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Rong, Y.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A.; Behrens, P.A. 2022

The statistical projection of global GHG emissions from a consumption perspective

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Deetman, S.P.; Merciai, S.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2021

Global distribution of material inflows to in-use stocks in 2011 and its implications for a circularity transition

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Around 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in-use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows... Show moreAround 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in-use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows to in-use stocks are a key component in the circularity transition, since the reintegration of those materials back into the economy, at the end of the stock's life cycle, means that less extraction of raw materials is required. Thus, understanding the geographical, material, and sectoral distribution of material inflows to in-use stocks globally is crucial for circular economy policies. Here we quantify the geographical, material, and sectoral distributions of material inflows to in-use stocks of 43 countries and 5 rest-of-the-world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid units input-output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Among all regions considered, China shows the largest amount of material added to in-use stocks in 2011 (around 46% of global material inflows to in-use stocks), with a per capita value that is comparable to high income regions such as Europe and North America. In these latter regions, more than 90% of in-use stock additions are comprised of non-metallic minerals (e.g., concrete, brick/stone, asphalt, and aggregates) and steel. We discuss the importance of understanding the distribution and composition of materials accumulated in society for a circularity transition. We also argue that future research should integrate the geographical and material resolution of our results into dynamic stock-flow models to determine when these materials will be available for recovery and recycling. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described in http://jie.click/badges Show less

Zhong, X.; Hu, M.; Deetman, S.P.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Lin, H.; Tukker, A.; Behrens, P.A. 2021

The evolution and future perspectives of energy intensity in the global building sector 1971–2060

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Energy efficiency plays an essential role in energy conservation and emissions mitigation efforts in the building sector. This is especially important considering that the global building stock is... Show moreEnergy efficiency plays an essential role in energy conservation and emissions mitigation efforts in the building sector. This is especially important considering that the global building stock is expected to rapidly expand in the years to come. In this study, a global-scale modeling framework is developed to analyze the evolution of building energy intensity per floor area during 1971-2014, its relationship with economic development, and its future role in energy savings across 21 world regions by 2060. Results show that, for residential buildings, while most high-income and upper-middle-income regions see decreasing energy intensities and strong decoupling from economic development, the potential for further efficiency improvement is limited in the absence of significant socioeconomic and technological shifts. Lower-middle-income regions, often overlooked in analyses, will see large potential future residential energy savings from energy intensity reductions. Harnessing this potential will include, among other policies, stricter building efficiency standards in new construction. For the commercial sector, during 1971-2014, the energy intensity was reduced by 50% in high-income regions but increased by 193% and 44% in upper-middle and lower-middle-income regions, respectively. Given the large energy intensity reduction potential and rapid floor area growth, commercial buildings are increasingly important for energy saving in the future. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less

Yuan, R.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Wang, J.; Tukker, A.; Behrens, P.A. 2021

A global overview of developments of urban and rural household GHG footprints from 2005 to 2015

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Boer, B.F. de; Rietveld, E.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2021

Global environmental and socio-economic impacts of a transition to a circular economy in metal and electrical products: a Dutch case study

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Aguilar Hernandez, G.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2020

Macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of a circular economy up to 2050: A meta-analysis of prospective studies

Article / Letter to editor

open access

The potential impacts on gross domestic product, employment, and carbon emissions of implementing a circular economy have been modelled at the national and multiregional levels using multiple scenarios. However, there is still no consensus on the magnitude of the impacts of a transition to a circular economy and on whether it will generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation in terms of macroeconomic, social and environmental benefits. In this paper, we review more than 300 circular economy scenarios in the time frame from 2020 to 2050. We classify each scenario according to the degree of intervention (i.e. ambitious or moderate), and perform a meta-analysis of the changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO2 emissions generated by each circular economy scenario compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Among other results, we find that in 2030 the implementation of ambitious circular economy scenarios could generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation with marginal or incremental changes in gross domestic product (median (mdn) = 2.0%; interquartile range (IQR) = [0.4–4.6]%) and employment (mdn = 1.6%; IQR = [0.9–2.0]%), while reducing CO2 emissions in a more substantial way (mdn = −24.6%; IQR = -[34.0–8.2]%). Furthermore, we discuss the modelling features (e.g. resource taxes, technology changes, and consumption patterns) suggested in the literature which yield the greatest changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO2 emissions. The outcomes of this paper are relevant to the scientific community and policy makers for understanding the magnitude of the macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of circular economy scenarios.

