Development and validation of a prognostic score for long-term transplant-free survival in autoimmune hepatitis type 1

Biewenga, M.; Verhelst, X.P.D.M.J.; Baven-Pronk, M.A.M.C.; Putter, H.; Berg, A.P. van den; Nieuwkerk, K.C.M.J. van; Buuren, H.R. van; Bouma, G.; Boer, Y.S. de; Simoen, C.; Colle, I.; Schouten, J.; Sermon, F.; Steenkiste, C. van; Vlierberghe, H. van; Meer, A.J. van der; Nevens, F.; Hoek, B. van; Dutch Autoimmune Hepatitis Study G

doi:doi:10.1002/ueg2.12112

Persistent URL of this record https://hdl.handle.net/1887/3204243

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Medicine / Leiden University Medical Centre (LUMC)

Biewenga, M.; Verhelst, X.P.D.M.J.; Baven-Pronk, M.A.M.C.; Putter, H.; Berg, A.P. van den; Nieuwkerk, K.C.M.J. van; ... ; Dutch Autoimmune Hepatitis Study G (2021)

Development and validation of a prognostic score for long-term transplant-free survival in autoimmune hepatitis type 1

Article / Letter to editor

Background No prognostic score is currently available for long-term survival in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate such a prognostic score for AIH patients at diagnosis. Methods The prognostic score was developed using uni- & multivariate Cox regression in a 4-center Dutch cohort and validated in an independent 6-center Belgian cohort. Results In the derivation cohort of 396 patients 19 liver transplantations (LTs) and 51 deaths occurred (median follow-up 118 months; interquartile range 60-202 months). In multivariate analysis age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.045; p < 0.001), non-caucasian ethnicity (HR 1.897; p = 0.045), cirrhosis (HR 3.266; p < 0.001) and alanine aminotransferase level (HR 0.725; p = 0.003) were significant independent predictors for mortality or LT (C-statistic 0.827; 95% CI 0.790-0.864). In the validation cohort of 408 patients death or LT occurred in 78 patients during a median follow-up of 74 months ...Show moreBackground No prognostic score is currently available for long-term survival in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate such a prognostic score for AIH patients at diagnosis. Methods The prognostic score was developed using uni- & multivariate Cox regression in a 4-center Dutch cohort and validated in an independent 6-center Belgian cohort. Results In the derivation cohort of 396 patients 19 liver transplantations (LTs) and 51 deaths occurred (median follow-up 118 months; interquartile range 60-202 months). In multivariate analysis age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.045; p < 0.001), non-caucasian ethnicity (HR 1.897; p = 0.045), cirrhosis (HR 3.266; p < 0.001) and alanine aminotransferase level (HR 0.725; p = 0.003) were significant independent predictors for mortality or LT (C-statistic 0.827; 95% CI 0.790-0.864). In the validation cohort of 408 patients death or LT occurred in 78 patients during a median follow-up of 74 months (interquartile range: 25-142 months). Predicted 5-year event rate did not differ from observed event rate (high risk group 21.5% vs. 15.7% (95% CI: 6.3%-24.2%); moderate risk group 5.8% versus 4.3% (95% CI: 0.0%-9.1%); low risk group 1.9% versus 5.4% (95% CI: 0.0%-11.4%); C-statistic 0.744 [95% CI 0.644-0.844]). Conclusions A Dutch-Belgian prognostic score for long-term transplant-free survival in AIH patients at diagnosis was developed and validated.Show less

AIH

autoimmune hepatitis

autoimmune liver disease

liver transplantation

transplant-free survival

validation