Dynamic material flow analysis to support sustainable built environment development

Hu, M. (2010)

Doctoral Thesis

Sustainability challenges raised by built environment development are two-folds: on the inflow side these include resource depletion and emission problems due to material production (pre-use); on the outflow side they include problems of construction and demolition waste (after-use). Understanding how the future construction inflow and demolition outflow will develop is essential for early recognition of these problems. A traditional approach is through extrapolation, which is risky because changes of trends may occur. A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis approach, based on the Law of Mass Preservation, provides a better framework for long-term projection. The challenge is to understand the dynamics of the built environment stocks. It is especially true for the emerging countries, where the combined influences of rapid economic development and urbanization have to be considered but are yet rarely investigated. This thesis develops the currently available approaches by including general socio-economic and specific urbanization-driven factors in China. Case studies on Chinese housing stock dynamics indicate: demolition activities in Chinese cities will continue to grow throughout the rest of the 21st century; a shrinking demand for residential steel may be expected over the next few decades, which may lead to a decrease in global steel consumption of up to 10%.

• Industrial Ecology
• Dynamic modeling
• Trends
• Urbanization
• GDP
• Longevity
• Iron and steel
• concrete
• Housing
• China

• All authors: Hu, M.
• Supervisor: Verduyn Lunel, S.M.; Haas, M.
• Co-supervisor: Voet, E. van der; Huppes, G.
• Committee: Müller, D.B.; Ren, H.; Liu, G.
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Instititute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Faculty of Sciences, Leiden University
• Date: 2010-05-18
• ISBN (print): 9789051911671
• Court: Universiteit Leiden