Armed non-state actors in conflict: strategic decision-making in the 2014 IS-KRI conflict

Doctoral Thesis

The study explains the strategic decision-making of the armed non-state actors (ANSAs) the Islamic State (IS) and the Kurdistan Region in Iraq (KRI) during their mutual conflict in 2014, using well-established International Relations (IR) paradigms. The study incorporates the IR paradigms into a complexity theory approach – assuming time-, space-, and context-specific factors and multi-level and multi-directional processes – to offer the most conclusive insight in IS' and the KRI’s strategic decisions. No methodological objections exist to applying IR paradigms or complexity theory to ANSAs. As such, the study contributes to understanding the under-researched subject of ANSAs’ strategic decision-making within IR and indicates that ANSAs’ strategic decision-making is as complex as that of states. This finding questions the state-non-state dichotomy. Strategic factors, such as geography, population, economy, allies, and decision-making processes proved important for the ANSAs’...Show moreThe study explains the strategic decision-making of the armed non-state actors (ANSAs) the Islamic State (IS) and the Kurdistan Region in Iraq (KRI) during their mutual conflict in 2014, using well-established International Relations (IR) paradigms. The study incorporates the IR paradigms into a complexity theory approach – assuming time-, space-, and context-specific factors and multi-level and multi-directional processes – to offer the most conclusive insight in IS' and the KRI’s strategic decisions. No methodological objections exist to applying IR paradigms or complexity theory to ANSAs. As such, the study contributes to understanding the under-researched subject of ANSAs’ strategic decision-making within IR and indicates that ANSAs’ strategic decision-making is as complex as that of states. This finding questions the state-non-state dichotomy. Strategic factors, such as geography, population, economy, allies, and decision-making processes proved important for the ANSAs’ strategic decision-aking, just like friction, doctrine, and culture. The strategic factors also affected other strategic factors. Additionally, the study found that both IS and the KRI – despite their grand strategies – preferred short-term successes, unintentionally limiting long-term strategic successes. Complexity theory offers opportunities for future research to ANSAs, for example including kinship or religion into the IR approach used in this study.
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Armed Non-State Actor

Islamic State

Kurdistan Region in Iraq

Iraq

Syria

Complexity Theory

Rational Actor Paradigm

Organizational Behavior Paradigm

Governmental Politics Paradigm