Yes, no, maybe? Explaining the positions of political parties on EU enlargement in the 2024 EP elections

Abstract

While the rapid acknowledgment of four new candidate member states sheds light on the European Commission’s effort to expand the EU, scholars anticipate challenges for the future of EU enlargement tied to the significant gains of Eurosceptic parties in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections. Yet, little is known about party positioning on enlargement, and what factors influence these positions. To address this gap, we created an original dataset based on the enlargement positions of 107 political parties from the 27 EU member states elected to the 2024–2029 EP as stated in their 2024 EP election manifesto. The results reveal that 11 of these political parties oppose enlargement, eight support it, and 88 adopt a conditional stance based on various requirements. In line with our expectations, we find that national economic benefits and public opinion positively influence a political party’s position on enlargement. Additionally, party ideology shapes enlargement positions, with TAN-aligned parties more likely to oppose it. Contrary to our expectations, national security concerns show no significant effect. All in all, these findings demonstrate that the 2024–2029 EP will assess the terms of enlargement critically when the matter is brought to the agenda.