Transforming financial governance in Central and Eastern Europe: liquidity management before EU enlargement

Abstract

The widespread presence of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) was seen as a potential source of instability during the financial crisis of 2008/09. However, foreign banks acted primarily as a stabilizing force by supporting their subsidiaries and forwarding liquidity, rather than cutting and running. In doing so they closed a significant gap in the EU’s financial stability framework and prevented both a worse financial crisis and currency crises in the new member states. In this paper, I argue that the expectation that foreign banks would step in as private lenders-of-last-resort was exactly the reason why CEE policymakers had encouraged foreign bank entry around the year 2000. Their policy frameworks looked unsuitable for withstanding a financial crisis, but this was the result of rule and policy transfers from the EU which did not take these unique market structures into account. Indeed, already by 2004 it was clear that foreign banks would manage liquidity conditions in CEE and that monetary policy would, at best, accommodate that. The theoretical contribution based on this is that financial market structures developed to be a pillar of the regional financial system in their own right. Although they emerged without central guidance, high levels of foreign bank ownership had the effect of aligning expectations and resulted in material support during the financial crisis. Balance-of-Payments support, it follows, is not just the result of official cooperation; private actors may wield more control over liquidity conditions than central banks.