Wisselende kiezers bij de verkiezingen van 23 maart 1966

Abstract

(1) The Provinciale Staten (Provincial Estates) elections of March 23, 1966 resulted in the largest shifts in the relative strength of the participating political parties after the second world war (Table I). The following points are discussed; a. The number of floating voters, the directions of their floating and their motives; b. these changes more specifically as an explanation of the losses and gains in electoral strength of four parties (Labour, Pacifist Socialist, Farmers and Liberals); c. the influence on the floating voters of the newspaper combination De Telegraaf/Het Nieuws van de Dag. (2) Use has been made of relevant questions and answers in interviews from a research project intended to clarify the nature of the floating voter as such. (3) The project being a follow-up study confined to Amsterdam the conclusions are only applicable to Amsterdam and that part of the Amsterdam electorate that already had the right to vote in May 1963. (4) As far as party choice is concerned the sample appears to be reasonably representative of election results in 1966 and 1963 (Table III). Gomplementary data on first time voters (in 1966) were obtained from another research project. Addition of these data made the sample slightly more representative (Table IV). (5) In this sample of 764 voters at least 16,05% of them must have floated to obtain the changes between 1963 and 1966 in relative strength of the parties, as represented in the sample. The actual floaters in the sample add up to 31,7% of the sample. The minimal amount of floaters sufficient to explain the shifts in the Amsterdam electorate being 15,1%, the number of floaters in that electorate must have been somewhere in the neigbourhood of 30%. That is 30% of about 90% of the total electorate, the 10% first time voters nog having been taken into account. Therefore, between 35% and 40% of the total Amsterdam electorate must, for one reason or another, have changed its electoral behaviour in 1966 as compared to its behaviour in 1963 (Table V) (6) _ 7. — 8. — 9. A survey is made of the motives of the main groups of floaters in the sample. (10) About 45% of the sample either subscribes to or regularly reads one of the two newspapers of the Telegraaf combination; 60% of the floaters in the sample are to be found in this group. A relative large number of those who floated away from the Labour Party and of those who floated towards the Farmers Party are also found in this group. The two newspapers continuously attacked the Labour Part;’ over a period of a year and gave ample coverage to the Farmers Party since 1963.