Deepening the uncertainty dimension of environmental Life Cycle Assessment: addressing choice, future and interpretation uncertainties.

Mendoza Beltran, M.A. (2018)

Doctoral Thesis

LCA has become an important method to study environmental impacts of human activities. Still, there are several methodological issues in LCA that can adversely affect the results reliability. Three of these issues relate to a) allocation, b) the representation of the time dimension and c) the interpretation of results in LCA. Uncertainties play a fundamental and underlying role for these issues. It is widely-agreed that correctly dealing with these different uncertainty sources is a vital step towards increasing the usefulness and reliability of LCA results. Practical ways to deal with uncertainty are needed. The aim of this thesis is to deepen the understanding of the uncertainty dimension of current LCA. By means of addressing different sources of uncertainty not yet addressed, with new methods, a clearer picture of the implications of different sources of uncertainty in LCA is provided. This thesis departed from broad domains of uncertainty including risk, uncertainty as conventionally described, ignorance and indeterminacies. The selected sources of uncertainty are in the domains of risk and conventional uncertainty i.e. those due to incomplete scientific knowledge and that are to some extent quantifiable. This does not mean that all can be known or quantified as ignorance and indeterminacies exist.

• Life cycle assessment
• Uncertainty
• Methodological choices
• Interpretation
• Prospective LCA

• All authors: Mendoza Beltran, M.A.
• Supervisor: Tukker, A.; Vuuren, D.P. van
• Co-supervisor: Guinée, J.B.
• Committee: Bodegom, P.M. van; Vijver, M.; Huijbregts, M.; Ramírez, A.; Heijungs, R.; Steubing, B.
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Faculty of Science, Leiden University
• Date: 2018-10-09
• ISBN (print): 9789463800174