Stuck on the stairway of change: the EU’s enlargement and security and defence policies post 2022

Abstract

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has taken a number of unprecedented decisions. These decisions and policy measures have involved key EU policies, above all the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and enlargement. Has the external shock of the war created conditions for these policies to take a new path? Has the war been a ‘critical juncture’ for one or both of these policies? This article proposes a ‘stairway of change’ framework building on institutionalist literature to explore the nature of change. Applying this framework, the article addresses the question of the sustainability and scope of the policy changes in CFSP/CSDP and enlargement by analysing discourses, decisions, policy measures and funding. It is concluded that while there have been significant shifts in these, both policies remain stuck somewhere on the stairway towards sustainable change.