Making nonresident citizens’ votes count: external voting in Latin American and Southern European Countries (1962-2021)

Abstract

What explains nonresident citizens’ voter turnout and which effects do overseas votes generate in homeland politics? Using a multi-method strategy that encompasses 3 cross-sectional time-series datasets, 50 semi-structured interviews, the analysis of official documents and party manifestos, this dissertation examines nonresident citizens’ voter turnout in Latin America and Southern Europe. The results are abundant. First, the author finds that registration rules, compulsory voting, concurrent elections, voting methods, and democratic quality have a meaningful impact on nonresident citizens’ voter turnout. Second, in this dissertation, there is an in-depth understanding of the different incentives, opportunities, and constraints associated with nonresident citizens’ voter turnout, including the role of homeland authorities and de facto practices to promote and/or to organize elections abroad. Third, the author unpacks swing, interregnum, incumbency, and feedback effects from a comparative quantitative logic. Correspondingly, this study suggests that parties, homeland politicians, and policymakers seek to avoid unwanted consequences controlling or influencing the political agenda. Both a sizable nonresident population and a high number of overseas votes have a moderate but significant impact on election results, either changing or not the bargaining among party organizations to govern. Lastly, this dissertation explores three pathways to analyze non-resident citizens’ voter turnout over time.