Probabilistic evaluation of integrated safety–security protection plans for process facilities

Marroni, G.; Kuipers, S.; Landucci, G.; Casson Moreno, V.

doi:doi:10.1111/risa.70230

The assessment of accident scenarios associated with intentional attacks to chemical and process facilities has garnered the attention of institutions and practitioners because of the exacerbation of conflicts in critical contexts. In this perspective, it is important to create a framework for the integration of conventional safety approaches, dealing with unintentional events, and security science, dealing with the analysis of intentional threats. More specifically, effective protection strategies for industrial facilities require an integrated approach that combines safety and security measures. This work proposes a methodology to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such strategies using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks (BN). The methodology incorporates attack scenarios, escalation scenarios, and the probabilistic performance of integrated safety–security barriers into a cost–benefit analysis. A dedicated cost–benefit function quantifies the economic benefits...Show moreThe assessment of accident scenarios associated with intentional attacks to chemical and process facilities has garnered the attention of institutions and practitioners because of the exacerbation of conflicts in critical contexts. In this perspective, it is important to create a framework for the integration of conventional safety approaches, dealing with unintentional events, and security science, dealing with the analysis of intentional threats. More specifically, effective protection strategies for industrial facilities require an integrated approach that combines safety and security measures. This work proposes a methodology to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such strategies using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks (BN). The methodology incorporates attack scenarios, escalation scenarios, and the probabilistic performance of integrated safety–security barriers into a cost–benefit analysis. A dedicated cost–benefit function quantifies the economic benefits of damage reduction relative to the cost of protection strategies. A demonstrative case study evaluates different protection plans, including fireproofing and video motion detection systems. The results highlight the effectiveness of integrated safety–security measures in mitigating damage probability and controlling escalation scenarios. This methodology provides a systematic tool for plant managers and practitioners to assess and compare the economic efficiency of safety and security protection plans. It bridges key gaps in the integration of safety and security analyses, offering insights into the protection of critical infrastructures.
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Probabilistic evaluation of integrated safety–security protection plans for process facilities

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