AbstractThe world is shifting to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change. Here, we quantify the future demand for key battery materials, considering potential electric vehicle fleet and... Show moreAbstractThe world is shifting to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change. Here, we quantify the future demand for key battery materials, considering potential electric vehicle fleet and battery chemistry developments as well as second-use and recycling of electric vehicle batteries. We find that in a lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide dominated battery scenario, demand is estimated to increase by factors of 18–20 for lithium, 17–19 for cobalt, 28–31 for nickel, and 15–20 for most other materials from 2020 to 2050, requiring a drastic expansion of lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains and likely additional resource discovery. However, uncertainties are large. Key factors are the development of the electric vehicles fleet and battery capacity requirements per vehicle. If other battery chemistries were used at large scale, e.g. lithium iron phosphate or novel lithium-sulphur or lithium-air batteries, the demand for cobalt and nickel would be substantially smaller. Closed-loop recycling plays a minor, but increasingly important role for reducing primary material demand until 2050, however, advances in recycling are necessary to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Second-use of electric vehicles batteries further delays recycling potentials. Show less
Zhang, C.; Hu, M.; Laclau, B.; Garnesson, T.; Yang, X.; Li, C.; Tukker, A. 2020
Around 35% of the buildings in Europe are over 50 years old and almost 75% of the building stock is energy-inefficient. A European project VEEP is developing an innovative prefabricated concrete... Show moreAround 35% of the buildings in Europe are over 50 years old and almost 75% of the building stock is energy-inefficient. A European project VEEP is developing an innovative prefabricated concrete element (PCE) system to improve the thermal performance of new buildings (PCE1) and old buildings (PCE2). This study focused on retrofitting of old buildings via over-cladding of the building envelope with PCE2. This study aims to from a building owner/consumer’s perspective to explore the life cycle economic performance of the PCE2 system at an early stage and associated cost optimization strategies under the European context. This study tries to answer four questions: 1) whether the use of the PCE2 leads to an economic advantage over a specific life cycle of an existing building. 2) what is the biggest cost stressor in the life cycle of a PCE2? 3) the potential route for further cost optimization. and 4) how would the discount rate affect the life cycle costs, especially when Europe has entered a negative rate age? A typical apartment building in the Netherlands is selected as the case study for dynamic thermal simulation, in which the heating and cooling energy demands before and after refurbishment with PCE2 will be evaluated. By employing environmental life cycle costing (LCC), the life cycle costs over 40 years and associated strategy for cost optimization will be investigated. This research not only unveils meaningful financial implications on resource-efficient building energy retrofitting in Europe but also provides insight on methodological dilemmas within the application of LCC. Show less
Zhang, C.; Hu, M.; Yang, X.; Miranda Xicotencatl, B.; Sprecher, B.; Di Maio, F.; ... ; Tukker, A. 2020
Urban mining from construction and demolition waste (CDW) is highly relevant for the circular economy ambitions of the European Union (EU). Given the large volumes involved, end-of-life (EoL)... Show moreUrban mining from construction and demolition waste (CDW) is highly relevant for the circular economy ambitions of the European Union (EU). Given the large volumes involved, end-of-life (EoL) concrete is identified as one of the priority streams for CDW recycling in most EU countries, but it is currently largely downcycled or even landfilled. The European projects C2CA and VEEP have proposed several cost-effective technologies to recover EoL concrete for new concrete manufacturing. To understand the potential effects of large-scale implementation of those recycling technologies on the circular construction, this study deployed static material flow analysis (MFA) for a set of EoL concrete management scenarios in the Netherlands constructed by considering the development factors in two, technological and temporal dimensions. On the technological dimension, three treatment systems for EoL concrete management, namely: business-as-usual treatment, C2CA technological system and VEEP technological system were investigated. On the temporal dimension, 2015 was selected as the reference year, representing the current situation, and 2025 as the future year for the prospective analysis. The results show that the development of cost-effective technologies has the potential to improve the share of recycling (as opposed to downcycling) in the Netherlands from around 5% in 2015 up to 22%~32% in 2025. From the academic aspect, the presented work illustrates how the temporal dimension can be included in the static MFA study to explore the potential effects in the future. Show less
