Conditional survival after resection for pancreatic cancer: a population-based study and prediction model

Latenstein, A.E.J.; Roessel, S. van; Geest, L.G.M. van der; Bonsing, B.A.; Dejong, C.H.C.; Koerkamp, B.G.; ... ; Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp (2020)

Article / Letter to editor

Background Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005-2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0-5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17-18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via to inform patients and caregivers.

• Pancreatic cancer
• Conditional survival
• Survival
• Prediction model

• All authors: Latenstein, A.E.J.; Roessel, S. van; Geest, L.G.M. van der; Bonsing, B.A.; Dejong, C.H.C.; Koerkamp, B.G.; Hingh, I.H.J.T. de; Horns, M.Y.V.; Klaase, J.M.; Lemmens, V.; Molenaar, I.Q.; Steyerberg, W.; Stommel, M.W.J.; Busch, O.R.; Eijck, C.H.J. van; Laarhoven, H.W.M. van; Wilmink, J.W.; Besselink, M.G.; Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp
• Date: 2020-02-12
• Journal: Annals of Surgical Oncology
• Volume: 27
• Pages: 2516 - 2524
• DOI: doi:10.1245/s10434-020-08235-w
• Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1245/s10434-020-08235-w