Similar cases, different punishment: case matching as a method for understanding differing detention population trends between the Netherlands and Belgium

Abstract

This study examines the significant disparity in prison population trends between the Netherlands and Belgium over the past two decades. Using a unique qualitative case-matching approach, it compares 40 thoroughly matched criminal cases across four offence categories – theft and (violent) property offences, drug offences, sexual offences and homicide offences – to examine differences in sentencing and sentence implementation in both countries. The findings show that, in the 40 matched cases, Belgian judges and juries imposed substantially longer and more severe prison sentences compared with the Dutch judges. However, Belgium’s implementation practices, shaped by concerns over prison overcrowding, mitigate some of these differences. The possible causes underlying these differences in sentencing and sentence implementation are discussed, drawing on both the formal legal and cultural contexts of the two countries. This study contributes to our understanding of the varying trends in prison populations by employing case matching. We conclude that prison population size and composition are shaped by cumulative decision-making across all stages of the criminal justice process. While in the Netherlands, cell capacity was already considered in the earlier stages of decision-making, in Belgium, measures to alleviate the pressure on prison capacity were only taken in the enforcement phase. Therefore, the analysis also underscores the importance of incorporating the sentence implementation phase in comparative research on differences in punishment, as this dimension may reveal significantly different outcomes