Gas wars: a two-level analysis of Ukraine’s bargaining position in the 2006 and 2009 energy conflicts with Russian Federation

Abstract

This work highlights and analyzes the key factors that underpinned Ukraine's bargaining position during the 2006 and 2009 gas disputes with Russia. It utilizes a historical approach driven by Robert Putnam's Two-Level Game Theory. Putnam's framework provides a guiding map to examine the combined impact of domestic and international variables. Ukraine has traditionally been the main transit corridor in the Europe-Russia gas trade. The trade has significantly impacted Ukraine's political development, powering the rise of key business/political groupings which have defined the country’s post-Soviet political context. It has also arguably been the most important component in bilateral relations between Kyiv and Moscow, prior to the February 24, 2022, invasion. The survey exposes the roles played by formal actors and institutions, as well as the actions of informal oligarchic structures which have been highly influential in Ukrainian politics. These groupings have had a crucial impact on the country's energy policy and have impacted its negotiating stance during the two crises. Such formations have also been utilized by the Russian side to further Gazprom’s economic interests and the Kremlin’s geopolitical goals. The study shows how the agreements which ended the 2006 and 2009 conflicts never fully resolved the contradictions in the gas relations between Kyiv and Moscow.