A statistical approach to infer causal effects of the Chinese publication growth on bibliometric impact measures

Abstract

The unprecedented growth of Chinese publications, understood as a macro level intervention on the global bibliometric universe, is analysed on its causal effects on the bibliometric measurement process. By their size and particular bibliometric characteristics these publications might not be considered as marginal, but impose a structural change upon all countries contributing to the global science system. A causal analysis is conducted based upon the statistical approach of treatment effects models. In detail a counterfactual bibliometric world without Chinese publications is artificially constructed and contrasted with the actual equivalent. We observe that the Chinese publications cause an increase in the expected citation counts as they included above average numbers of references. At the same time the citations of Chinese publications are especially focused upon scientifically leading, as well as Asian countries, resulting in an increase in their measured impact. But as any identification of a causal effect via statistical means arises as an interpretation, we subsequently discuss the limitation of our approach namely the imperfect knowledge on the counterfactual state and any implications arising for further causal evaluations, i.e. the Chinese publication growth illustrates only one of several structural effects concurrently driving the evolution of the bibliometric universe.