From bumblebee to bee: expert views on the future of Economic and Monetary Union

Abstract

Do experts believe that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) delivers value to EU citizens? Do they believe EMU is sustainable given its current architecture? Drawing on an expert survey (N = 348) that we circulated in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal in 2021, we find that a large majority of experts believe that EMU has benefitted the Euro Area, yet that EMU is not sustainable in its current form. A majority agrees that each of these three potential changes would make EMU sustainable: if the EU establishes (i) stronger mechanisms to enforce structural reforms in member states, (ii) more automatic stabilisers are introduced at the EU level, and (iii) a proper fiscal union with significant additional EU fiscal powers. Ordered logit regressions reveal that nationality and political orientation explain some of the variation in expert responses. The findings confirm that there is indeed such a thing as ‘expert consensus’. Experts see a need for deeper integration to make the euro sustainable. They overwhelmingly believe that fiscal union would establish a sustainable EMU. There are still some striking differences across experts, depending on their country of work or political orientation, which provides us insights into the literatures on epistemic communities and socialisation.