A question based approach to drug development

Abstract

As shown in the previous case study, changing the development plan from phase/time oriented to question based can improve the insights on the information that needs to be obtained and will help display the priorities within the program. In conventional phase-based drug development, timing is not the most important issue, as long as studies are performed rapidly. In this thesis, it is shown that the order in which studies are performed has a significant impact on the efficiency and quality of the drug development process. The impact of this novel approach can best be demonstrated by calculation of the financial consequences of resolving the right questions at the right time, during the development of new compounds. This calculation is based on the real-option theory, applied to drug development questions. Simple decision analyses suffice to determine the best sequence of research projects, and detailed pharmaco-economic models are unnecessary for this purpose. The thesis also provides some examples of research projects that were performed at different stages of drug development, with widely different consequences for the values of the projects concerned