Urban efficiency and rural redundancy: global transportation infrastructure resource demand from 2010–2070

Author(s):
Engelenburg, M. van (0009-0005-9775-0653); Voet, E. van der (0000-0003-0788-9570); Deetman, S.P. (0000-0002-1820-658X); Fishman, T. (0000-0003-4405-2382); Behrens, P.A. (0000-0002-2935-4799); Berrill, P.
Published
2026
Publication type
Article / Letter to editor

Abstract

Transportation infrastructure stocks are a large share of global material stock, comprising around

30%–50% of global material stock. As emerging economies expand and developed nations have

growing maintenance needs, increasing material demand presents a critical barrier to decarbon-

ising the built environment. Using a stock-driven material flow analysis model based on infras- tructure stock data from 8872 urban areas and rural regions, under an SSP2 scenario for trans- port demand, we identify a population shift toward urban areas leading to increased resource requirements in urban areas, and an increase of total infrastructure stocks to 494 Gt between 2024 and 2070. While urban areas demonstrate a density advantage, depopulating rural areas face an increasing material inefficiency. Material demand related to transport infrastructure expansion is concentrated in the Global South, whereas Global North materials are mainly used for mainte- nance and increasing stocks of underutilised assets in rural areas. A spatial challenge exists of pro- viding the resources in the right place.

UrbanisationTransportation infrastructureSocio-economic metabolismMaterial stocks and flowsBuilt Environment
Date issued
2026-08-19
Language
English
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Is part of
Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability (2026), 035013
Advanced publication
Yes
hdl
1887/5004283
doi
10.1088/2634-4505/ae9642
URL
10.1088/2634-4505/ae9642
URL
https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ae9642

Funding

Sponsorship
Horizon 2020(H2020)
Grant number
101056868