A framework for guiding safe and sustainable‐by‐design innovation

Abstract

Assessing the safety and sustainability of novel technologies while they are still inthe early research and development stages is the most effective way to avoid unde-sired outcomes. However, the journey from idea to market is highly uncertain andinvolves intensive trial and error as technology developers attempt to optimize mate-rial choices and product configurations. Designs evolve quickly, and assessing theirrisks and impacts while numerous factors remain undetermined is challenging. Thestandard practice is to evaluate a limited subset of scenarios that can guide designchoices. However, selecting scenarios from hundreds of undetermined factors withouta systematic sensitivity screening may leave out important improvement opportuni-ties. To provide well-informed guidance, the evaluated scenarios should be selectedbased on factors that are most influential to the safety and sustainability impactsof the technology. We propose an approach that accomplishes this by incorporatinga wide spectrum of undetermined factors, both intrinsic and extrinsic to the tech-nology design. The assessment models are then screened for highly-sensitive factorsusing global sensitivity analysis. Strategies to reduce uncertainty on highly influen-tial factors are proposed for subsequent iterations, and the residual factors for whichuncertainty cannot be further reduced yet remain influential are selected as a basisfor proposed “sensitive scenarios” and improvement roadmaps. We demonstrate theframework with an emerging photovoltaics case study. Over a hundred uncertain fac-tors are reduced to less than five which, if optimized, would substantially improve thefuture safety and sustainability performance of the technology as well as reduce theuncertainty around it.