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Donati, F.; Niccolson, S.I.; Koning, A. de; Daniels, B.; Christis, M.; Boonen, K.; ... ; Tukker, A. 2020

Modeling the circular economy in environmentally extended input-output: a web application

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Global environmental and resource problems ask for new ways of managing the production and consumption of resources. The implementation of new paradigms, such as the circular economy, requires... Show moreGlobal environmental and resource problems ask for new ways of managing the production and consumption of resources. The implementation of new paradigms, such as the circular economy, requires decision-makers at multiple levels to make complex decisions. For this, clear analyses and modeling of scenarios are of utmost importance. Meanwhile, as the sophistication of databases and models increases so does the need for user-friendly tools to use them. The RaMa-Scene web platform reduces these barriers by allowing users to visualize easily diverse impacts of implementing circular-economy interventions. This online web platform makes use of the multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database EXIOBASE version 3 in monetary units, which has been modified to show explicit transactions of raw materials from recycling activities. Show less

Aguilar-Hernandez, G.A.; Siguenza-Sanchez, C.P.; Donati, F.; Merciai, S.; Schmidt, J.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2020

Corrigendum to “The circularity gap of nations: a multiregional analysis of waste generation, recovery, and stock depletion in 2011” [Resour. Conserv. Recy. 151 (2019) 104452]

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Refers toGlenn A. Aguilar-Hernandez, Carlos Pablo Sigüenza-Sanchez, Franco Donati, Stefano Merciai, Jannick Schmidt, João F.D. Rodrigues, Arnold TukkerThe circularity gap of nations: A... Show moreRefers toGlenn A. Aguilar-Hernandez, Carlos Pablo Sigüenza-Sanchez, Franco Donati, Stefano Merciai, Jannick Schmidt, João F.D. Rodrigues, Arnold TukkerThe circularity gap of nations: A multiregional analysis of waste generation, recovery, and stock depletion in 2011Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 151, December 2019, Pages 104452https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104452 Show less

Wang, J.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Hu, M.; Behrens, P.A.; Tukker, A. 2019

The evolution of Chinese industrial CO2 emissions 2000–2050: A review and meta-analysis of historical drivers, projections and policy goals

Article / Letter to editor

open access

The emissions of the Chinese industrial sector alone comprise 24.1% of global emissions (7.8 GtCyr−1 in 2015). This makes Chinese industrial emissions of unique national and international relevance... Show moreThe emissions of the Chinese industrial sector alone comprise 24.1% of global emissions (7.8 GtCyr−1 in 2015). This makes Chinese industrial emissions of unique national and international relevance in climate policy. This study reports a literature survey that quantitatively describes the evolution of these emissions from 2000 to 2050 in the context of policy goals. The survey reveals that: (1) The major historical factor contributing to the decrease in industrial CO2 emissions has been the reduction in energy intensities. However, that decrease has been more than compensated for by increases in industrial activity. (2) An ensemble of projections shows that China's industrial emissions will likely peak in 2030, in alignment with China's commitment to the Paris Agreement. The timing of the peak varies across industrial sub-sectors, with ferrous metals and non-metallic products sectors peaking first, and the electricity sector later. (3) The assumptions underlying optimistic scenarios broadly match the drivers of recent decreases in historical emissions (energy intensity, industrial structure and energy mix). Furthermore, these factors feature prominently in China's policy portfolio to both develop and decarbonize the Chinese industrial sector. The industrial carbon intensity targets of 2020 and 2025 are close to the median predictions in the medium scenarios from studies. Show less

Donati, F.; Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Sigüenza-Sánchez, C.P.; Koning, A. de; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2019

Modeling the circular economy in environmentally extended input-output tables: Methods, software and case study

Article / Letter to editor

open access

A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention or design. During the last decade, the circular economy became an attractive paradigm to increase global... Show moreA circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention or design. During the last decade, the circular economy became an attractive paradigm to increase global welfare while minimizing the environmental impacts of economic activities. Although several studies concerning the potential benefits and drawbacks of policies that implement the new paradigm have been performed, there is currently no standardized theoretical model or software to execute such assessment. In order to fill this gap, in the present paper we show how to perform these analyses using Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis. We also describe a python package (pycirk) for modeling Circular Economy scenarios in the context of the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output database EXIOBASE V3.3, for the year 2011. We exemplify the methods and software through a what-if zero-cost case study on two circular economy strategies (Resource Efficiency and Product Lifetime Extension), four environmental pressures and two socio-economic factors. Show less

Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Yuan, R.; Lin, H.X. 2019

The expectations of and covariances between carbon footprints

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Carbon footprints and other environmentally extended input-output indicators are obtained as aggregations of emissions embodied in supply chains (EESCs), which express the emissions occurring in a... Show moreCarbon footprints and other environmentally extended input-output indicators are obtained as aggregations of emissions embodied in supply chains (EESCs), which express the emissions occurring in a specific production activity to satisfy a given volume of final demand. Here we derive theoretical approximations of the expectations of and covariances between EESCs, as a function of the expectations of and covariances between source data (technical coefficients, emission coefficients, and final demand volumes) through a Taylor expansion. We report an empirical test of those approximations, using a sample of 5 global multi-regional input-output models in the year 2007, of which we extract 22 single-region input-output systems with 17 sectors. We find that approximations of multipliers perform better than those of EESC, and approximations of expectations perform better than those of covariances. Show less

Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Siguenza -Sanchez, C.P.; Donati, F.; Merciai, S.; Schmidt, J.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2019

The circularity gap of nations: A multiregional analysis of waste generation, recovery, and stock depletion in 2011

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Due to increased policy attention on circular economy strategies, many studies have quantified material use and recovery at national and global scales. However, there has been no quantitative... Show moreDue to increased policy attention on circular economy strategies, many studies have quantified material use and recovery at national and global scales. However, there has been no quantitative analysis of the unrecovered waste that can be potentially reintegrated into the economy as materials or products. This can be interpreted as the gap of material circularity. In this paper we define the circularity gap of a country as the generated waste, plus old materials removed from stocks and durable products disposed (i.e. stock depletion), minus recovered waste. We estimated the circularity gap of 43 nations and 5 rest of the world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid-units input-output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Our results show the trends of circularity gap in accordance to each region. For example, the circularity gaps of Europe and North America were between 1.6–2.2 tonnes per capita (t/cap), which are more than twice the global average gap (0.8 t/cap). Although these regions presented the major amount of material recovery, their circularity gaps were mostly related to the levels of stock depletion. In Africa and Asia-Pacific regions, the circularity gap was characterized by a low degree of recovery and stock depletion, with high levels of generated waste. Moreover, we discuss which intervention types can be implemented to minimize the circularity gap of nations. Show less

Boer, B.F. de; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2019

Modeling reductions in the environmental footprints embodied in European Union's imports through source shifting

Article / Letter to editor

open access

The European Union (EU) is responsible for a disproportionately large share of global environmental footprints, in particular those embodied in trade through its imports. Import embodied footprints... Show moreThe European Union (EU) is responsible for a disproportionately large share of global environmental footprints, in particular those embodied in trade through its imports. Import embodied footprints (IEFs) vary significantly depending on the country of origin, and therefore can be reduced through source shifting. We explore the impacts of shifting imports to the countries with lowest impact intensities per M€ according to four environmental pressures (carbon emissions, materials, water, and land), using Environmentally Extended Multi Regional Input-Output (EEMRIO) analysis. There are significant limitations of EEMRIO analysis (the price and product mix homogeneity assumptions), which we discuss in the paper. We find that a limited set of 13 products, among which food products and chemicals which are not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.), is responsible for more than half of all impacts embodied in imports for each pressure. Except for a few product groups, optimizing sourcing as to minimize impact for one pressure reduces impact in all others. The pressure exhibiting the highest scope for optimization is water. Carbon and material use optimization yields the largest reduction in other environmental pressures. We discuss increasing the policy relevance of EEMRIO in the case of IEFs by disaggregating n.e.c. product groups, and incorporating dynamic effects. Show less

Wang, J.; Hu, M.; Tukker, A.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F. 2019

The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China's CO2 emissions and emission goals

