that ML techniques such as XGBoost may capture information hidden in demographic and clinical predictors of patients with sTBI and yield more precise predictions compared with LR approaches. Show less
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can negatively impact patients' lives on many dimensions. Multiple instruments are available for evaluating TBI outcomes, but it is still unclear which instruments are... Show moreTraumatic brain injury (TBI) can negatively impact patients' lives on many dimensions. Multiple instruments are available for evaluating TBI outcomes, but it is still unclear which instruments are the most sensitive for that purpose. This study examines the sensitivity of nine outcome instruments in terms of their ability to discriminate within and between specific patient groups, selected a priori as identified from the literature, at three different time points within a year after TBI (i.e., 3, 6, and 12 months post injury). The sensitivity of the instruments to sociodemographic (sex, age, education), premorbid (psychological health status), and injury-related (clinical care pathways, TBI and extracranial injury severity) factors was assessed by means of cross-sectional multivariate Wei-Lachin analyses. The Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE)-the standard in the field of TBI for measuring functional recovery-demonstrated the highest sensitivity in most group comparisons. However, as single functional scale, it may not be able to reflect the multidimensional nature of the outcome. Therefore, the GOSE was used as a reference for further sensitivity analyses on more specific outcome scales, addressing further potential deficits following TBI. The physical component summary score (PCS) of the generic health-related quality of life (HRQOL) instruments (SF-36v2/-12v2) and the TBI-specific HRQOL instruments (QOLIBRI/-OS) were most sensitive in distinguishing recovery after TBI across all time points and patient groups, followed by the RPQ assessing post-concussion symptoms and the PHQ-9 measuring depression. The SF-36v2/-12v2 mental component summary score and the GAD-7 measuring anxiety were less sensitive in several group comparisons. The assessment of the functional recovery status combined with generic HRQOL (the PCS of the SF-12v2), disease-specific HRQOL (QOLIBRI-OS), and post-concussion symptoms (RPQ) can provide a sensitive, comprehensive, yet time-efficient evaluation of the health status of individuals after TBI in different patient groups. Show less
Treatment effects are often anticipated to vary across groups of patients with different baseline risk. The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity (PATH) statement focused on... Show moreTreatment effects are often anticipated to vary across groups of patients with different baseline risk. The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity (PATH) statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in a randomized controlled trial. The aim of this study is to extend this approach to the observational setting using a standardized scalable framework. The proposed framework consists of five steps: (1) definition of the research aim, i.e., the population, the treatment, the comparator and the outcome(s) of interest; (2) identification of relevant databases; (3) development of a prediction model for the outcome(s) of interest; (4) estimation of relative and absolute treatment effect within strata of predicted risk, after adjusting for observed confounding; (5) presentation of the results. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating heterogeneity of the effect of thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics versus angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors on three efficacy and nine safety outcomes across three observational databases. We provide a publicly available R software package for applying this framework to any database mapped to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. In our demonstration, patients at low risk of acute myocardial infarction receive negligible absolute benefits for all three efficacy outcomes, though they are more pronounced in the highest risk group, especially for acute myocardial infarction. Our framework allows for the evaluation of differential treatment effects across risk strata, which offers the opportunity to consider the benefit-harm trade-off between alternative treatments. Show less
Rekkas, A.; Rijnbeek, P.R.; Kent, D.M.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Klaveren, D. van 2023
Background Baseline outcome risk can be an important determinant of absolute treatment benefit and has been used in guidelines for "personalizing" medical decisions. We compared easily applicable... Show moreBackground Baseline outcome risk can be an important determinant of absolute treatment benefit and has been used in guidelines for "personalizing" medical decisions. We compared easily applicable risk-based methods for optimal prediction of individualized treatment effects.Methods We simulated RCT data using diverse assumptions for the average treatment effect, a baseline prognostic index of risk, the shape of its interaction with treatment (none, linear, quadratic or non-monotonic), and the magnitude of treatment-related harms (none or constant independent of the prognostic index). We predicted absolute benefit using: models with a constant relative treatment effect; stratification in quarters of the prognostic index; models including a linear interaction of treatment with the prognostic index; models including an interaction of treatment with a restricted cubic spline transformation of the prognostic index; an adaptive approach using Akaike's Information Criterion. We evaluated predictive performance using root mean squared error and measures of discrimination and calibration for benefit.Results The linear-interaction model displayed optimal or close-to-optimal performance across many simulation scenarios with moderate sample size (N = 4,250; similar to 785 events). The restricted cubic splines model was optimal for strong non-linear deviations from a constant treatment effect, particularly when sample size was larger (N = 17,000). The adaptive approach also required larger sample sizes. These findings were illustrated in the GUSTO-I trial.Conclusions An interaction between baseline risk and treatment assignment should be considered to improve treatment effect predictions. Show less