Still a useful myth? NATO’s theater nuclear weapons as tools of alliance management

Abstract

What is the role of the US theater nuclear weapons (TNW) currently stationed in Europe? Open-source intelligence experts estimate that five European NATO member states host approximately 100 US nuclear bombs under a series of nuclear-sharing arrangements. The presence of these deployments has garnered renewed attention since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While advocates and opponents of NATO’s TNW mission focus primarily on the value of these weapons in terms of deterrence or reassurance, this article takes a different perspective. It argues that US TNW stationed in Europe are primarily tools of alliance management and introduces three distinct mechanisms through which they serve this purpose: nuclear deflection, nuclear legitimation, and nuclear consultation. By focusing on these functions, this article draws attention to the main barriers that produce continuity and complicate changes in NATO’s nuclear posture. The article also advances understanding of the drivers of nuclear posture by emphasizing alliance management as a factor that has received insufficient scholarly attention.