Article / Letter to editor

open access

In order to respond to climate change, China has committed to reduce national carbon intensity by 40–45% in 2020 and 60–65% in 2030, relative to 2005. Given that energy-intensive industries... Show moreIn order to respond to climate change, China has committed to reduce national carbon intensity by 40–45% in 2020 and 60–65% in 2030, relative to 2005. Given that energy-intensive industries represent ~80% of total CO2 emissions in China and that China is a large and diverse country, this paper aims to investigate the potential contribution of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries to CO2 emissions reduction and to meeting China's emissions goals. To the best of our knowledge this matter has never been explored before. Using panel data from 2001 to 2015, we build three scenarios of future carbon intensities: business as usual (BAU), frontier (based on the directional distance function, in which all regions reach the efficiency frontier) and best available technology (BAT, in which all regions adopt the lowest-emitting technology). The frontier and BAT scenarios represent a weak and a strong form of regional convergence, respectively, and the BAU assumes that it develops following historical patterns. We then use the Kaya identity to estimate CO2 emissions up to 2030 under the three scenarios. Our results are as follows: (1) Under BAU, the CO2 emissions of energy-intensive industries increase from 7382.8 Mt in 2015 to 8127.6 Mt in 2030. Under the frontier scenario the emissions in 2030 are 44.23% lower than under business as usual, while under the BAT scenario this value becomes 84.81%. Electricity and ferrous metals are the sectors that most contribute to the reduction potential. (2) Even under BAU the carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries as a whole and all of its constituent sub-sectors except for electricity will decrease by more than the nationally-mandated averages. (3) Regional convergence could help the energy-intensive industries peak its CO2 emissions before 2030, while under BAU the absolute emissions of the energy-intensive industries keep increasing. Show less

Qian, Y.; Behrens, P.A.; Tukker, A.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Pinke, L.; Scherer, L.A. 2018

Environmental responsibility for sulfur dioxide emissions and associated biodiversity loss across Chinese provinces

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Recent years have witnessed a growing volume in Chinese interregional trade, along with the increasing disparities in environmental pressures. This has prompted an increased attention on where the... Show moreRecent years have witnessed a growing volume in Chinese interregional trade, along with the increasing disparities in environmental pressures. This has prompted an increased attention on where the responsibilities for environmental impacts should be placed. In this paper, we quantify the environmental responsibility of SO2 emissions and biodiversity impacts due to terrestrial acidification at the provincial level for the first time. We examine the environmental responsibility from the perspectives of production, consumption, and income generation by employing a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model for 2007, 2010, and 2012. The results indicate that ~40% of SO2 emissions were driven by the consumption in provinces other than where the emissions discharged. In particular, those developed provinces were net importers of SO2 emissions and mainly outsourced their emissions to nearby developing provinces. Over the period of analysis, environmental inequality among 30 provinces was larger than GDP inequality. Furthermore, environmental inequality continued to increase while GDP inequality decreased over the time period. The results of a shared income- and consumption-based responsibility approach suggest that the environmental responsibility of SO2 emissions and biodiversity impacts for developed provinces can reach up to ~4- to 93-fold the environmental pressure occurred within those provinces. This indicates that under these accounting principles the developed northern provinces in China would bear a much larger share of the environmental responsibility. Show less

Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Moran, D.; Wood, R.; Behrens, P.A. 2018

Uncertainty of Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Yuan, R.; Behrens, P.A.; Tukker, A.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F. 2018

Carbon overhead : The impact of the expansion in low-carbon electricity in China 2015 – 2040

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Yuan, R.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Behrens, P.A. 2018

Impact of non-fossil electricity on the carbon emissions embodied in China's exports

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Yuan, R.; Behrens, P.A.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F. 2018

The evolution of inter-sectoral linkages in China's energy-related CO2emissions from 1997 to 2012

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Energy-related CO2emissions in China have been extensively investigated. However, the mechanisms of how energy-related emissions are driven by inter-sectoral linkages remains unexplored. In this... Show moreEnergy-related CO2emissions in China have been extensively investigated. However, the mechanisms of how energy-related emissions are driven by inter-sectoral linkages remains unexplored. In this paper, a subsystem input-output model was developed to investigate the temporal and sectoral changes of emissions in China from 1997 to 2012. We decomposed total emissions into internal, spillover, feedback, and direct components. Our results show that the equipment manufacturing, construction and services sectors are the main sources of emissions during the whole period, which have a larger spillover component, primarily through indirect upstream emissions in the heavy-manufacturing, transportation, and power sectors. The emissions from the power and transportation sectors are dominated by direct rather than the spillover emissions. The shares of the feedback and internal components in the heavy manufacturing sectors were significantly higher than those of other sectors. Our results suggest that further addressing carbon emissions along the supply chain of equipment manufacturing, construction and services sectors, and improving technologies in the heavy manufacturing and power sectors holds important future opportunities for curbing the rapid growth of carbon emissions in China. Show less

Yuan, R.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A.; Behrens, P. 2018

The impact of the expansion in non-fossil electricity infrastructure on China's carbon emissions

Article / Letter to editor

open access

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