Zhang, C.; Hu, M.; Yang, X.; Amati, A.; Tukker, A. 2020
The emissions of the Chinese industrial sector alone comprise 24.1% of global emissions (7.8 GtCyr−1 in 2015). This makes Chinese industrial emissions of unique national and international relevance... Show moreThe emissions of the Chinese industrial sector alone comprise 24.1% of global emissions (7.8 GtCyr−1 in 2015). This makes Chinese industrial emissions of unique national and international relevance in climate policy. This study reports a literature survey that quantitatively describes the evolution of these emissions from 2000 to 2050 in the context of policy goals. The survey reveals that: (1) The major historical factor contributing to the decrease in industrial CO2 emissions has been the reduction in energy intensities. However, that decrease has been more than compensated for by increases in industrial activity. (2) An ensemble of projections shows that China's industrial emissions will likely peak in 2030, in alignment with China's commitment to the Paris Agreement. The timing of the peak varies across industrial sub-sectors, with ferrous metals and non-metallic products sectors peaking first, and the electricity sector later. (3) The assumptions underlying optimistic scenarios broadly match the drivers of recent decreases in historical emissions (energy intensity, industrial structure and energy mix). Furthermore, these factors feature prominently in China's policy portfolio to both develop and decarbonize the Chinese industrial sector. The industrial carbon intensity targets of 2020 and 2025 are close to the median predictions in the medium scenarios from studies. Show less
Zhang, C.; Hu, M.; Dong, L.; Gebremariam, A.; Xicotencatl, B.M.; Di Maio, F.; Tukker, A. 2019
The increasing volume of Construction and demolition waste (CDW) associated with economic growth is posing challenges to the sustainable management of the built environment. The largest fraction of... Show moreThe increasing volume of Construction and demolition waste (CDW) associated with economic growth is posing challenges to the sustainable management of the built environment. The largest fraction of all the CDW generated in the member states of the European Union (EU) is End-of-life (EOL) concrete. The most widely applied method for EOL concrete recovery in Europe is road base backfilling, which is considered low-grade recovery. The common practice for high-grade recycling is wet process that processes and washes EOL concrete into clean coarse aggregate for concrete manufacturing. It is costly. As a result, a series of EU projects have been launched to advance the technologies for high value-added concrete recycling. A critical environmental and economic evaluation of such technological innovations is important to inform decision making, while there has been a lack of studies in this field. Hence the present study aimed to assess the efficiency of the technical innovations in high-grade concrete recycling, using an improved eco-efficiency analytical approach by integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). Four systems of high-grade concrete recycling were analyzed for comparison: (i) business-as-usual (BAU) stationary wet processing; (ii) stationary advanced dry recovery (ADR); (iii) mobile ADR; (iv) mobile ADR and Heating Air Classification (A&H). An overarching framework was proposed for LCA/LCC-type eco-efficiency assessment conforming to ISO standards. The study found that technological routes that recycle on-site and produce high-value secondary products are most advantageous. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed to support the technological innovations of CDW management. Show less
Wang, J.; Hu, M.; Tukker, A.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F. 2019
In order to respond to climate change, China has committed to reduce national carbon intensity by 40–45% in 2020 and 60–65% in 2030, relative to 2005. Given that energy-intensive industries... Show moreIn order to respond to climate change, China has committed to reduce national carbon intensity by 40–45% in 2020 and 60–65% in 2030, relative to 2005. Given that energy-intensive industries represent ~80% of total CO2 emissions in China and that China is a large and diverse country, this paper aims to investigate the potential contribution of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries to CO2 emissions reduction and to meeting China's emissions goals. To the best of our knowledge this matter has never been explored before. Using panel data from 2001 to 2015, we build three scenarios of future carbon intensities: business as usual (BAU), frontier (based on the directional distance function, in which all regions reach the efficiency frontier) and best available technology (BAT, in which all regions adopt the lowest-emitting technology). The frontier and BAT scenarios represent a weak and a strong form of regional