Systems analysis of stock buffering: development of a dynamic substance flow-stock model for the identification and estimation of future resource, waste streams and emissions

Elshkaki, A. (2007)

Doctoral Thesis

The research presented in this thesis falls within a relatively new scientific field of research: Industrial Ecology, which is concerned with studying society’s metabolism to analyze the causes of environmental problems and indicate possibilities for more sustainable management of materials. The research is aimed at developing a dynamic substance flow-stock model that can be used to estimate future resource availability, emissions and waste streams. The developed model extends the currently available SFA models in three respects. Firstly, by combining flows and stocks. Secondly, it combines physical and economic elements. And thirdly, it operates at two levels: those of products and substances. The model has been applied to two case studies aimed at evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of the developments of lead flows and stocks and investigating the potential long-term impact of the use of platinum in fuel cell technology. The main outcome of the lead model suggests that in the Netherlands the amount of lead available for recycling is expected to exceed its demand. If comparable developments can be detected on a larger scale, the landfill and incineration streams might increase at the expense of recycling and consequently an increase in emissions. The outcome of the platinum model suggests that the identified resources of platinum will be depleted before the end of the century if no additional measures are taken. Moreover, the increased production of platinum will not have major consequences for the co-produced copper cycle. For nickel, the supply from platinum ores is expected to exceed its demand, which will have profound consequences for both the primary mining and the recycling of nickel.

• Dynamic
• Emissions
• Flow
• Heavy Metals
• Industrial Ecology
• Modelling
• Resources
• Stock
• Substance Flow Analysis
• Waste

• All authors: Elshkaki, A.
• Supervisor: Udo de Haes, H.A.
• Co-supervisor: Voet, E. van der; Pulles, M.P.J.
• Committee: Ishikawa, M.; Louw, R.; Reedijk, J.
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Institute of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Leiden University
• Date: 2007-09-06
• ISBN (print): 9789090220840
• Court: LEI Universiteit Leiden