Policy documents and the beliefs of foreign policy decision-makers: a next step in operational code analysis

Abstract

As a psychological approach to foreign policy analysis, operational code analysis (OCA) has traditionally focused on individual leaders. In this chapter, we aim to expand the scope of OCA to the analysis of foreign policy and security documents. We argue that the beliefs of leaders impact their policy choices. We expect these beliefs to be reflected subsequently in the policy documents of their administrations. To test our argument, we compare the operational codes of US presidents Bush (43rd), Obama, and Trump with the operational codes of their administration's key foreign policy documents. The objective is to discover whether similar patterns exist between the operational codes of the US presidents and their policy papers. With this chapter, we aim to explore a new research avenue that can potentially allow us to better explain foreign policy-making. The chapter concludes with a reflection on the limits and opportunities of extending OCA to policy documents.