convergence, respectively, and the BAU assumes that it develops following historical patterns. We then use the Kaya identity to estimate CO2 emissions up to 2030 under the three scenarios. Our results are as follows: (1) Under BAU, the CO2 emissions of energy-intensive industries increase from 7382.8 Mt in 2015 to 8127.6 Mt in 2030. Under the frontier scenario the emissions in 2030 are 44.23% lower than under business as usual, while under the BAT scenario this value becomes 84.81%. Electricity and ferrous metals are the sectors that most contribute to the reduction potential. (2) Even under BAU the carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries as a whole and all of its constituent sub-sectors except for electricity will decrease by more than the nationally-mandated averages. (3) Regional convergence could help the energy-intensive industries peak its CO2 emissions before 2030, while under BAU the absolute emissions of the energy-intensive industries keep increasing. Show less
Zhang, C.; Hu, M.; Dong, L.; Xiang, P.; Zhang, Q.; Wu, J.; ... ; Shi, S. 2018
Rapid urbanization drives massive construction, which, in return, leads to ever increasing urban metabolism challenges on the provision of raw materials, as well as the disposal of construction and... Show moreRapid urbanization drives massive construction, which, in return, leads to ever increasing urban metabolism challenges on the provision of raw materials, as well as the disposal of construction and demolition waste. Due to its large volume, the transporting and processing of these materials cause considerable greenhouse gas emissions and land use change. With this circumstance, shortening the supply chains of urban construction by efficient recycling of construction and demolition waste becomes a frontier field for the circular transition of cities. It is particularly important in current China, where the concrete recycling is still rare. This paper aims to map the opportunities and potentials of concrete recycling on the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use change, with an integrated material flow analysis and life cycle assessment for the case study city – Chongqing, China. For the baseline year 2015, four scenarios representing various recycling routes in Chongqing have been explored: (1) improving brick manufacturing; (2) recycling on-site for road base filling; (3) recycling aggregate for prefabricated concrete component and (4) recycling concrete aggregate for structure use. Results highlighted that different technological routes have different potentials to increase recycling rates but all generate co-benefits on greenhouse gases mitigation and land transformation reduction. Recycling of stony construction and demolition waste for high value concrete aggregate has the biggest potential to bring the co-benefits on greenhouse gases mitigation and land use reduction. Besides, on-site recycling for road-base aggregates also presents a high performance, especially on greenhouse gases mitigation in transport. Based on the sensitivity analysis, policy implications were discussed, highlighting the necessity of to develop the recycling routes that substitute primary gravel with aggregates recycled from the stony waste; unlocking the existing recycling capacity and restricting landfilling. Show less
Wray, N.R.; Ripke, S.; Mattheisen, M.; Trzaskowski, M.; Byrne, E.M.; Abdellaoui, A.; ... ; Major Depressive Disorder Working 2018
Sustainability challenges raised by built environment development are two-folds: on the inflow side these include resource depletion and emission problems due to material production (pre-use); on... Show moreSustainability challenges raised by built environment development are two-folds: on the inflow side these include resource depletion and emission problems due to material production (pre-use); on the outflow side they include problems of construction and demolition waste (after-use). Understanding how the future construction inflow and demolition outflow will develop is essential for early recognition of these problems. A traditional approach is through extrapolation, which is risky because changes of trends may occur. A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis approach, based on the Law of Mass Preservation, provides a better framework for long-term projection. The challenge is to understand the dynamics of the built environment stocks. It is especially true for the emerging countries, where the combined influences of rapid economic development and urbanization have to be considered but are yet rarely investigated. This thesis develops the currently available approaches by including general socio-economic and specific urbanization-driven factors in China. Case studies on Chinese housing stock dynamics indicate: demolition activities in Chinese cities will continue to grow throughout the rest of the 21st century; a shrinking demand for residential steel may be expected over the next few decades, which may lead to a decrease in global steel consumption of up to 10%. Show less
Hu, M.; Bergsdal, H.; Voet, E. van der; Huppes, G.; Muller, D.B. 2010
