Judgmental adjustments in revenue management : exploring the impact of user overrides on the accuracy of system-generated occupancy forecasts at multiple forecasting horizons

Koupriouchina, L.A. (2019)

Doctoral Thesis

Automated revenue management systems with complex and protected algorithms have significantly changed the revenue management profession. Hotels have become increasingly reliant on advanced computer systems that continually reforecast hotel demand. However, performance of these systems is not flawless, and revenue managers adjust their computer system forecasts using their professional judgment. These judgmental adjustments can improve accuracy, but if performed poorly, can result in a cascade of suboptimal decisions. This dissertation explores the influence of judgmental adjustments on the accuracy of system-generated hotel occupancy forecasts. To this purpose, three studies have been conducted. The dissertation first evaluated whether it matters which measure is used to assess the forecast accuracy. It was then investigated whether the timing of judgmental adjustments influenced the forecast accuracy. Finally, the characteristics of judgmental adjustments (e.g., direction, size, frequency) and their effects on forecast accuracy were analyzed. The dissertation shows that (1) the choice of accuracy measure is complex and important, (2) the accuracy of occupancy forecasts improves considerably as the forecast horizon becomes shorter, and (3) the effect of judgmental adjustments differs and differs per hotel. Using a disaggregated reforecasting perspective, this dissertation improves understanding of how judgmental adjustments impact the accuracy of system-generated occupancy forecasts.

• Hotel
• Revenue management
• Forecasting
• Revenue management system
• Accuracy
• Judgmental adjustments

• All authors: Koupriouchina, L.A.
• Supervisor: Rest, J.I. van der
• Co-supervisor: Pluut, H.; Zwan, P.W. van der
• Committee: Adriaanse, J.A.A.; Heo, C.Y.; Legohérel, P.; Mei, R.D. van der
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Institute of Tax Law and Economics, Faculty of Law, Leiden University
• Date: 2019-11-12
• ISBN (print): 9789493184015
• Sponsorship: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)