Stock-driven scenarios on global material demand: the story of a lifetime

Deetman, S.P. (2021)

Doctoral Thesis

The role of material production as a driver of environmental impacts is increasing, which calls for a better understanding of global material flows. This thesis explores the role of in-use stocks of products, buildings and infrastructure as a key driver of global material demand and discusses the implications with regards to availability of waste flows. The method based on detailed product compositions and lifetimes is applied to generate material use scenario’s towards 2050 for appliances, vehicles, buildings and electricity infrastructure. Under most of the developed scenarios, a growing population and increasing affluence are expected to lead to higher demand for products, and consequentially leads to a continued growth in annual material demand worldwide. While the results can be used to identify sector specific challenges and opportunities for achieving a more circular economy, the method also provides a starting point to incorporate material cycles and resource efficiency strategies more explicitly and consistently in integrated assessment models. This would allow for a more comprehensive assessment of resource use in relation to other global challenges such as climate change.

• Material demand
• Societal stocks
• Scenarios
• Integrated assessment
• Circular economy

• All authors: Deetman, S.P.
• Supervisor: Voet, E. van der; Vuuren, D.P. van; Tukker, A.
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Faculty of Science, Leiden University
• Date: 2021-12-08
• ISBN (print): 9789051911985