Fiscal preferences in context: fiscal rules, political agendas, policy salience, and the mass politics of public debt

Abstract

In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, European governments have accumulated record levels of public debt, reigniting debates about fiscal policymaking. The challenge of restoring debt sustainability while addressing urgent policy demands—ranging from demographic shifts and military expenditure to economic recovery and social welfare—has placed fiscal policy at the heart of both political and academic discourse. Public opinion on fiscal priorities and debt reduction strategies influences which policies are feasible and at what political costs, raising crucial questions about the drivers of fiscal policy preferences. Moving beyond individual characteristics, this dissertation examines how broader contextual factors shape mass attitudes towards fiscal policies. Fiscal preferences do not form in a vacuum but are embedded within institutional constraints, competing political agendas, and policy trade-offs. The dissertation explores these dynamics through three independent but interconnected studies, each using experimental methods to establish causal relationships between fiscal attitudes and the broader context in which fiscal policymaking takes place, focusing in particular on attitudes towards austerity measures, i.e., spending cuts and tax increases.